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BTS

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Everything posted by BTS

  1. I think so. They're not going to be able to break the bank for RF, LF, 1B, and DH, so platooning Upton with someone like Joyce, Jay, or Aoki and squeezing what you can out of them for a total of <5M seems like an easy way to fill an OF spot.
  2. Holliday at 1/12 + a pick seems like it would be more attractive to this FO than Bautista and no pick. Less money per year, no multi-year commitment, and fits with the organizational direction of remaining competitive in the present while continuing to accumulate assets for the future.
  3. God do I ever want them to sign Holliday.
  4. His walk rate dropped, but his K-rate didn't increase. No decline at all in PD stats (O-swing, Z-contact, O-contact, swinging strike % were all fine). 4th-highest hard-hit % of career. FB% above his career average. 5th highest average exit velocity in baseball. His BABIP was 80 points below his career average, and 45 points below his previous career low, and everything in his contact profile suggests that this was just bad luck. And he still had a 109 wRC+. Hitting in a hitters park, and staying healthy by playing DH, it's not unreasonable at all to think he could pop 25+ homers and put up a 125 wRC+.
  5. Both of those (Bautista accepts QO, or Bautista signs straight 3-year deal) are just far preferable to the team than Bautista signing a 3-year deal with an opt-out after year one. I have no problem with the team walking away from the latter deal to help cement the idea that the Blue Jays don't mess around with player options, so if you're talking to them don't even bother.
  6. It would be tough to study, because even if someone found that they suffer arm/shoulder injuries at about the same rate, you have to consider that teams have been moving bad mechanics pitchers with perceived high injury risk to the pen, while letting the big bodied guys with clean mechanics stay in the rotation. If teams are actually good at assessing injury risk, and I have no idea if they are, equal rates of injury between the pen and rotation might actually be evidence that the bullpen helps pitchers stay healthy.
  7. That would be awesome. On the surface, the team seems to have a lot to offer him: - he knows Tulo pretty well - DH should extend his career - we have no 1B, so he could easily start there a couple times a week if he wants - good lineup featuring JD - consecutive ALCS appearances
  8. It turns out that the Cubs should have just walked away. The player option is a no-win deal for the team. If the player's value meets or exceeds his pay, he opts out, and if it doesn't, he stays. Guaranteed contracts already put all the risk on the team, and player opt outs eliminate a large amount of the potential reward.
  9. Top relievers throw about 1000 pitches, and top starters throw about 3000, give or take 100 or 200. It would take a pretty amazing study to convince me that throwing an extra 2000 pitcher per year does not increase a pitcher's risk of injury.
  10. It seems pretty intuitive to me that throwing a third of the pitches that a starting pitcher throws is probably good for a pitcher's health.
  11. I love that man so much.
  12. As in done deal? If so, that's not bad at all.
  13. I wonder if Matt Holliday would consider signing here to DH and play some 1B. If he rebounds, he could replace a lot of what Edwin or Bautista would bring, but on a 1-year deal.
  14. Great post. If he was stretched out and stayed healthy, his next two seasons look like maybe 110 then 140 innings? I think that's almost certainly less valuable than 75 high leverage relief innings. Maybe that flips in his last two years of team control, if he stays healthy. Is the minimal reward worth the risk? I don't think so.
  15. Well, his 74 innings this year were a career high, and he's already had TJS, and his shoulder was acting up at the end of the year. If his arm didn't explode, he'd just be ramping up to 190 innings in his last year of team control.
  16. If you squint really hard and don't buy his -10 defense, Bruce isn't that gross on something like a 1/8 deal. He's basically Saunders.
  17. That changes things if he gets locked up to a favourable extension with some team options. I don't attach much value to the possibility unless it happens though. Actually we might see something like that this offseason with Stro or Sanchez. Shatkins locked up Carrasco and Kluber before they had to in Cleveland.
  18. Apparently they won't be shopping in the dollar bin lol
  19. Safer asset with a longer track record? I'd definitely do it if they both had 4 years of control. It being four for Sanchez and three for Calhoun might tip it in favour of Sanchez. I dunno, in terms of long term assets I have a hard time taking the pitcher over the bat.
  20. I think you're underrating Calhoun. Three consecutive seasons between 3.7 and 4 fWAR. 4 runs less valuable than EE over that time.
  21. There are at least 4 things horribly wrong with this post.
  22. If that were the case Tyler Flowers would have gotten like 5/50 last offseason instead of 2/5 and Jason Castro would be on the verge of signing a lucrative long-term deal.
  23. He gets like 2 runs a year from baserunning. He's an above-average hitter who plays a very good RF, mostly because of a strong arm and great reads/instincts. I think Calhoun remains very productive from 29-31.
  24. 4 years of Sanchez seems pretty close to fair for 3 years of Calhoun. I think most people here would do that.
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