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Laika

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Everything posted by Laika

  1. Andrus is a really solid player, but it's hard to think of him as much of an asset on that contract. Very similar to Jose Reyes right now. Makes wins happen on the field, but financially you might as well have done nothing. Very likely that at some point that contract becomes a chunk of change that you wish you could re-appropriate (as the Rangers might be realizing at this moment). Here's a trade that would absolutely never have a chance of happening, but makes sense in a nerdy trade vacuum: Andrus for Melky + Buehrle + cash to balance the short term (2013) books. All of these players are functional non assets at this point, at least IMO (and being a bit loose with that "non-asset" label). - Buehrle projects for 0.6 fWAR (ZIPS) the rest of the way, which is an improvement on Martin Perez, their current #5 SP, who projects for a 5.05 FIP and replacement level pitching. - Melky projects for 0.5 fWAR the rest of the way, and provides corner outfield depth that Texas craves, since they currently have David Murphy in left and the soon to be suspended Nelson Cruz in right. - Texas replacing Andrus with Profar is a very tiny short term projected wins loss (-0.2), but it carries massive long term potential gains. They stand to gain very much by running with Profar as a full time player, and from a developmental perspective he needs the reps. So Texas basically just moves money around, in the short term, to get a better distribution of investment with a mind on both a) short term winning, and long term franchise player development. In the long term, Texas frees up quite a bit of cash. I think the gains to Toronto are obvious. They don't shed much (if any) payroll, but Andrus is younger and helps fill the middle infield blackhole currently glaring it's ugly face at 2B (where Jose Reyes would move). In LF, going from Melky to a Davis/Gose/Rasmus platoon thing probably sees the Jays actually gain a bit of wins. In the rotation, the Jays lose (sadly) their best current SP, but there might be some depth coming through there in the short term in Nolin, Hutch, Drabek, Stroman, Happ, etc.
  2. Not saying you definitely won't find a match, but just to comment, the OF market seems to be over-saturated right now, and the SP market is pretty thin.
  3. NO TEAM W L 1 Houston Astros, 35- 69 2 Miami Marlins, 40- 64 3 Chicago White Sox, 40- 63 4 Milwaukee Brewers, 44- 61 5 Minnesota Twins, 45- 57 6 San Francisco Giants, 46- 58 7 New York Mets, 47- 56 8 Toronto Blue Jays, 48- 57 9 San Diego Padres, 49- 58 10 Chicago Cubs, 48- 56 11 Los Angeles Angels, 48- 56 12 Philadelphia Phillies, 49- 56 13 Seattle Mariners, 50- 55
  4. The D-Backs probably should trade Ian Kennedy. Kennedy (2 more arb years; 0.7 WAR in 117 IP; flyball pitcher in Arizona!) Miley (4 more cheap years; 0.9 WAR in 128 IP) Corbin (tons of cheap control and apparently really good) Delgado (tons of cheap control and surprisingly effective through 50 innings) Skaggs (was top prospect before year, tons of control left) Cahill (20M through 2015; 0.6 WAR in 96 IP) McCarthy (10M in 2014; 1 WAR in 66 IP) Hudson (still exists; 26 years old) Bradley (step back in AA but still probably really awesome) Chafin (young depth) Holmberg (young depth) It makes a lot of sense for them to trade two of Cahill, Kennedy, and McCarthy right now. They could save 16-20M in yearly payroll without missing a beat. Hard to trade Cahill and McCarthy when they're hurt though. That SP chart is also really deep, but not without it's doubts.
  5. AVG/OBP are basically the same. The value of Andrus' extra stolen bases very probably nukes whatever advantage Asdrubal would get from better SLG. They are basically the same this year though for all intensive porpoises.
  6. Yes, 100%. Bark Muehrle is a non-asset. Kind of sad that the Jays best current SP is literally a non-asset. Also kind of sad that AA is so inept that he needs to spend 18M per season just to see "league average SP" type returns.
  7. shortstahhhhhhhhhhp Same reason Tulo almost always goes in the top 10 picks, despite the fact that he never lives up to it (all things considered), and he comes with significant, significant downside (season missed, 1000 O-Rank type production). Just looking at our PL draft this year, Andrus 95th Assdribble 97th (has been a bit worse) Rutledge in the 6th (terrible) Espinosa in the 7th Jeter in the 8th Alcides in the 9th Aybar and Hardy in the 10th Andrus just always exists at the edge of the cliff for optically viable SS options. It's take him in the 5th round and have a relatively safe option based on the SB, or you can just punt the position / play the lottery.
  8. I just don't really get the appeal. Look at Pujols in LA right now. Who would want that type of albatross contract situation? It's the post PED era (well, maybe). Players get old, injuries take their toll like they naturally should. If a team signs Robinson Cano for 10 years and gets 4 really good years out of him, I'd consider them lucky.
  9. Well, that's just how message boards work sometimes. For example: I know you're an idiot, but I read and responded to your post anyway.
  10. Why the fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu are you rostering Jeff Keppinger ?
  11. A) Those are probably across vastly different sample sizes An initial study like that is great for "binning" catchers, i.e. throwing into categories like "great", "average", or "god-awful". But it's not anything close to quantifiable gospel. They both blow chunks, that's as much as we can say.
  12. Basically, you're dumb. That's what the better available arms/bats always cost. The buyers almost always "lose" on paper, when it comes to the top names out there. The added Wild Card slots have (probably) also made the midseason market a bit more seller-friendly. 2010: - A few days before the actual deadline, the Phillies made a huge splash and acquired Roy Oswalt and $11MM from the Astros in exchange for J.A. Happ and prospects Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villar. - The White Sox fortified their rotation by acquiring Edwin Jackson from Arizona in exchange for Daniel Hudson and David Holmberg [Jackson had a 5.16 ERA at the time of this trade]. - Even with Jon Rauch doing a fine job in the interim, the Twins solidified the ninth inning by acquiring closer Matt Capps from the Nationals. They gave up Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa. 2011: - Hunter Pence and cash (Astros) for Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later (Phillies) - Mike Adams (Padres) for Joseph Wieland and Robert Erlin (Rangers) - Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner and Matt McBride (Indians) - Koji Uehara (Orioles) for Tommy Hunter and Chris Davis (Rangers) - Carlos Beltran (Mets) for Zack Wheeler (Giants)
  13. Porcello straight up for Kendrick is very fair. Even then, that's one for the offseason. Omar is hitting like .310 right now.
  14. Doumit is an infinitely better hitter than JPA, and only possibly a worse defender behind the plate.... but even then we would be talking worst in baseball vs. second worst in baseball. Last 3 years: link The "Fans Scouting Report" gives them both overall grades of 31.
  15. This is the team that gave old man Pujols and crackbaby Hamilton like, $350 million though. Not the smartest group of suits.
  16. This thread is so f***ing stupid.
  17. http://s2.postimg.org/xxm19ye6x/colby.png
  18. I don't think the first two help me very much. Shoot me a quick price check on Price though, and I'll see if it's a cost that I'm willing to pay. (I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for or what your needs are. Everything is potentially available on my end, from picks to big league guys).
  19. Could really use one more horse. Anybody thinking of selling a good SP?
  20. I think you could make the argument that Toronto only needs to add 1 SP this winter, and there's no point in doing so unless that guy is a sure SP3 or better. Dickey Morrow Buehrle Happ Hutch Stroman Nolin Rogers? Well, I dunno. Maybe that argument would be pretty bad. The depth will be there but the top end production will be a massive question mark. If you look at mean outcomes down the list, you probably have: SP3, hurt/SP4, SP4, SP5, SP5, SP5/RP, SP5, SP5/RP.
  21. AA was at his best when he was trying to be efficient. That's when we saw stuff like the Morrow, Escobar, Rasmus, and Lawrie acquisitions. Even smaller stuff like getting Davis, Villa, and Delabar. Put him at the max of his budget and he's probably a better GM. Give him money and he's shown that he has absolutely no idea how to effectively use it.
  22. The scenario: You have fourteen million dollars. Improve the team. The solution: I don't know what it is, but I know that it's definitely NOT "give it all to Josh Johnson".
  23. How about two guys for 7 million? Preferably ones that aren't made of glass. I'm not going to make hypothetical signings. There is a list of all free agents on mlbtr. There are plenty of names.
  24. I'm not really sure if bringing back Josh Johnson would be the best appropriation of 14 million dollars. Actually, I am sure. It's not a good use. If he's going to accept the QO, then don't offer it. And yeah, I'm well aware of what his xFIP is.
  25. You sir, are a mess.
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