I'm not a huge advanced stats guy, and with the little I've followed over the last year or two, I'm behind on everything.
But FIP/xFIP was one of the reasons I suggest we buy low on Arrieta in 2012, even with a 6+ERA. His FIP/xFIP was 4.05/.365. K rates were good, walk rate was good, high BABIP (.320). Arrieta has turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last two years. You actually compare Arrieta's 2012 with Hutch's 2015, they aren't too different.