Daulton Varsho Is Back in the Blue Jays' Lineup

Daulton Varsho made his much-anticipated season debut on Tuesday, coming off of the injured list with a fully rehabbed right shoulder. The return of their everyday centre fielder represents a refreshing jolt to a Blue Jays lineup that has struggled mightily to produce runs since the very start of the season. The offensive woes have been well documented, so I’ll refer you to Leo Morgenstern’s piece from this weekend for a deep dive into what exactly has gone wrong, but just for a quick recap: The Jays would likely benefit from sacrificing some contact for some power. 

Having Varsho’s bat in the lineup every day will be a shift towards this goal in and of itself, simply because his offensive profile comes with high bat speed (78th percentile in 2024) and a lot of swing and miss (whiffed 27% of the time in 2024). Most importantly, Varsho is a threat to leave the yard, making him a much-needed reinforcement for a lineup that ranks 29th in homers, with just 16 through their first 29 games.

It’s asking a lot of Varsho, who has yet to put up a season with a league average OPS as a Blue Jay, to come off the IL, slot into the middle of the order and completely change the fortunes of one of the worst offenses in baseball. Further, if we take a (very quick) glance at his numbers across seven rehab games in the minor leagues, we can see that Varsho was just 3-for-25 without an extra base hit between Dunedin and Buffalo. It would be malpractice to look at minor league rehab numbers from seven games and make any sort of proclamation, but it is important to note that Varsho wasn't exactly setting the world on fire at the plate, and even if he were, he’s not going to single-handedly fix the offense.

Interestingly enough, between the hot starts of George Springer and Myles Straw, Blue Jays centre fielders actually ranked fourth in baseball in wRC+ before Varsho’s season debut on Tuesday. It’s one of the few positions from which the Blue Jays have received above-average offensive production. With Varsho likely to own centre field for the rest of the season, it sparks up an interesting discussion about who gets displaced and what the best way is to deploy this roster.

The corresponding move to Varsho’s addition to the 26-man roster was slightly surprising, as the Jays opted to send infielder Will Wagner to Triple A and carry six outfielders, rather than sending one of Nathan Lukes, Alan Roden or Addison Barger to Buffalo. This tells us that Barger is likely going to get some run at third base, a position he’s spent a lot of time at in the minor leagues. Barger could play the strong side of a third base platoon with Ernie Clement, another Blue Jay who’s limped out of the blocks this season. 

With Barger potentially getting the bulk of his playing time at third, and Varsho’s name set in stone as the centre fielder, we’re left with Lukes, Straw, Springer, and Anthony Santander to split time between the corners. Springer and Santander both need to be in the lineup every day, so we’ll see the two of them split time between right field and DH. However, on Sunday, John Schnieder did mention wanting to get Santander more time in the outfield, indicating we could sometimes see a lineup with Springer in left and Santander in right. This will be a little bit easier to digest now that Varsho's elite glove is back in centre field, but it makes things complicated for Straw and Lukes, who will lose playing time on days that both Springer and Santander start in the outfield.

Although it might not be as sexy as talking about the home runs he’s going to hit, it’s important to mention what Varsho’s return is going to do for the Blue Jays’ defence. Prior to his return, they were completely neutral as a team according to outs above average (OAA), while they ranked eighth in baseball with 10 defensive runs saved (DRS) after leading the league in DRS each of the last two seasons. The bulk of Varsho’s value comes on the defensive side of the ball, and his return will reinforce one of the roster’s strongest attributes, which should make it easier for the pitching staff to keep the offense within striking distance in any given game. It didn't take long for him to flash the leather in his first game back:

All things considered, the return of Daulton Varsho couldn’t be more timely, as the Blue Jays shore up their centre field defense and continue their search for home runs.