Laika

He's looked like a completely different player. He honestly looks like a Joey Votto (that can't hit lefties).

So says the common assumption. I'm not saying that it's old school ******** or anything, but the degree of significance that teams place on it could very well be disproportionate to the actual effect. And judging from that video, it's not exactly an "easy" 89-91 anyway. Looks like a high effort delivery. 6'6" is probably past the point of height being as asset too. Longer levers = more difficult to repeat mechanics and release point. I'll stand by what I said

I blame Travis Snider. Other people might have f***ed him up, sure, but even if that's true, he still let him. Accountability. The likeliest case is that he just didn't ever have the skill set to succeed, anyway.

Is Trey Ball even a consensus pitcher? I remember reading an (older) report that said he had more promise at the plate. Something like "5 tool potential OF with an easy stroke that should add power. Shawn Green look".

He just seems like such typical draft day fools gold to me. Who cares how tall he is? That's a vastly overrated prospect trait. Who cares if he's a two way player? You're only drafting him to do one thing. I also DGAF that he's left handed. A good looking prospect, no doubt, but it just seems like such an old school reach at #10. The usual caveat though - I know nothing.

He's 25 years old and a hair of talent / a league change away from being a lefty Yovani Gallardo. He had a better K rate, BB rate, and xFIP than Matt Moore last year. It's a Dynasty league. Solid SP6 (or whatever) and future play.

He also has a K/9 over 10 and a 3.31 FIP. All of this is meaningless though since it's a puny sample size, save for the context of him potentially losing his rotation spot, which I suppose is still possible but considering that he only allowed 1 run tonight and Allen Webster got shelled in his last spotty, I'm guessing that it won't be particularly imminent.

Right. All team names and owner names are listed on proboards, under "Rosters".

Maybe, if someone gets around to it.

I think this is it. It's lengthy, but it's a decent read. Not exactly elegant (FTMP just a bunch of correlations, regressions, Chi Squareds), but it is very thorough. http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter If anyone just wants the TL;DR conclusion version: "The data speak for themselves. Baseball organizations have been scouting, signing, and developing players based on a fallacious assumption. Shorter pitchers are just as effective and durable as taller pitchers. If a player has the ability to get drafted, then he should be drafted in the round that fits his talent. The opportunity for major-league clubs is currently at its greatest potential. Clubs that value short pitchers with talent have an opportunity similar to those of clubs that, a decade or more ago, valued on-base percentage at a time when many of their competitors did not." It's certainly a good omen for Marcus Stroman and his chances as a starter. Not that I think the Blue Jays were even aware that they were exploiting a potential inefficiency when drafting him or giving him a chance to start.

I don't really get it either. If Scherzer is such a good "get" than how come nobody else was buzzing on him? He racks up the K's, but he can also be a bit of a gas can from time to time, he's a volatile arm, and he looks like a guy who will always be a bit worse than his FIP. There are specific reasons than other people weren't jumping to buy him. Like I said, I had Ellsbury 43 spots higher on my preseason rankings.

Rigorous studies show that pitcher height does not have the significant effect on productiveness or injury proneness that the traditional baseball people seem to think it does. The most significant effect that pitcher height has is on opportunities given. Taller pitchers are drafted higher, and given more opportunities to fail. That's about it. Don't be mislead by anecdotes. I'm thinking of one big study in particular that I'll have to dig up later. Late for work.

Relievers will show lots of ERA variation because they only pitch 60, 70 innings in a full year. That's why they seem to rotate good and bad seasons at a higher rate than starting pitchers. It's just small sample size induced variation, not much more than that. (Injuries can also be a factor though since relievers can be max effort more often, which would obviously lead to more arm explosions). That scouting/coaching explanation is kind of hilarious. It's just an example of people not understanding the instability of the statistic that they're looking at, and flailing away trying to explain the instability with a largely nonsense piece of reasoning.

Uh, no. Age and park factors will affect DIPS. I'm not even 100% sure what you're trying to say with this and the Saberhagen thing. Not sure if you have a sound enough understanding of what DIPS even is.

No, that's not true at all. You actually have this kind of backwards. In a single season, ERA and WHIP will contain a lot of noise. Batted ball luck, HR rate luck, LOB% luck (for ERA). It's just a small sample size problem, basically. And as the sample size gets larger (I'm talking multiple connected seasons spanning thousands of innings), then ERA starts to capture subtle nuances that the blunt force of DIPS misses. Things like pitcher's defense, plus pick off moves, and mystical forces like "hittability". This is why Mark Buehrle's career ERA is more meaningful than his career FIP. Or why Joe Blanton's career ERA is more meaningful than his career FIP (in a different direction than Buehrle).

They are relatively bad stats, because much better approximations of true talent based past performance are readily available. If you just want to use ERA as a measurement of past earned runs given up, then it's a perfect stat. If you just want to use WHIP as a measurement of the past rate of given up Walks+Hits, then it's a perfect stat. It just depends on the context in which they are used. The problem is that people use past ERA and WHIP as a measurement of talent. They aren't very good at that, compared to other available metrics. DIPS are better at predicting future ERA than ERA itself. One of the major "flaws" in ERA is that it reflects batted ball luck. WHIP is subject to this same flaw. People try to use WHIP as some sort of talent indicator that is better than ERA... but it's only marginally better. It's rather dubious to use WHIP the way that some people do. It's not much better than simply looking at ERA - some people think it is though. It's not really a separate dip stick. It enters some of the same sludge as ERA.

WHIP is not a good stat. It's marginally better than ERA, and a dubious stat at best.

The most advanced stat that I've ever heard him quote is WHIP, lol.

Embed that s***! http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/mo_broken_FGmark.gif

Yeah, that's right. He has Meadows - Frazier going 12-13

And here's KLaw's first mock, just dropped today. It's.... interesting. Insider so I'll copy paste. Not gonna format it or anything to just bear with the ugly. 1Jonathan GrayPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 239School: Oklahoma Analysis: The industry thinking is that the Astros will try to cut a deal with Gray for less than it would cost to sign Mark Appel, then applying the savings to later picks where they might sign players to bonuses that exceed MLB's recommendations. There is one hot rumor this week that has the Astros on UNC third baseman Colin Moran, one of the top statistical performers in this draft and someone likely to rate at or near the top of Houston's internal analytics. Besides Gray and Moran, Mark Appel and perhaps Kris Bryant all seem to be in consideration, and maybe (but probably not) Clint Frazier. If last year is any guide, the Astros won't make a final decision until a few hours or even minutes before the pick. 2Mark AppelPOS: RHPHT: 6-5WT: 215School: Stanford Analysis: This is Appel or Gray, assuming one of them goes first, with Appel the preference. The Cubs are in the catbird seat in this draft -- they don't have to pay the premium that comes with picking first overall but are guaranteed to get one of the two huge arms in the class. 3Kris BryantPOS: 3B/OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 215School: San Diego Analysis: I've only heard them on bats so far, including Bryant, Dominic Smith and Austin Meadows. However, if Gray ends up here, I think the Rockies would take him. 4Kohl StewartPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: St. Pius X (Houston) Analysis: They've been very heavy on Stewart over his last few outings, and he's an ideal fit for a system that needs high-upside pitchers, with Stewart offering the athleticism the Twins have always favored in position players. There is a persistent rumor that the Twins will cut a deal with prep catcher Reese McGuire for less than MLB's recommended bonus, which would allow them to apply those savings later in the draft. But Stewart is clearly the better choice and appears to be higher on their internal board, below only the three players who I project to go in the top three. 5Colin MoranPOS: 3BHT: 6-3WT: 215School: North Carolina Analysis: I've heard that Moran will fall no farther than here at No. 5, and Cleveland will take Bryant if Moran is gone. Clint Frazier could be a backup plan at this spot, the highest I've heard him going other than Houston. 6Braden ShipleyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 190School: Nevada Analysis: Shipley and New Mexico's DJ Peterson are the two most frequent names I'm hearing about with this pick. Peterson would be the first college position player that the Marlins drafted with their first selection since Mark Kotsay in 1996. Ownership seems to be mandating a college player for the first pick. 7Ryne StanekPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 190School: Arkansas Analysis: Stanek came into the year as a top-five pick, struggled with command, but has been showing major velocity of late and holding it deep into games. There's a thought that the Sox are lurking on him and Sean Manaea, since Moran and Bryant will likely be gone and Clint Frazier might be too risky for them at No. 7. If they drafted a little lower, they might consider Alex Gonzalez as well. 8Sean ManaeaPOS: LHPHT: 6-5WT: 235School: Indiana State Analysis: I'm hearing that the Royals are focused on college arms, including Manaea and Shipley, but oddly enough not Stanek, whom they've barely scouted. Their main non-pitching target seems to be Austin Meadows. 9DJ PetersonPOS: 3B/1BB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 205School: New Mexico Analysis: They are also linked to Reese McGuire (whom GM Neal Huntington has seen more than once), Austin Meadows and Trey Ball. 10Reese McGuirePOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Kentwood HS (Kent, Wash.) Analysis: I've heard the Blue Jays could take Ball or Meadows with this pick. I would expect them to be opportunistic on any player who was supposed to go higher than this and falls, which could mean Frazier. 11Dominic SmithPOS: 1BB/T: L/LHT: 6-0WT: 195School: Serra HS (Gardena, Calif.) Analysis: This pick could also be Peterson, Aaron Judge or longshots Hunter Renfroe or Austin Wilson. Also, the Mets were among the teams scouting Frazier on Monday. 12Austin MeadowsPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Grayson (Ga.) HS Analysis: The Mariners originally thought they'd have a shot at Moran, but that seems impossible. Peterson and Stanek are both considerations if they're available here, with Reese McGuire getting play as the local kid. I think Seattle would be over the moon getting Meadows here with the No. 12 pick. No matter how I map the scenarios, either Meadows or Peterson ends up here. 13Clint FrazierPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 190School: Loganville (Ga.) HS Analysis: Frazier and Meadows falling this far seems odd to me, but there's a flight to safety in the top 10, with teams expressing stronger preferences for college players over prep kids. That could certainly change in the next three weeks after scouting departments get into their draft rooms. The Padres would also consider Hunter Renfroe with this pick or they might cut a deal with a prep arm, an approach that worked very well for them last year when they nabbed prep lefty Max Fried at No. 7 overall. 14Trey BallPOS: LHP/OFHT: 6-6WT: 180School: New Castle (Ind.) HS Analysis: I've also heard that the Pirates could take Aaron Judge or Hunter Renfroe with this pick. I actually prefer Ball to Peterson -- whom I have them taking at No. 9 -- but Peterson won't get past pick No. 12. 15Hunter RenfroePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 216School: Mississippi State Analysis: Alex Gonzalez is one of the other names here, although it sounds like the Diamondbacks covet Renfroe. 16J.P. CrawfordPOS: SSB/T: L/RHT: 6-2WT: 175School: Lakewood (Calif.) HS Analysis: They're getting linked to every toolsy prep player who might be available with this pick, including Travis Demerritte, Devin Williams and junior college shortstop Tim Anderson. 17Chris AndersonPOS: RHPHT: 6-4WT: 225School: Jacksonville Analysis: I've also heard the White Sox linked to Gonzaga lefty Marco Gonzales, although this seems a little early for him. 18Matt KrookPOS: LHPHT: 6-2WT: 190School: St. Ignatius Prep (Hillsborough, Calif.) Analysis: I know you're shocked, but the Dodgers are linked to a lot of prep arms, including Krook, Hunter Harvey and Devin Williams. 19Alex GonzalezPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 200School: Oral Roberts Analysis: They're also one of several teams seen as strong candidates for prep shortstop Travis Demerritte, who is likely to go off the board before their next pick. Local kid Devin Williams will be a sentimental favorite among fans, I'm sure. 20Kyle SerranoPOS: RHPHT: 6-0WT: 185School: Farragut (Tenn.) HS Analysis: One very odd name I heard here is Florida right-hander Jonathan Crawford, who doesn't seem to be getting much play in the first round as there's a growing consensus that he's a reliever in the long run. I've also heard Stanek here if he slides. 21Nick CiuffoPOS: CB/T: L/RHT: 6-1WT: 200School: Lexington (S.C.) HS Analysis: I've heard Tampa Bay is focused on catching, but only Ciuffo would fit the bill in this spot. Devin Williams is also high on the Rays' list. 22Devin WilliamsPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 172School: Hazelwood West HS (Hazelwood, Mo.) Analysis: I doubt that Williams, who could go anywhere in the teens, gets past this four-team gauntlet of clubs starting with Baltimore's No. 22 pick. I've also heard that the Orioles have a bit of interest in New Jersey prep lefty Rob Kaminsky and Fresno State outfielder Aaron Judge. 23Travis DemerittePOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 195School: Winder-Barrow HS (Winder, Ga.) Analysis: I've heard Demerritte could go as high as No. 16, but I think he goes in the 20s, where Texas is widely seen to be all over him. 24Hunter HarveyPOS: RHPHT: 6-3WT: 175School: Bandys HS (Catawba, N.C.) Analysis: I've heard that the A's are interested in a lot of prep arms, including Harvey and prep southpaw Rob Kaminsky. 25Eric JagieloPOS: RHPB/T: L/RHT: 6-3WT: 215School: Notre Dame Analysis: San Franciso's front office is notoriously tight-lipped, and rumors here are all over the board, including pretty much everyone linked to Oakland. 26Austin WilsonPOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-5WT: 245School: Stanford Analysis: The Yankees have scouted Wilson heavily since he came back from a stress reaction above his elbow. They've been linked to a ton of prep players but have the luxury of playing the board a little with two more picks at Nos. 32 and 33. 27Billy McKinneyPOS: OFB/T: L/LHT: 6-2WT: 195School: Plano (Texas) West HS Analysis: McKinney could be this year's version of Jesse Winker, another bat-only prep outfielder who falls to the Reds and hits the ground running in pro ball. 28Aaron JudgePOS: OFB/T: R/RHT: 6-7WT: 255School: Fresno State Analysis: I've heard that Judge could be picked anywhere in the first round, garnering interest from teams in the 7-to-15 range to those picking in the 20s (figuring he doesn't drop that far). 29Marco GonzalesPOS: LHPHT: 6-1WT: 185School: Gonzaga Analysis: It's hard to imagine the Rays passing on a consistent performer like Gonzales. Plus, it's known that they like his feel for pitching. 30Rob KaminskyPOS: LHPHT: 6-0WT: 190School: St. Joseph HS (Montvale, N.J.) 31Tim AndersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-1WT: 180School: East Central CC 32Jon DenneyPOS: CB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 205School: Yukon (Okla.) HS Analysis: Denney was a possible top-10 pick in early February but had a rough spring on offense and defense. That may make him a huge bargain at this point in the draft, with the Yankees also linked to him often of late. 33Dustin PetersonPOS: SSB/T: R/RHT: 6-2WT: 180School: Gilbert (Ariz.) HS

I'd definitely prefer JP Crawford or Dominic Smith. Being said, I've never seen any of them play and I'm basically just a keyboard warrior who likes to think that he knows more than he actually does.

Agreed entirely, especially so with the bolded paragraph.

you suck//http:

1) Houston Astros: Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University: Just about everyone believes that the first two picks in the draft will be college pitchers Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray. Gray seems to have little more momentum at this point, but I'll buck consensus slightly and slot Appel here on the theory that he makes a late charge and/or Gray slumps just a hair. 2) Chicago Cubs: Jonathan Gray, RHP, University of Oklahoma: Consensus seems to be that the Cubs will pick whichever college pitcher the Astros don't pick. That seems eminently reasonable given that the Cubs need high-ceiling pitching very badly. Gray and Appel are head-and-shoulders above every other pitcher in the draft. 3) Colorado Rockies: Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego: Todd Helton is eight million years old, the Rockies have no long-term successor in place at first base, and Bryant is the best hitter in the draft. Seems like a perfect match to me. 4) Minnesota Twins: Kohl Stewart, RHP, Texas HS: Ok, now it gets complicated. The Twins have a robust group of hitters in the farm system but need more pitching. They have a well-known liking for college arms, but there is a big quality drop-off from Appel and Gray. I don't see guys like Ryne Stanek or Sean Manaea slotting here given their erratic springs. Some people like Braden Shipley here, but that still feels a bit too early for me. On talent I think the best available picks are high school outfielders Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows, and prep arm Kohl Stewart. The Twins could also use a catching prospect to eventually relieve Joe Mauer, but is this too high to pop someone like Reese McGuire? The Twins are already loaded with outfield prospects, so I think either Stewart or McGuire fits best. 5) Cleveland Indians: Austin Meadows, OF, Georgia HS: The Indians are reportedly looking for pitching, but they need outfield and power prospects too and for me Frazier and Meadows are the most logical choices talent-wise. If Manaea and/or Stanek finish well they could also slot quite logically here. Meadows has across-the-board skills and tools and is a more balanced prospect than Frazier. 6) Miami Marlins: Hunter Renfroe, OF, Mississippi State University: This is the first pick that might seem like a real stretch to some, but Renfroe has had an outstanding spring, has strong tools, has been moving up draft boards, and seems like he can get into the top ten for a team looking to save some money. The Marlins haven't drafted college hitters this early recently, but Renfroe is not your ordinary college hitter. 7) Boston Red Sox: Colin Moran, 3B, University of North Carolina: Under this scenario it would be either Moran or Frazier and you could make a case either way. Moran is safer, his upside as a pure hitter is as high as Frazier's upside as a power masher, and he won't need as long in the minors. 8) Kansas City Royals: Braden Shipley, RHP, University of Nevada: A college arm makes the most logical sense and Shipley is the best still on the board at this point. Ryne Stanek has local ties since he went to high school in Kansas City and he would be a logical choice as well if he finishes strong down the stretch for the Razorbacks. If they want a hitter, Frazier would be the best one still here. 9) Pittsburgh Pirates: Clint Frazier, WOW LOW OF, Georgia HS: I can't let Frazier's booming bat drop any further than this. The Pirates haven't selected a high school bat in the first round for a long time, although Josh Bell was a first-round talent who fell in 2011. A future outfield of Frazier, Bell, and Gregory Polanco would be quite exciting. 10) Toronto Blue Jays: Trey Ball, PUKE OF, Indiana HS: A very logical choice given Bell's combination of upside, athleticism, and youth plus Toronto's usual orientation towards those qualities in the draft. 11) New York Mets: Dominic Smith, 1B, California HS: Rumors about what the Mets are interested in are contradictory, and really at this point what happens will depend on what the teams ahead of them do. The system needs impact bats and the front office has shown a liking for high schoolers in the last couple of drafts. Smith is an excellent hitter and could fit here on both talent and organizational need terms. I also believe that first base prospects may be a new market inefficiency that some clubs may try to exploit. 12) Seattle Mariners: Reese McGuire, C, Washington HS: I know the Mariners already have Mike Zunino, but that gives them the flexibility to let McGuire develop without the temptation to rush him. You can never have too many catchers since even top prospects at that position are volatile and often don't develop as expected. A high school pitcher or an outfielder could also slot here, but Phil Bickford, Ian Clarkin or maybe even Austin Wilson as plausible choices. 13) San Diego Padres: Ian Clarkin, LHP, California HS: The Padres aren't afraid of high school pitching and at this spot there are several interesting arms to choose from. Either Bickford or Clarkin fits talent-wise, with Robert Kaminsky another darkhorse possibility. Sean Manaea might fit if he finishes strong. 14) Pittsburgh Pirates: Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University: He didn't live up to expectations this spring, but Manaea still has first-round talent and could be a nice steal here. 15) Arizona Diamondbacks: D.J. Peterson, 3B-OF, University of New Mexico: His position may be in question, but nobody seems to doubt his bat. If they are more interested in athleticism, J.P. Crawford could fit. 16) Philadelphia Phillies: J.P. Crawford, SS, California HS: Tools, youth, and upside are the standard Phillies emphasis and J.P. Crawford has all of that. Bickford would also fit their patterns favoring high school pitching ........ 19) St. Louis Cardinals: Jonathon Crawford, RHP, University of Florida 20) Detroit Tigers: Austin Wilson, OF, Stanford 23) Texas Rangers: Jon Denney, C, Oklahoma HS 27) Cincinnati Reds: Ryne Stanek, RHP, University of Arkansas 32) New York Yankees (for Nick Swisher): Chris Anderson, RHP, Jacksonville University