This is it exactly. Martin, Tulo, Encarnacion, and Bautista put up 14.8 fWAR last year. They were projected to put up 14 this year. We're 25% of the way through the season and they're at 0.6 fWAR. That's about three wins less than their projected pace. That's the difference between 19-21 and 22-18.
We can talk all we want about the bullpen and Gibbons and Thole, but the reality is that if the high-priced star players continue to hover around their current paces, there is nothing that AA or Shartkins could have done to bring this team to the playoffs. It's on the stars to start playing.