BTS
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Everything posted by BTS
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Giving Price to Boston seems to be working out alright.
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I'd be shocked if most GMs weren't looking at some proprietary version of WAR. Dave Stewart obviously wasn't, but things have really changed in the last 5-10 years.
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I wouldn't assume that either. I'm not sure that there's any one metric that does a good job capturing the value of a very good reliever. fWAR isn't sufficient for the reasons I've stated. RA-9 WAR has its own issues, and WPA relies too much on context. I'm comfortable saying that I think Morrow was less valuable than his fWAR indicates, and that I think he would have been a very good reliever, and that I think very good relievers are undervalued by fWAR. I'm not saying it was a mistake that he was used as a starter, but I think it's possible that he would have added more value in relief (probable was too strong, and relies too much on subjective preferences in evaluating how valuable a pitcher is). You mentioned Cecil earlier. Two people could go on for pages debating whether or not he would have been more valuable as a starter, and both could make valid and convincing arguments. In the end the decision was fine, and it might at the same time have cut into his value to the team.
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Not necessarily, but I do think they're undervalued by fWAR for two reasons: they tend to have ERAs lower than their FIPs, and they pitch a lot of high leverage innings.
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I didn't say 2-WAR reliever.
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You'd have to think that he would have been less prone to injury in the pen to buy the argument. I'm pretty comfortable saying Morrow would have been worth close to two wins a year in high leverage relief.
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Looking at it now, he averaged about 2 fWAR and 1 RA/9 WAR/year here. Depending on how much of that you attribute to bad luck he was either a solid starter or a back end guy. Any reason to think a starter with contact management problems would manage that better in relief?
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You know what's crazy? Those Morrow debates started 7 years ago. And yeah, in hindsight Toronto probably would have extracted more value from Morrow as a high leverage reliever.
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I think so. They're not going to be able to break the bank for RF, LF, 1B, and DH, so platooning Upton with someone like Joyce, Jay, or Aoki and squeezing what you can out of them for a total of <5M seems like an easy way to fill an OF spot.
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Holliday at 1/12 + a pick seems like it would be more attractive to this FO than Bautista and no pick. Less money per year, no multi-year commitment, and fits with the organizational direction of remaining competitive in the present while continuing to accumulate assets for the future.
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God do I ever want them to sign Holliday.
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His walk rate dropped, but his K-rate didn't increase. No decline at all in PD stats (O-swing, Z-contact, O-contact, swinging strike % were all fine). 4th-highest hard-hit % of career. FB% above his career average. 5th highest average exit velocity in baseball. His BABIP was 80 points below his career average, and 45 points below his previous career low, and everything in his contact profile suggests that this was just bad luck. And he still had a 109 wRC+. Hitting in a hitters park, and staying healthy by playing DH, it's not unreasonable at all to think he could pop 25+ homers and put up a 125 wRC+.
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Both of those (Bautista accepts QO, or Bautista signs straight 3-year deal) are just far preferable to the team than Bautista signing a 3-year deal with an opt-out after year one. I have no problem with the team walking away from the latter deal to help cement the idea that the Blue Jays don't mess around with player options, so if you're talking to them don't even bother.
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It would be tough to study, because even if someone found that they suffer arm/shoulder injuries at about the same rate, you have to consider that teams have been moving bad mechanics pitchers with perceived high injury risk to the pen, while letting the big bodied guys with clean mechanics stay in the rotation. If teams are actually good at assessing injury risk, and I have no idea if they are, equal rates of injury between the pen and rotation might actually be evidence that the bullpen helps pitchers stay healthy.
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That would be awesome. On the surface, the team seems to have a lot to offer him: - he knows Tulo pretty well - DH should extend his career - we have no 1B, so he could easily start there a couple times a week if he wants - good lineup featuring JD - consecutive ALCS appearances
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It turns out that the Cubs should have just walked away. The player option is a no-win deal for the team. If the player's value meets or exceeds his pay, he opts out, and if it doesn't, he stays. Guaranteed contracts already put all the risk on the team, and player opt outs eliminate a large amount of the potential reward.
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Top relievers throw about 1000 pitches, and top starters throw about 3000, give or take 100 or 200. It would take a pretty amazing study to convince me that throwing an extra 2000 pitcher per year does not increase a pitcher's risk of injury.
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It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.
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I love that man so much.
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As in done deal? If so, that's not bad at all.
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I wonder if Matt Holliday would consider signing here to DH and play some 1B. If he rebounds, he could replace a lot of what Edwin or Bautista would bring, but on a 1-year deal.
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Great post. If he was stretched out and stayed healthy, his next two seasons look like maybe 110 then 140 innings? I think that's almost certainly less valuable than 75 high leverage relief innings. Maybe that flips in his last two years of team control, if he stays healthy. Is the minimal reward worth the risk? I don't think so.
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Well, his 74 innings this year were a career high, and he's already had TJS, and his shoulder was acting up at the end of the year. If his arm didn't explode, he'd just be ramping up to 190 innings in his last year of team control.
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If you squint really hard and don't buy his -10 defense, Bruce isn't that gross on something like a 1/8 deal. He's basically Saunders.
