Laika

Damn the Rays really sold low on Randy

The Angels are such a clusterf*** though. I wonder if it will actually be better for his development to go back to A&M and their coaches? The risk of injury makes it a dumb decision I guess. Angels will get a comp pick right? But after the 3rd round in 2025.

I guess they could do it Soto - Dominguez - Judge in the OF Stanton DH Rice is the 1B DJLM is just a DFA candidate, eat the contract They could just consider Ben Rice to be a bench piece. Spencer Jones is kind of s***ing the bed in the minors.

But they won't. They'll sign Rhys Hoskins on February 25th and then watch Vlad sign a pillow contract with the Dodgers one week later.

When executives get fired it tends to be sort of sudden. It's not like people in the organization tend to know the dude is a dead man walking. That leads to massive dysfunction. I would not read too much into this.

I guess there are other possibilities. A team like the Giants could make a bid for Vlad. Cardinals. One possibility is that the return for Vlad is one MLB piece + prospects. Like, the Giants throw Lamonte Wade into the deal (decent platoon 1B) or the Cardinals make Nootbaar part of the package.

Astros, Mariners, Brewers, Pirates, Red Sox, Twins, Cubs, Padres Can probably rule out the Brewers and Pirates for financial reasons. Cubs are fringe contenders now so maybe not them. Red Sox, depends on Casas' medicals and that's an in-division trade so not likely at all. Twins have depth on offense so probably not them. Astros, Mariners, Padres.

okay IQ54 is actually funny though

Okay now go find all of the 1B/DH types that were #1 prospects and hit free agency at 27 There are different ways to screen for comps...

I have no clue, it's hard to think of comps most of the CF guys in the last 10 years who derive a lot of value from defense were just kind of cooked by the time they reached FA and no longer 4+ WAR players I think JBJ was just average for a few years before FA. Inciarte extended with Atlanta but was done by the end of that extension. dunno dunno dunno is Matt Chapman actually a comp? sort of

You have to comp him to all those 1B (and Matt Olson) as well as some of the younger "stars" that hit FA at like 26/27 like Harper. It's a really interesting case. His market could really fall anywhere on that spectrum. Wide range. A team would be insane to guarantee him anything close to 10/$300 though

Vlad fWAR vs bWAR career 2019, 0.3 vs. 2.1 2020, 0.3 vs. 0.6 2021, 6.3 vs. 6.7 2022, 3.4 vs. 4.0 2023, 1.3 vs. 2.0 2024, 2.0 vs. 2.5 total, 13.6 vs. 17.8 difference is all defense and baserunning. fangraphs has his defense and baserunning at like -100 runs career (minus ten wins) and baseball reference is not as brutal on him for those things just an illustration of how little differences in the models matter in the BR model he looks more like a 4+ win 1B who had a down year in 2023 in the Fangraphs model he looks more like a 3 win 1B who has downside that is sub replacement level sort of matters a lot; 3 win players are readily available but 4 win players are basically all stars and not readily available (scarcity)

Harper had a f***ing 9 WAR season in the bag though. And more pedigree than Vlad. And no he was not a presumed DH. Just assumed to be a lazy RF at that point.

Did not look like anything but a clean catch live

Dude nuked any chance at a trade with his commentary "“This is it, 2024 is it for me,” Kiermaier said today. “This next week will be very interesting (in terms of a potential trade). But this will be my last year playing. I’m going to give it my all the rest of the year regardless of what situation I’m in. But my body is talking to me now more than ever.”"

Do this and put him in LF I have already emailed Ross with these ideas My friend's cousin's dog walker's husband's niece's best friend's therapist's ex-common law partner's step-son goes to the same pickle ball court as Shapiro's kids so I have connections

Brett Wallace was a plus sized athleisurewear model the last I checked his instagram Travis Darno still plays baseball somewhere, I can't remember where. Europe or something. Kyle Drabek is reportedly still alive

You can look at his LA by time period on Fangraphs though season: 6.5 degrees season up to May 31: 5.9 degrees (11.6% barrel rate) June 1 to present: 7.3 degrees (14.3% barrel rate) just July: 12.2 degrees, 17.6% barrel rate

Step 1 sign him in his current form (3 WAR fat 1B) for 10/$200 Step 2 make him a LF, this instantly turns him into a 4 WAR funny LF (he will be no worse than Davis Schneider, his arm is better, and he sucks at 1B anyway) Step 3 solve the offensive riddle that he is so he is 140+ wRC+ forever profit, ez this guy will end his career as a Manny Ramirez type, universally beloved, and go into Cooperstown with a Blue Jay hat because of this process.

They can command big bonuses but they still fail at an incredibly high rate - much much higher than the Rule 4 draft, even on the high school pick side Just go look at the top bonuses from basically any year. 2016: Kevin Maitan, 4.25M Luis Almanzar, 4M Lazarito Armenteros, 3M Alfredo Rodriguez, 7M Yasel Antuna, 3.9M Abraham Gutierrez, 3.5M 2019 Robert Puason, 5.1M Bayron Lora, 4.2M Erick Pena, 3.8M 2022 Yoelqui Céspedes, OF, Cuba – White Sox ($2,050,000) # More » Oscar Colas, LHP/OF, Cuba -- TBD Wilman Diaz, SS, Venezuela – Dodgers ($2,697,500) # More » Carlos Colmenarez, SS, Venezuela – Rays ($3,000,000) # More » Armando Cruz, SS, Dominican Republic – Nationals ($3,900,000) # More » Cristian Hernandez, SS, Dominican Republic – Cubs ($3,000,000) More » Pedro Leon, OF, Cuba – Astros ($4,000,000) # More » Jesus Galiz, C, Venezuela – Dodgers ($812,500) # More » Rickardo Perez, C, Venezuela – Phillies ($1,000,000) More » Yiddi Cappe, SS, Cuba – Marlins ($3,500,000) # More » Go look up any given year. The league collectively goes like 3/30 on players that get $1M or more and maybe 2/10 on guys who get $2M or more. Possibly not even a success rate that high. So it's not some travesty that Bonnilla sucks or some big whiff. I mean yeah it's a whiff but he had a 90% chance of never making it anyway.

Messina might be a dude Saw tweets that said sitting 94-96 (2500+ RPM), touching 98mph, & a wipeout slider peaking at 89 MPH (2900+).

Davis Schneider 50th percentile sprint speed 42nd percentile arm strength OAA: -1 (40th percentile) UZR/150: -5.9 Vlad 47th percentile sprint speed 78th percentile arm strength OAA: ??? UZR: ??? I can't see why he would be any worse or much worse than Davis Schneider. And I can't see why he would be worse than he is at 1B according to OAA.

Okay I love this idea so much tbh. Vlad in LF would be a dream come true. I think he has the personality for it too. He would be diving everywhere and he has the sprint speed to recover on some bad reads. The arm would be a wild card. Can someone pass this idea along to Ross?

Interesting idea. It would be like Yordan Alvarez. The problem with Vlad at 1B is that he's just bad there by most of the advanced metrics. He looks okay but measures poorly. Yeah if they knew he was going to be a -10 first baseman... what's the point? Should just be a DH or a -15 LF/3B instead.

Yeah so Harper gets more money. But that doesn't mean Vlad doesn't deserve a big deal. Harper was a very bad defender leading up to his free agency and a negative baserunner. His added athleticism helps but I don't know if it creates a massive gulf. He is also now a 1B at 31. Age 20-25 wRC+ Harper, 137, 115, 197, 111, 155, 135 Vlad, 106, 110, 166, 133, 118, 140 132 wRC+ for Vlad in this sample, 21st in baseball 143 wRC+ for Harper, 9th in baseball