Laika

It's tough to know anything The offense was bad at the group level in 2023, that's a red flag. They have had issues developing elite prospects, that's a red flag. They have had issues developing pitching of any variety and have largely been signing them, that's a red flag. There are also some green flags over the recent years of course. Like, good at identifying the right free agents to sign and stuff like that. They've done some good worth with certain pitchers, like Kikuchi. The MiLB depth is underappreciated and is finally good and there is a thick group of relievers and infielders coming.

small sample size, bro what was his ERA before 2019?

Yeah that's the joke way to ruin it there is an element of truth to it though. how else to explain the dietary problems. you can build the best sports facility and cafeteria in the world but you don't have strong enough middle managers in place to tell your 95 IQ players to not eat so f***ing much?

But that wouldn't... prove.... anything.... The Cuban is an upside play. It might work out, it might not. Wandy Peralta has parts of 8 MLB seasons under his belt and he has accrued 0.3 fWAR in his whole career. He had a 5.05 FIP in 2023 and was worth negative 0.5 wins by smart WAR. He had a below average stuff+ and location+ in both 2023 and 2022. The Padres just guaranteed him $16.5M because he had a good ERA. That is more money than he has made his entire career. He is 32.5 years old. We basically know that Wandy Peralta sucks.

Nah, Preller is an idiot and he got conned here

This seems completely unnecessary

I think Atkins is just a beta so he has trouble recruiting strong/ambitious dudes. There is likely a lack of "top men" in the org. It takes some bravado to be cutting edge. You need to have conviction, take risks, etc. My guess is Toronto is full of smart people but it probably has post-grad sports science conference vibes most of the time. They may not take enough risks, or something like that. Collecting nerds might not be enough to be elite in MLB. It might only be enough to be a top ~12 org or so. To be truly ELITE as an org you need be able to collect and hire the NERDS WITH THE BIGGEST MUSCLES. THE ALPHA NERDS.

I can't disagree much with this The Jays clearly are not excelling at some of this internal, systemic s***. You can see this in various facets. High performance at the MLB level, gameplan execution, communication, development.

I have a habit of carrying water for Mr. Ross Atkins but I would guess that they've tried a little bit more than that Vlad doesn't exactly strike me as the type of player who is receptive to hitting instruction Some even thought the Jays hitting issues last year were caused in part by having TOO MANY COOKS on the hitting side. Some of those cooks have been younger guys or nerds. They had a Rays style nerd coach.

I agree it's situational deficiency but it's not exactly about PH situations. It also includes the lineup facing those sweeper dominant RHSP.

Some people around here complain about Atkins and Shapiro an awful lot when you could attribute like, 90% of the Jays problems to Vlad Jr. Specifically Vlad Jr. That's just what happens when you have a #1 overall prospect, with generational hitting talent, and you build around them as a "franchise player", and then they end up getting worse as they get more expensive. And then they lay an egg in 2023. There is only so much a front office can do to build around a specific, important, central individual failure like that. Most of the people who are mad at Shatkins think the offense looks mediocre. Would it look mediocre if everything else was the same but Vlad was coming off of a 40 HR, MVP type season? What does 2023 look like if Vlad shows up at all? What does 2022 look like if Vlad doesn't lose 3.5 fWAR off his production? What does 2020 look like if Vlad doesn't enter the league as a disappointing, replacement level groundball machine? Vlad, Vlad, Vlad, Vlad. It's all about VLAD.

All be can hope for is some kind of unwise spending spree, like a mini Cohen season, that ends in disaster and sets them back a bit Go sign Bellinger for $200M to impress the new owner! Matt Chapman for $160M would be a good fit!

It's over.

Okay Mr. Biggio why don't you tell your skinny ass kid to hit 20 homers before you tell me he has 20 HR pop???

They are great at developing PITCHING but a lot of it graduated in 2023. Surely they will pump out some more arms but I am not seeing any ready-made bats to help them out. Most of their interest bats are not 2024 ETAs.

Okay but in reality it's 100 games at third for IKF and maybe 40 for Turner (if we are lucky) then 22 for the lackeys. They ain't paying IKF 2/$15 to be the utility man, lol.

I believe Espinal and Biggio can both be optioned so there is this theoretical roster where someone like JD is the starting 3B out of spring, IKF is the bench infielder/LF, and Ernie Clement is on the bench because he is out of options, and both Biggio and Espinal are in AAA (lmao, eat s***). But not sure if Biggio can be optioned. Seems weird. He might have enough service time to void his options.

Bunch of that has to be bad luck. .115 is just not possible as a true talent BABIP, unless the player is a high school kid or small Japanese woman or something.

He might be a more interesting watch than Biggio or Espinal Espinal can't steal bases or hit homers. At least IKF can swipe a few bags every month. Biggio can just f*** off too. Dude has been getting the STRONG SIDE PLATOON ADVANTAGE for most of his career and he hits like 7 dingers a season. They f***ing suckkkkkkkkkkk. Biggio is only good for walks. IKF actually has a higher maxEV than Espinal. I think the only argument for Espinal offensively is something like, he has a demonstrated ability to hit the gaps for doubles a bit more often? I dunno.

The problem is defense None of these guys should be expected or would project to play a GOOD third base. We have seen Espinal and Biggio there and they are not good entertainment.

No point responding to troll posts But, I still have a decent amount of hope for Varsho, there are a few paths he could take to offensive improvement. His K rate is not a nightmare so he should be able to make enough contact to hit .250 or so. He also has raw pop, as evidenced by his 112.5 maxEV and his 10.2% barrel rate in 2022 In 2020 and 2021 his Pull% was about 37%, but in 2022 and 2023 it ballooned to about 52% His FB rate also ticked up from 42% to 44% in 2022 then 47% in 2023 We all saw the downside of this in 2023! Pop ups, too many can of corn flyballs, and a disastrous .256 BABIP He can do either of these to be better: 1. Lean into his approach even more. Refine this all or nothing, launch baseballs approach. Basic improvement like comfort and putting a few better swings on balls would make him a 30 HR hitter. He would probably hit .230, though. .230/.300/.450. He's like Cal Raleigh, but a CF. 2. Go back to 2021 Daulton Varsho. 7 of his 11 HR that year were actually to CF or LCF/RCF so he still has HR power even if he isn't a pull monster. Letting the ball travel more might lead to a slightly higher BB% as well. I think he could be a .250/.320/.440 guy if he unwound his all or nothing approach just a bit.

Is his ceiling even lower? The Dodgers got the most out of him in 2021 and he played 143 games at 3B, at 36 years old. His offensive skills that year were in line with 2023. He had a -5 UZR/150. He has only played 73 games at 3B since then, across two seasons. What if this f***ing geezer can actually play 80 semi-competent defensive innings at 3B this year, and put up a 120 wRC+? I think 3 WAR is in reach. 4 WAR is hard to fathom but not unfathomable. The World Series will be easy to make

his source was full of s***

Yikes. Yeah, this sounds like a possible 1B/DH profile. Even lumbering RF like Hunter Renfroe tend to enter the league with average-ish sprint speed at least.

ZIPS also likes him, 1.7 fWAR in 507 PA Dude walked more than he struck out in AAA and hit for some power Has done that at a couple levels The flaws are obvious (defensive profile, middling pop, age) but you can't fake this s*** He outhit guys like Matt Walner, Matt Mervis, Miguel Andujar, Bobby Dalbec, Jordan Westburg, etc in AAA in 2023 If Toronto doesn't want to give him a chance he has a guaranteed 500 PA chance with Oakland