The Blue Jays Need to Trade Contact for Impact

The Blue Jays need to score some runs. File that away under “obvious comments I will nonetheless continue to make until things improve.” With an average of 3.5 runs per game (as of Friday), their offense ranks 25th in MLB and last in the AL East.

They have been shut out twice and beaten by five or more runs on four separate occasions. Their -16 run differential suggests they’re lucky to be only one game below .500. According to the Pythagorean Theorem of Baseball, their expected winning percentage is just .417. That’s a 68-win pace. 

The big problem, which Jesse Burrill wrote about earlier this month, is a lack of power. The Blue Jays rank second-to-last in baseball with 13 home runs and a .103 isolated power (ISO). Their hard-hit rate is poor. Their launch angles are sub-optimal. Their barrel rate is the worst in the American League.

Those who think metrics like exit velocity and launch angle are gobbledygook might be confused as to why the Blue Jays are floundering. After all, their .242 team batting average is slightly above league average. Even better, they are one of only four MLB teams with a strikeout rate below 20%. Their 23% whiff rate is the third-lowest in baseball and the best in the American League. Let me recap: When the Blue Jays step up to the plate, they are more likely than the average team to record a hit. When the Blue Jays swing the bat, there’s a good chance they aren’t going to miss. That’s great, isn't it? 

Not exactly. As counterintuitive as it might sound, there’s more to hitting a baseball than just hitting the baseball. The 2025 Blue Jays are learning that lesson the hard way.

The Blue Jays rank among the top 10 teams in MLB in overall swing rate. However, they rank fifth in swing rate outside the strike zone and only 16th in swing rate inside the strike zone (per Baseball Savant). Their zone-swing to outside-swing ratio ranks fourth worst in the sport. In other words, the Jays have employed a shoddy approach at the plate – even though their walk-to-strikeout ratio is second best in the American League. If you prefer a more refined plate discipline metric, I’ll point you in the direction of Robert Orr’s SEAGER, which you can read all about at Baseball Prospectus. SEAGER takes a more nuanced approach than simply comparing in-zone and out-of-zone swing tendencies, but for our purposes, it comes to the same conclusion. Toronto ranks among the bottom five teams in SEAGER in 2025.

Let’s get back to that low whiff rate I mentioned earlier. The Blue Jays’ offense hasn’t done many things well this season, but I always give credit where credit is due: Their bat-to-ball skills have been excellent. Yet, a high contact rate mixed with poor plate discipline is both a blessing and a curse. The Jays rank sixth in MLB in in-zone contact rate. That’s good! Batters accrue positive run value when they make contact on pitches in the strike zone. The problem is that the Blue Jays lead the league in chase contact rate. That’s less good.

Sure, making contact with a pitch outside the strike zone is better than chasing and missing, but it’s far from ideal. Batters accrue negative run value when they make contact on pitches outside the strike zone. It's not hard to see why. For one thing, contact on pitches outside the strike zone is more likely to be foul; best-case scenario, that’s a neutral outcome for the hitter. The bigger issue, however, is the vast difference in quality of contact on balls hit into play. League-wide, batters have a .376 wOBA this season on in-zone contact. Conversely, they have a .282 wOBA on chase contact. This makes a particularly big difference in terms of power production. In-zone contact has a .223 ISO this season. (For context, a Silver Slugger-winning Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a .221 ISO in 2024) Chase contact, on the other hand, has a mere .097 ISO. (For context, a slumping Bo Bichette had a .096 ISO in 2024.)

Want to slug like 2024 Vladdy? Crush pitches inside the strike zone. Want to hit like 2024 Bichette? What are you talking about? Nobody wants to hit like 2024 Bichette.

The Blue Jays swing at pitches outside of the strike zone more than most other teams. They make contact on those swings more than any other team. That goes a long way toward explaining why their power numbers have been so poor to start the year. Too much of their contact is coming on pitches they can’t pummel. And if they can’t fix this soon, the situation is likely only going to get worse. Their .302 wOBA on chase contact is slightly above the league average. However, their .269 xwOBA on chase contact portends disaster.

Another related explanation for the lack of thump is that Blue Jays' swings aren't geared toward power; it's not just what they're swinging at, but how they're swinging. They rank last in MLB with a 70.3-mph average bat speed. Their average swing length is the shortest in the American League. Short, controlled swings have surely helped the Jays maintain their high contact rate, but hacks like that don’t lend themselves well to power production. You know who takes short, slow cuts? Luis Arraez. You know who takes long, fast hacks? Shohei Ohtani. 

So, what do the Blue Jays need to do differently? They’d surely be better off swinging at fewer bad pitches, although that’s easier said than done. Perhaps a more realistic goal for the immediate future could be for Toronto to prioritize faster, longer swings – in other words, to prioritize impact over contact. That’s going to mean more swing-and-miss, but considering the poor quality of so many of the pitches the Blue Jays have put into play… well, whiffing isn’t any worse than hitting yet another pop-up or grounding into yet another double play. More to the point, the pros of a power-oriented approach could far outweigh the cons. This, too, is easier said than done, of course. Not every player can just decide to swing harder or significantly alter their swing at the drop of a hat. Still, increasing swing speed and length are two tangible changes David Popkins can set as goals for his hitters. 

Simply put, what the Blue Jays are doing right now isn’t working, and they can afford to sacrifice some contact for more extra-base hits. Like I said, there’s more to hitting a baseball than just hitting the baseball. Let's hope this team can figure that out before it's too late.

Stats and rankings updated prior to game time on Friday, April 25.