Blue Jays Minor League Highlights Thread

[John_Havok]

6 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Then who is?  It's been brutal across multiple GM's now and he's one of the few common denominators.  

Walker must have some role in it.  I appreciate Walker is traveling around to work with those coaches and minor league players during the season, but I would imagine he sets the organizational strategies and would be a resource for minor league coaches?  I'd imagine he has a hand in choosing who's hired to develop/manage pitchers in the minors too?

Maybe I'm wrong and this is why our development has been brutal.

 

Justin Lehr - Director of Pitching development and Joe Sclafani - director of player development would be responsible for the overall direction of the system and what to focus on broadly. 

As for how this gets executed at each level and for each prospect would be a little more conviluted of you were trying to identify the eaxct reason why player or pitcher X isnt improving the way they wanted or as fast etc. 

Lehr hasnt even been there for 2 full seasons yet. 

[Brownie19]

7 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

Justin Lehr - Director of Pitching development and Joe Sclafani - director of player development would be responsible for the overall direction of the system and what to focus on broadly. 

As for how this gets executed at each level and for each prospect would be a little more conviluted of you were trying to identify the eaxct reason why player or pitcher X isnt improving the way they wanted or as fast etc. 

Lehr hasnt even been there for 2 full seasons yet. 

I just read that the Director of Pitching Development was a new position, created for Justin Lehr in 2025.  Before that, Cory Popham was the Minor League Pitching Coordinator (2023-2024) and the Pitching Development Coordinator (2021-2022).  Cory was seemingly useless and thus fired.  Don't know why they keep renaming the position.

It says Justin Lehr directly shapes pitch design, pitching identity, and individual mechanical adjustments across all minor-league affiliates.  Surely to god, Pete Walker is involved with this and is supportive of the approach.  

Or is this some Art Howe / Moneyball situation, where the org just tells Pete what's going to happen and he can either accept it, or FO.

Whatever we're doing, it's been balls for well over a decade, across multiple GM's.  

[max silver]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

I just read that the Director of Pitching Development was a new position, created for Justin Lehr in 2025.  Before that, Cory Popham was the Minor League Pitching Coordinator (2023-2024) and the Pitching Development Coordinator (2021-2022).  Cory was seemingly useless and thus fired.  Don't know why they keep renaming the position.

It says Justin Lehr directly shapes pitch design, pitching identity, and individual mechanical adjustments across all minor-league affiliates.  Surely to god, Pete Walker is involved with this and is supportive of the approach.  

Or is this some Art Howe / Moneyball situation, where the org just tells Pete what's going to happen and he can either accept it, or FO.

Whatever we're doing, it's been balls for well over a decade, across multiple GM's.  

I think the club has been making strides in pitching development in recent seasons as there has actually been a crop of legitimate pitching prospects working through the system. There was the rash of injuries a few years back that pushed the development back a lot but more and more of these guys are returning and starting to make progress again. I still tend to think it's scapegoating to blame the major league pitching coach for what's happening in the minor leagues as he wouldn't be directly involved in developing these players to any degree.

[John_Havok]

35 minutes ago, max silver said:

I think the club has been making strides in pitching development in recent seasons as there has actually been a crop of legitimate pitching prospects working through the system. There was the rash of injuries a few years back that pushed the development back a lot but more and more of these guys are returning and starting to make progress again. I still tend to think it's scapegoating to blame the major league pitching coach for what's happening in the minor leagues as he wouldn't be directly involved in developing these players to any degree.

I'm legit curious as to the overall hierarchy.

Like, i can absolutely envision Walker having next to 0 input on a pitcher's develooment in the minor leagues since he doesnt see them everyday and he's probably got more than enough on his plate with keeping the 13 arms on the 26 man roster pointed in the right direction and dealing with their day-to-day. I very much doubt Walker knows more than 20 pitchers names off hand in the entire system below the 40 man roster. 

From the sounds of it Lehr is now the guy who decides the what and the why of each pitcher's development track and my guess would then be it's a combination of the pitching coaches at each level, the roving coordinators and the strength and conditioning that are responsible to put each plan into action on a day to day basis, at least from A+ and up. 

The Dunedin and Complex level guys probably get additional help from the pitching lab in addition to the above.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I think the club has been making strides in pitching development in recent seasons as there has actually been a crop of legitimate pitching prospects working through the system. There was the rash of injuries a few years back that pushed the development back a lot but more and more of these guys are returning and starting to make progress again. I still tend to think it's scapegoating to blame the major league pitching coach for what's happening in the minor leagues as he wouldn't be directly involved in developing these players to any degree.

I'm not sure I see these strides.  Obviously Yesavage is the major one, but he was a near ready arm who only threw 110 innings in the minors. 

It's King and Perry - almost every prospect who's noteworthy has sucked this year.  

[Brownie19]

27 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

I'm legit curious as to the overall hierarchy.

Like, i can absolutely envision Walker having next to 0 input on a pitcher's develooment in the minor leagues since he doesnt see them everyday and he's probably got more than enough on his plate with keeping the 13 arms on the 26 man roster pointed in the right direction and dealing with their day-to-day. I very much doubt Walker knows more than 20 pitchers names off hand in the entire system below the 40 man roster. 

From the sounds of it Lehr is now the guy who decides the what and the why of each pitcher's development track and my guess would then be it's a combination of the pitching coaches at each level, the roving coordinators and the strength and conditioning that are responsible to put each plan into action on a day to day basis, at least from A+ and up. 

The Dunedin and Complex level guys probably get additional help from the pitching lab in addition to the above.

That's pretty sad if true.  A lot of people here could do it - and we're not getting paid to know the organization.

Do you think Lehr decides pitch shapes, pitch usage, changes to what they throw, etc.  Do you think they tell Pete what this pitcher is going to do and why?

Like with Soriano - is it Pete who's going to make the decision to scrap his 4 seamer?  Or is Lehr going to tell both Soriano and Pete - and tell them that's the direction the org wants?

[max silver]

8 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

I'm not sure I see these strides.  Obviously Yesavage is the major one, but he was a near ready arm who only threw 110 innings in the minors. 

It's King and Perry - almost every prospect who's noteworthy has sucked this year.  

Guerra has been making noise and appears to have taken a large step forward. Bloss was showing improved stuff but the results were rough in his rehab stint before the apparent shoulder injury. Barriera has had a bit of a rough road but he's coming off of elbow reconstruction and has suffered from further injury issues. At least he's back pitching again and hopefully can build a bit of momentum. The only real disappointment in my eyes who has been fully healthy has been Stanifer as he's appeared to have suffered from command issues and may be destined for the bullpen.

[Brownie19]

Silvano Hechavarria took enough steps back this year that he should probably try another sport.

Guerra doesn't look all that interesting.  More K's I guess - AA will tell us more.  I guess the bar is extremely low these days.

Barriera, Bloss, Ricky T - these guys are all broken man.  "Progress" is those 3 throwing 68 2/3 innings combined this year.  And the bright spot is simply that they pitched because the results have been horrendous - like a combined ERA over 6.  2 of the 3 broke under that overwhelming workload and the other guy has thrown 6 inning over the past 2 years and just 23 1/3 since 2023.  I guess Spencer Miles is a reminder that crazier things have happened, but the chance any of these 3 ever pitch meaningful innings at the ML level is like <5% IMO.

Sorry to sh*t on all of this.  I just don't view this as much progress from Lehr.

The best thing that happened this year was Spencer Miles, who just magically fell into our lap. 

[John_Havok]

45 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's pretty sad if true.  A lot of people here could do it - and we're not getting paid to know the organization.

Do you think Lehr decides pitch shapes, pitch usage, changes to what they throw, etc.  Do you think they tell Pete what this pitcher is going to do and why?

Like with Soriano - is it Pete who's going to make the decision to scrap his 4 seamer?  Or is Lehr going to tell both Soriano and Pete - and tell them that's the direction the org wants?

No idea, i'm sure Lehr gets input from literally everyone along with whatever data and metrics they use from the lab and doesn't just make arbitrary decisions just to make them. 

It's also probably a very different process for veteran arms than it is for high school kids that were just drafted.

 

[max silver]

22 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

Silvano Hechavarria took enough steps back this year that he should probably try another sport.

Guerra doesn't look all that interesting.  More K's I guess - AA will tell us more.  I guess the bar is extremely low these days.

Barriera, Bloss, Ricky T - these guys are all broken man.  "Progress" is those 3 throwing 68 2/3 innings combined this year.  And the bright spot is simply that they pitched because the results have been horrendous - like a combined ERA over 6.  2 of the 3 broke under that overwhelming workload and the other guy has thrown 6 inning over the past 2 years and just 23 1/3 since 2023.  I guess Spencer Miles is a reminder that crazier things have happened, but the chance any of these 3 ever pitch meaningful innings at the ML level is like <5% IMO.

Sorry to sh*t on all of this.  I just don't view this as much progress from Lehr.

The best thing that happened this year was Spencer Miles, who just magically fell into our lap. 

Guerra increasing his K rate by 10% despite pitching in a higher level is exciting to me but apparently you have different standards. Danny Thompson Jr. is another guy who has improved his stuff and is having a nice season in the minor leagues.

[Brownie19]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

Guerra increasing his K rate by 10% despite pitching in a higher level is exciting to me but apparently you have different standards.

His walk rate increased and was 4.42 as a 22 year old in A+ ball.  His xFIP was 3.97, which is a career high for him.  Those metrics dampen my outlook on him.

If he qualifies as the 2nd bright spot in our system (amongst pitchers) - I think that's pretty sad man.  

[max silver]

13 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

His walk rate increased and was 4.42 as a 22 year old in A+ ball.  His xFIP was 3.97, which is a career high for him.  Those metrics dampen my outlook on him.

If he qualifies as the 2nd bright spot in our system (amongst pitchers) - I think that's pretty sad man.  

I wouldn't say that Guerra is the second bright spot as I would rank both King and Perry well ahead of him. If you have to go to to the lengths of using xFIP to hate on a pitching prospect that seems to be grasping at straws. Stanifer has potential as a rotation arm as well but will need to improve upon his strike throwing if he's not going to find himself moved to a bullpen spot.

[Brownie19]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I wouldn't say that Guerra is the second bright spot as I would rank both King and Perry well ahead of him. If you have to go to to the lengths of using xFIP to hate on a pitching prospect that seems to be grasping at straws. Stanifer has potential as a rotation arm as well but will need to improve upon his strike throwing if he's not going to find himself moved to a bullpen spot.

Sorry - you you're re right - 3rd bright spot.

I typically look at K's, BB's and xFIP when looking at any pitcher.  Those are the 3 main metrics I scan to get a feeling for how good a pitcher is.  What do you look at?

[John_Havok]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

Sorry - you you're re right - 3rd bright spot.

I typically look at K's, BB's and xFIP when looking at any pitcher.  Those are the 3 main metrics I scan to get a feeling for how good a pitcher is.  What do you look at?

Eggheads. 

I look at whether his girlfriend is hot or not, and whether they drive a Porsche 911 with a quadraphonic blaupunkt. 

Oh, and whether he announces his presence with authority.

everything after that is statistical noise

[bronson44]

A little more like it for Barriera

 

[metafour]

4 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

Silvano Hechavarria took enough steps back this year that he should probably try another sport.

Guerra doesn't look all that interesting.  More K's I guess - AA will tell us more.  I guess the bar is extremely low these days.

Barriera, Bloss, Ricky T - these guys are all broken man.  "Progress" is those 3 throwing 68 2/3 innings combined this year.  And the bright spot is simply that they pitched because the results have been horrendous - like a combined ERA over 6.  2 of the 3 broke under that overwhelming workload and the other guy has thrown 6 inning over the past 2 years and just 23 1/3 since 2023.  I guess Spencer Miles is a reminder that crazier things have happened, but the chance any of these 3 ever pitch meaningful innings at the ML level is like <5% IMO.

Sorry to sh*t on all of this.  I just don't view this as much progress from Lehr.

The best thing that happened this year was Spencer Miles, who just magically fell into our lap. 

What the hell are you talking about, man?

You realize that Daniel Guerra is like 6'6 240 and sits ~96 while touching 99 mph, with a wipeout slider, right? That kid has a rocket launcher for an arm. You are being obtuse, or you really don't know anything about this prospect. 

You seem to have forgotten Nolan Perry who came out of nowhere and is a borderline Top 100 prospect. In fact, he probably would have been there had he not gotten hit in the head with a line-drive. He has been completely dominant.

Tiedemann is clearly destined as bullpen only at this point, but he is back in AAA with the same stuff he was showing pre-injury. He got hit around in his last outing, but 96+ from the left hand side can play as a potential late inning reliever.

Bloss' results don't really matter that much because his command was all over the place post-TJ (which is normal). His stuff was actually up across the board before he got sidelined again. Obviously if his shoulder is toast then its a different matter entirely, but the stuff looked even better than it was pre-injury, hence why he is still ranked near the Top 100 guy on multiple lists (FG, TJStats) despite horrible "results".

You forgot/left out the following developments this season:

Danny Thompson: A $5k senior signing from last year's draft who is up to AA with a big jump in his velocity. He is now a ~mid 90's fastball guy who can throw strikes. 9.28 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and just 0.84 HR/9 in AA. Its a back-end starter profile, but this guy was drafted as severe under-slot pick.

Carson Messina: His fastball shape is awesome and he can spin two distinct breaking balls. Coming on really strong in Dunedin after coming back from injury last season. Big potential as he has more in the tank with the fastball velocity.

Angel Rivero: This kid was the 3rd piece that just got sent off to LA for Soriano, but he was a Top 20 prospect in the FCL. Would have been a guy to watch down the pipe-line had he not been traded as a breakout prospect.

 

Its really just Hechavarria and Stanifer who have clearly gone backwards this season. The rest of their top pitchers have maintained or progressed, with a few guys (mentioned above) who have taken big jumps this year. Guys like Tiedemann and Barriera are hard to include in this because their issue is that they can't stay on the mound. Even Barriera threw a gem tonight in Dunedin (4 perfect innings with 6 K's).

 

[Laika]

44 minutes ago, metafour said:

What the hell are you talking about, man?

You realize that Daniel Guerra is like 6'6 240 and sits ~96 while touching 99 mph, with a wipeout slider, right? That kid has a rocket launcher for an arm. You are being obtuse, or you really don't know anything about this prospect. 

You seem to have forgotten Nolan Perry who came out of nowhere and is a borderline Top 100 prospect. In fact, he probably would have been there had he not gotten hit in the head with a line-drive. He has been completely dominant.

Tiedemann is clearly destined as bullpen only at this point, but he is back in AAA with the same stuff he was showing pre-injury. He got hit around in his last outing, but 96+ from the left hand side can play as a potential late inning reliever.

Bloss' results don't really matter that much because his command was all over the place post-TJ (which is normal). His stuff was actually up across the board before he got sidelined again. Obviously if his shoulder is toast then its a different matter entirely, but the stuff looked even better than it was pre-injury, hence why he is still ranked near the Top 100 guy on multiple lists (FG, TJStats) despite horrible "results".

You forgot/left out the following developments this season:

Danny Thompson: A $5k senior signing from last year's draft who is up to AA with a big jump in his velocity. He is now a ~mid 90's fastball guy who can throw strikes. 9.28 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and just 0.84 HR/9 in AA. Its a back-end starter profile, but this guy was drafted as severe under-slot pick.

Carson Messina: His fastball shape is awesome and he can spin two distinct breaking balls. Coming on really strong in Dunedin after coming back from injury last season. Big potential as he has more in the tank with the fastball velocity.

Angel Rivero: This kid was the 3rd piece that just got sent off to LA for Soriano, but he was a Top 20 prospect in the FCL. Would have been a guy to watch down the pipe-line had he not been traded as a breakout prospect.

 

Its really just Hechavarria and Stanifer who have clearly gone backwards this season. The rest of their top pitchers have maintained or progressed, with a few guys (mentioned above) who have taken big jumps this year. Guys like Tiedemann and Barriera are hard to include in this because their issue is that they can't stay on the mound. Even Barriera threw a gem tonight in Dunedin (4 perfect innings with 6 K's).

 

Yes the story on the minor league pitching side this year has been mostly positive 

Also, the team in the last two years has shown some big improvements in MLB pitching development. Finding relievers, acquiring fringe guys, helping veterans get better. Lots of positives there too. 

[Brownie19]

10 hours ago, metafour said:

What the hell are you talking about, man?

You realize that Daniel Guerra is like 6'6 240 and sits ~96 while touching 99 mph, with a wipeout slider, right? That kid has a rocket launcher for an arm. You are being obtuse, or you really don't know anything about this prospect. 

You seem to have forgotten Nolan Perry who came out of nowhere and is a borderline Top 100 prospect. In fact, he probably would have been there had he not gotten hit in the head with a line-drive. He has been completely dominant.

Tiedemann is clearly destined as bullpen only at this point, but he is back in AAA with the same stuff he was showing pre-injury. He got hit around in his last outing, but 96+ from the left hand side can play as a potential late inning reliever.

Bloss' results don't really matter that much because his command was all over the place post-TJ (which is normal). His stuff was actually up across the board before he got sidelined again. Obviously if his shoulder is toast then its a different matter entirely, but the stuff looked even better than it was pre-injury, hence why he is still ranked near the Top 100 guy on multiple lists (FG, TJStats) despite horrible "results".

You forgot/left out the following developments this season:

Danny Thompson: A $5k senior signing from last year's draft who is up to AA with a big jump in his velocity. He is now a ~mid 90's fastball guy who can throw strikes. 9.28 K/9, 1.90 BB/9, and just 0.84 HR/9 in AA. Its a back-end starter profile, but this guy was drafted as severe under-slot pick.

Carson Messina: His fastball shape is awesome and he can spin two distinct breaking balls. Coming on really strong in Dunedin after coming back from injury last season. Big potential as he has more in the tank with the fastball velocity.

Angel Rivero: This kid was the 3rd piece that just got sent off to LA for Soriano, but he was a Top 20 prospect in the FCL. Would have been a guy to watch down the pipe-line had he not been traded as a breakout prospect.

Its really just Hechavarria and Stanifer who have clearly gone backwards this season. The rest of their top pitchers have maintained or progressed, with a few guys (mentioned above) who have taken big jumps this year. Guys like Tiedemann and Barriera are hard to include in this because their issue is that they can't stay on the mound. Even Barriera threw a gem tonight in Dunedin (4 perfect innings with 6 K's).

Guilty - I have no idea who Guerra is.  Just stat scouting (radio scouting?).  I'm glad to hear he's a mutant with great stuff.  The results still don't excite me.  Hope he can pull it all together.

I didn't forget Perry - I mentioned him several times.  It's him and King (and Guerra I'm told).

I will admit I don't know much about the new guys like Danny Thompson.  I was just going off the Fangraph's Top 40, which isn't updated.  I clicked on all the names and the results are pretty f*cking sad.  Sam Shaw has been good in limited ABs at least - he's a positive on the offensive side.

It's good to see Messina healthy again.  But the results are pretty ugly man.  5.12 xFIP and 5.64 BB/9.  His K's are great - I hope he can harness it all, but the low ERA looks like a mirage, carried by a low BABIP.  You are correct that I don't look beyond these few basic metrics.  I'm not looking at pitch shapes.  I don't even have access to velo - or I'm far too lazy to find that stuff.

I am happy to hear some of those positive things, but it would be nice to see more results.  I'm definitely jaded by the lack of development over the past decade.

 

[John_Havok]

Not sure how much to read into this but Stanifer's last 2 appeaeances in New Hampshire have been out of the pen.

Not an innings limit thing as he's still about 25 innings short of last years totals. 

[Olerud363.354]

16 hours ago, Brownie19 said:

I typically look at K's, BB's and xFIP when looking at any pitcher.  Those are the 3 main metrics I scan to get a feeling for how good a pitcher is.  What do you look at?

I look at career minor league ERA, walks, strike-outs and homeruns and innings pitched to get a feel for health and sample size.   

Hard press to find a lot of cases where this will fail you.  Or maybe there are.  Of course ERA can't be trusted over 60 innings but...

Find me a guy who is pitching 100 innings a year in the minors.  Good k/bb.  Low homeruns given up.  Consistent career age appropriate numbers.  

I totally get that when all you have is 60 innings in low A, you can't go by ERA (though hr rate and k/bb probably already tell you a lot).   But what you want to see is the conventional numbers just look good over the years and stay nice as the y advance through age appropriate levels. 

So I think the issue maybe here is (Stanifer, Bloss and a few others) is that the simple numbers aren't staying nice in the upper minors. 

 

[Laika]

Stanifer was a 19th round pick, the fact that he is even on the radar as a relief of SP6 prospect is promising. 

Messina was a 12th rounder signed for $550k and was known the be injured. It's great to see him on the mound, healthy, and flashing some stuff. His walk rate is not alarming to me. 

They NAILED the 2024 draft with Yesavage, Stephan, and then Johnny King. And then Messina and Troy Guthrie (a lower upside but somewhat interesting command - starter profile) later on. 

It feels, to me, like the org is coming into its own when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers. But they still need to put the finishing touches on guys and that has often been the issue. That and keeping them healthy. 

If you go from like 2023 backwards you can put together such a long, sad list of guys who were very promising, or at time looked like value draft picks, or were high draft picks, but either could not stay healthy or could never get over the MLB development bump or just sucked right away:

• Landen Maroudis (2023)
• Brandon Barriera (2022)
• Connor Cooke (2021) briefly looked like a future RP Ace
• Juenger
• Irv Carter
• Tiedeman
• Hoglund
• CJ Van Eyk (2020)
• Manoah (2019)
• Kendall Williams
• Kloff (2018)
• Joey Murray (2018)
• Pearson (2017)
• Hagen Danner (2017)
• Zeuch (2016) ZOINKS! 
• Jon Harris (2015)
• Justin Maese (2015)
• Hoffman (2014)
• SRF 
• Bickford (2013) and Hollon and Patrick Murphy

 

From 2020 on, you can understand because they were trading away lots of guys like Hoglund and there was some bad luck in there with Tiedeman and Barriera and some others. Also in the last few years lots of promise emerging, like Nolan Perry was a 2022 pick so the book is still open on most of these years. Barriera could still be a good reliever or something. Tiedemann just has to be a setup man to be worth it. 

BUT in between say 2014 and 2019 it was very bad. Basically just produced Alek Manoah and he was an 11th overall pick which SHOULD be something, and even he could not stay healthy. Whiffed on a ton of first round arms. And the infamous run of Jon Harris and TJ Zeuch. Pearson never being a thing really hurt. Hoffman, flopped as a SP prospect. These were dark times.

They had some chops before that. Matt Boyd in 2013, Stroman the year before. Some other good picks sprinkled in here and there like Deslafani and Mayza and the huge 2010 draft with Sanchez and Syndergaard. 

[John_Havok]

20 minutes ago, Laika said:

Stanifer was a 19th round pick, the fact that he is even on the radar as a relief of SP6 prospect is promising. 

Messina was a 12th rounder signed for $550k and was known the be injured. It's great to see him on the mound, healthy, and flashing some stuff. His walk rate is not alarming to me. 

They NAILED the 2024 draft with Yesavage, Stephan, and then Johnny King. And then Messina and Troy Guthrie (a lower upside but somewhat interesting command - starter profile) later on. 

It feels, to me, like the org is coming into its own when it comes to drafting and developing pitchers. But they still need to put the finishing touches on guys and that has often been the issue. That and keeping them healthy. 

If you go from like 2023 backwards you can put together such a long, sad list of guys who were very promising, or at time looked like value draft picks, or were high draft picks, but either could not stay healthy or could never get over the MLB development bump or just sucked right away:

• Landen Maroudis (2023)
• Brandon Barriera (2022)
• Connor Cooke (2021) briefly looked like a future RP Ace
• Juenger
• Irv Carter
• Tiedeman
• Hoglund
• CJ Van Eyk (2020)
• Manoah (2019)
• Kendall Williams
• Kloff (2018)
• Joey Murray (2018)
• Pearson (2017)
• Hagen Danner (2017)
• Zeuch (2016) ZOINKS! 
• Jon Harris (2015)
• Justin Maese (2015)
• Hoffman (2014)
• SRF 
• Bickford (2013) and Hollon and Patrick Murphy

 

From 2020 on, you can understand because they were trading away lots of guys like Hoglund and there was some bad luck in there with Tiedeman and Barriera and some others. Also in the last few years lots of promise emerging, like Nolan Perry was a 2022 pick so the book is still open on most of these years. Barriera could still be a good reliever or something. Tiedemann just has to be a setup man to be worth it. 

BUT in between say 2014 and 2019 it was very bad. Basically just produced Alek Manoah and he was an 11th overall pick which SHOULD be something, and even he could not stay healthy. Whiffed on a ton of first round arms. And the infamous run of Jon Harris and TJ Zeuch. Pearson never being a thing really hurt. Hoffman, flopped as a SP prospect. These were dark times.

They had some chops before that. Matt Boyd in 2013, Stroman the year before. Some other good picks sprinkled in here and there like Deslafani and Mayza and the huge 2010 draft with Sanchez and Syndergaard. 

What year did the complex in Dunedin get renovated to add that player performance lab?

Edit: spring of 2021. 

5 years. Is that about the length of time you'd start to see more consistency in development on a year to year basis?

Theres so many variables in this, how does one even gauge how successful the complex and its 3 performance labs have been? 

Do we look at the pure numbers like velo increases? Pitch shapes and spin rates? Or... increases in K rates with decreases in walk rates? Health? 

How many pitchers have to show these increases and improvements? What if all those improvements still don't translate to the on-field results as often as they should (in theory).

What if they show major inprovements as a forgotten 19th rounder from complex league to AA and then fizzle? Is that success or not? 

[Brownie19]

9 minutes ago, Laika said:

If you go from like 2023 backwards you can put together such a long, sad list of guys who were very promising, or at time looked like value draft picks, or were high draft picks, but either could not stay healthy or could never get over the MLB development bump or just sucked right away:

• Landen Maroudis (2023)
• Brandon Barriera (2022)
• Connor Cooke (2021) briefly looked like a future RP Ace
• Juenger
• Irv Carter
• Tiedeman
• Hoglund
• CJ Van Eyk (2020)
• Manoah (2019)
• Kendall Williams
• Kloff (2018)
• Joey Murray (2018)
• Pearson (2017)
• Hagen Danner (2017)
• Zeuch (2016) ZOINKS! 
• Jon Harris (2015)
• Justin Maese (2015)
• Hoffman (2014)
• SRF 
• Bickford (2013) and Hollon and Patrick Murphy

[Laika]

56 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

What year did the complex in Dunedin get renovated to add that player performance lab?

Edit: spring of 2021. 

5 years. Is that about the length of time you'd start to see more consistency in development on a year to year basis?

Theres so many variables in this, how does one even gauge how successful the complex and its 3 performance labs have been? 

Do we look at the pure numbers like velo increases? Pitch shapes and spin rates? Or... increases in K rates with decreases in walk rates? Health? 

How many pitchers have to show these increases and improvements? What if all those improvements still don't translate to the on-field results as often as they should (in theory).

What if they show major inprovements as a forgotten 19th rounder from complex league to AA and then fizzle? Is that success or not? 

Realistically having a good complex is just an "extra 2%" thing 

These players get high level development in college and prep and privately. Pitching labs are everywhere.

The real gold is made in the draft and international signing arenas. Tolle, Early, and Eyanson were draft steals by Boston, not development wins.

[Brownie19]

16 minutes ago, Laika said:

Realistically having a good complex is just an "extra 2%" thing 

These players get high level development in college and prep and privately. Pitching labs are everywhere.

The real gold is made in the draft and international signing arenas. Tolle, Early, and Eyanson were draft steals by Boston, not development wins.

Do you think there are teams that consistently draft "steals" (or prospects that succeed)?  Or does that remain somewhat of a crap shoot?

What causes players to bust?  Typically injuries, distractions and I believe it's the inability to control the mental side of the game.  I don't know the numbers, but I suspect like 50% of 1st round picks never have any type of sustained career in the majors (maybe it's even higher?).  Do some teams have cheat codes that allow them to avoid the busts?  Or do we just see teams that get more lucky than the others a few years in a row and that gives us the illusion that they have elite scouting/drafting?  I'm sure someone will suggest the Dodgers have the cheat code, and maybe they do, but are there other teams?  Are there more than 5 teams we think consistently draft better than other teams?  Why so few?  With executives moving around so often, you'd think the secrets would get spread around.

Drafts seem like the most obviously place to add young, affordable, controllable talent - which is a huge driving factor of sustained success, yet it feels like it's still some magical guessing game.

[Laika]

It is a high variance game and luck is a huge part of it, but you can still be good at it. 

It's very technical. The game evolves, baseball science evolves, you need to constantly be chasing improved amateur draft models. There is a technological arms race going on that you could compare to some kind of high risk, high upside financial market. And then some influence of the human talent as well (scouts and executives would have varying talents). 

My gut says that at any given time there are probably 5 teams that are ahead of the curve in some respect, 5 teams behind the times, and then 20 teams who are kind of just reading water and participating in the draft casino. 

[Brownie19]

10 minutes ago, Laika said:

It is a high variance game and luck is a huge part of it, but you can still be good at it. 

It's very technical. The game evolves, baseball science evolves, you need to constantly be chasing improved amateur draft models. There is a technological arms race going on that you could compare to some kind of high risk, high upside financial market. And then some influence of the human talent as well (scouts and executives would have varying talents). 

My gut says that at any given time there are probably 5 teams that are ahead of the curve in some respect, 5 teams behind the times, and then 20 teams who are kind of just reading water and participating in the draft casino. 

Always appreciate your thoughts on this type of thing.  I think that's all well said.

[Olerud363.354]

57 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

What causes players to bust?

For hitters my impression has always been there is some very hard to measure hand eye coordination factors at play and no scout or amateur stats can totally detect it.  

Look at Gruber's favorite two player Kirk and Moreno.  Very similar guys truth be told and when they showed up at 18 in some hick league in West Virginia or Tennessee or morning swamp league in Florida  they put up video game numbers in 20 games. 

Then you get other guys who hit .155 with 2 walks and 30ks in those 20 games... and nobody knew before they showed up to face professional pitching.  3 weeks later they know. 

I exaggerate a bit, of course many players don't give you a performance extreme from which you can make a conclusion in 20 games,  but you find out once enough data accumulates... but nobody every seemed to know before hand. 

I bet the scout who recommended paying the 3 million bonus, is like 'ah f***' real quick if the minor league numbers start coming in bad. 

[Olerud363.354]

6 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

but nobody every seemed to know before hand. 

I mean they sort of know.  It's not completely random, but the magnitude of mistakes they make on both ends is sort of funny, both the 3 million dollar guy who can't hit in the FSL and the 100k guy who shows up hitting .350 there with 2-1 bb to k.  

[Laika]

5 minutes ago, Olerud363.354 said:

For hitters my impression has always been there is some very hard to measure hand eye coordination factors at play and no scout or amateur stats can totally detect it.  

Look at Gruber's favorite two player Kirk and Moreno.  Very similar guys truth be told and when they showed up at 18 in some hick league in West Virginia or Tennessee or morning swamp league in Florida  they put up video game numbers in 20 games. 

Then you get other guys who hit .155 with 2 walks and 30ks in those 20 games... and nobody knew before they showed up to face professional pitching.  3 weeks later they know. 

I exaggerate a bit, of course many players don't give you a performance extreme from which you can make a conclusion in 20 games,  but you find out once enough data accumulates... but nobody every seemed to know before hand. 

I bet the scout who recommended paying the 3 million bonus, is like 'ah f***' real quick if the minor league numbers start coming in bad. 

Yeah the issue is just the data. The source information. The amateur info. 

Guys in college have solid enough data if they were healthy and played. Their competition was decent, and measurable, and you can see their swing speeds and velo and stuff. 

The high school and international guys, nothing like that exists. They play a bunch of other kids who are not in fact peers of them. Not pro prospects. Even at the elite combines and stuff, a good portion of the opponents are not relevant challenges. 

You could DESIGN a new way to measure what would be helpful. Mobile trajekt style things for hitters. Put the 17 year old in the trailer for 30 minutes and measure everything you can - his bat speed, swing path, his ability to adjust and make contact with various pitch types, recognize pitch type and location...