Teams run in to both good and bad luck. Last year almost anything that could go wrong for us, did. That doesn't mean the talent on the team would project to last place this year with average luck. Opposite with the O's 2 years ago. They had incredibly good luck, but they weren't a 2nd place talent. This year they finished 4th.
You can't just point to the standings and assume that even with no changes to a roster, they'd look anything close to the same the next year.