Laika
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Everything posted by Laika
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It's just robo-spittle. Nothing. We're talking about a binary result and which team will beat the other. The higher variance in R/G and RA/G is what causes the expected win% of the better team to be closer to 50%, compared to a bigger sample of games.
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It's mostly a cliche. Different because: - off days - elite pitching more important - more attention - losers of short series go home - better team is far less likely to win than in a season long divisional race Not different because: - meaningful sample size considerations shrink into nothing and good managers can infallibly "trust their gut" and "ride the hot hand" to victory.
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These things work in degrees of probability and projectable certainty based on the size of the sample, and the magnitude of the sample. Sanchez' sample of recently being effective should essentially be meaningless when compared to his career sample of sucking against lefties. Don't tell me what I would and would not Smoak.
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Nice to know in advance, with 100% projectable certainty, that said unicorn will show up today.
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bad scientist
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Sanchez career splits: RHB: .189 wOBA, 2.46 FIP LHB: .351 wOBA, 6.15 FIP fire Gibbons into the sun if Sanchez faces a lefty in a close game. Against Texas' lineup, that means ~2 batters maximum.
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The point is that it shouldn't be. They tried to run Sanchez out there for multiple innings in the regular season and IIRC the results were not good, every time. IDGAF if he's faced 4 lefties and K'd all of them this series. Should be essentially a ROOGY or DP tool only in any one run game.
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So the entire concept of a meaningful sample size gets thrown out the window because it's the playoffs? Osuna has been nails all year and Sanchez isn't a good matchup against lefties.
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Hopefully Stroman is awesome, Hamels gives up a shot or two, and the whole Price thing is irrelevant and then he can start game 1 of the CS!
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There are like 5 guys I would have chosen over Tepera. Frigging Delabar actually has a good K rate against lefties in his career. Plopping Chad Girodo or Colt Hynes on the roster could have had more utility than Tepera. He's useless against Texas!
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+1 I would fire Gibbons into the sun if he refused to use Price entirely.
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Also Jose likes to stretch constantly. 98% of his day is spent doing complicated stretches. He'd go all stiff and cramp up if he had to stand there like a statue and hold runners on, etc.
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The negative number for defense is from the positional adjustment. Fangraphs changed their dashboard last year and it's confusing. It used to show UZR, which is runs saved/lost relative to league average at the player's position, but now it rolls in the positional adjustment and displays total defensive runs. Right fielders get a negative adjustment. A league average RF would display a -7.5 in defense on the Fangraphs dashboard. A right fielder displaying a slight positive in the Fangraphs dashboard defensive value would hypothetically be a viable CF. I wish they'd go back to just showing UZR on the dashboard because I think it's the more important information.
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True, but when that position switch happened Special Ed was basically a role player. A below average regular with some big muscles.
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I dunno, I think Edwin is getting more comfortable at 1B. He's certainly looked competent there this season.
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I agree. Give him ~30 half days off next year while utilizing the 4th man in the Pompey/Saunders/Pillar/Bautista OF. Against RHP obviously, since you want Colabello in there against every LHP and the opposite might be true for Saunders.
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Bautista was an above average RF in each of the previous 3 seasons, and about 70% of his negative runs in the OF this year can be blamed on his bum shoulder. Talk of moving him to 1B is very premature
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Oh he definitely will stay in the OF. It's a point of pride for Bautista, I bet. He takes great care of his body and he probably has every intent to stay in RF until he retires. It's also the norm in baseball. Veteran outfielders like Marlon Byrd, Torri Hunter, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Beltran stay in the OF, even if their defense slips. Elite veteran players just don't typically switch positions, unless it's from C-->1B or maybe 3B-->1B mid career if they outgrow the hot corner. Taking a player and forcing a late career position switch is a good way to f*** him up (Hanley) or neuter all of his value (Mauer). The only positive precedent that I can think of from recent memory is Cruz shifting to partial DH duties this year with good results.
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Martinez ended the season going on the 60 day DL with a scary shoulder injury. Try someone else! I agree that trading EE for a young, controllable, good SP could make real sense. I disagree that he won't age well. He seems to have perfect "old man" skills, like Ortiz, VMart, etc.
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Yeah I think if you get them negotiating together, sort of, then the Jays could get a great deal. They are buddies and they probably want to stay together in Toronto, where everything came together for them and the team is finally good.
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oh f***
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The offseason plan should basically be to buy low on a couple of SP like Shark / Ian Kennedy, and then call it a day. Maybe try to do the much talked about Revere for a SP deal, but it might not be out there. Do these little things and then hope the team competes again in 2016 while the farm matures. They could also justify just trading Revere for whatever (cheap/good swing man like Zach McAllister?) mostly to save some payroll. I believe in Pompey and Saunders. Good Canadian boys. I guess they could explore trading Goins or Travis if the value is there... but I still don't believe in Goins.
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I wonder if they would just give Niese away to anyone who will take on the contract. A groundball guy like him could benefit from the slow turf + Blue Jays very good IF defense.
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Puig! He's made for LA
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Chris Carruthers - any insight on the Price decision? Was it all Gibbons? Were people mad?
