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Frag

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Everything posted by Frag

  1. Frag
    Lol
  2. Frag
    Cola is still a decent hitter even after regressing his wOBA (it would be somewhere around 0.330 wOBA). Still, even if he somehow doesn't regress, the comparison is silly.
  3. Frag
    I think so, too. Somewhere around 1.5 WAR seems reasonable. Steamer is taking into account his -0.1 year.
  4. Frag
    Steamer projections for our rotation next year: Stroman: 3.4 Happ: 1.9 Dickey: 1.1 (Mind you, knuckleballer may have better value than FIP shows) Chavez: 2.0 Estrada: 0.6 Plus, Hutch: 1.4 There may not be another terrific SP after Stroman, but at least there's depth.
  5. Frag
    From a value standpoint, the signing makes sense even if Happ performs like an average pitcher. If Happ's mechanical changes translate to a better performance long-term, even better.
  6. Frag
    Not pizza, but I went to a crepe place in Kingston that was on "You Gotta Eat Here". It was delicious!
  7. Frag
    I don't care for the dip, which is probably why Pizza Pizza never appeals to me.
  8. Frag
    He obviously hasn't seen St. Louis-style pizza:
  9. Frag
    Their content is usually fine. I get people's frustration with the site's swearing ban, but the people there are good.
  10. Frag
    MjwW normally does a good job, but I could see he came to his conclusions before he conducted his analysis. Based off the information he provided, Chavez's K% and BB% improved on the road (and in more hitter-friendly parks), while his HR% increased.
  11. Frag
    Especially in terms of pitching. The lack of depth among SP/RP was always frustrating.
  12. Frag
    Chavez had an odd contact-managing profile during his days in Oakland.
  13. Frag
    Author: Steve Simmons
  14. Frag
    That's the problem with information asymmetry. You could make multiple arguments about why teams make their decisions, but you cannot pinpoint the exact reasons.
  15. Frag
    Wasn't he put in the pen so that the team would limit his IP, especially after just recovering from TJS?
  16. Frag
    I hope you only mean this season regarding Osuna.
  17. Frag
    That's what I meant. I used FIP-based metrics, which is affected by catching skill.
  18. Frag
    That's what I'm getting at.
  19. Frag
    In terms of pitch framing? Unless it is accounted for, it can.
  20. Frag
    1. It didn't seem to affect his command, but I don't know. 3. That's actually an interesting point I hadn't considered. The shift from Vogt to Martin is significant.
  21. Frag
    I think my initial post had people coming into my "numbers" post thinking I'm trying every way to prove that the deal is bad for the Jays, or that Chavez is terrible (I said mediocre, which is about right for his skill-set considering his FIP- for the last two years was about average). Now that my nerves have subsided from the initial shock of the trade, I'll try to evaluate this trade more rationally. The reason why I wanted to look at the numbers was to see whether the trade really was as unfavorable for the Jays as I was making it out to be (initial reactions can be wrong). I'll admit, in terms of short-term value, there is a benefit for the Jays (about $3.5 M surplus). The only other approach to this will be to assess them again after the 2016 season is over (and beyond).
  22. Frag
    Right. Like I said previously, Liam Hendriks could fall on his face from 2016 onwards, and (assuming Chavez performs somewhere around 2.0 WAR as Steamer projected) the trade is good from all angles for the Jays. Or, both fall on their face and it's a nothing-nothing trade.
  23. Frag
    1. I assumed decline on Hendriks' performance based off his 0.9 WAR projection (by Steamer). As I said, for year 1, it benefits the Jays. If the intent of this trade was for short-term SP depth, then I see why they made this trade. 2. I accounted for this, also. 3. Fair enough. 4. Fair enough. 5. His fastball velocity declined as the season went along. Combine that with his poorer 2nd half, and there are concerns. I did not read it. Edit: Okay, I read your earlier posts. I see where you're getting at.
  24. Frag
    Hi Dogg
  25. Frag
    Of course, if Liam Hendriks falls on his face from 2016 onwards, then the Jays look good. Happy, NJH?
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