Shape of the Blue Jays: Giménez, Gausman, Okamoto

[Matthew Creally]

Welcome to Shape of the Blue Jays, my column where I dig into Statcast numbers to analyze recent pitch shape and swing shape trends for Toronto Blue Jays players and discuss how they have impacted their performance. Click here to read the last edition.

Quick Hits: Prospects

• With the back end of the bullpen set to be a revolving door until the pitching staff is fully healthy, the status of various arms at Triple-A Buffalo should be of prudent short-term interest to the fanbase. LHP Adam Macko has begun his season with four scoreless appearances (5.1 IP) out of the bullpen, striking out six and walking two. Macko has leaned heavily on his fastball, which has averaged 95 mph with 16.3" of iVB. Opponents have managed a .175 xwOBA against it and swung and missed a third of the time.
• RHP Chase Lee, one of the later spring training cuts, has also been called on for multi-inning appearances out of the bullpen in the early going (4 G, 6.2 IP). He has given up two earned runs and an additional three unearned. Lee, whose walk rate has typically hovered just above 5%, has been fighting his command somewhat, with four free passes issued so far. The zone rate on his sinker was 62% in the majors last year. It has tumbled to 30% so far with Buffalo.

Andrés Giménez

Andrés Giménez collected three hits during the Dodgers series. On the season, he has been one of the few bright spots offensively, slashing .267/.313/.444, thanks in large part to considerable improvements in contact% (55th to 74th percentile), K% (70th to 90th percentile), and squared-up% (35th to 86th percentile) compared to 2025. He's putting the bat on the ball more often and making more flush contact when he does. His zone contact% usually sits in the low 80s. It's up to 93.4% in 2026.

Andrés Giménez Bat Tracking, 2025 vs 2026

Split	Bat Speed	Fast Swing%	Swing Length	Contact Point (rel. to home plate)	Stance Angle	Attack Direction
2025	69.3	7.1%	7.0'	2.2"	10° open	3° oppo
2026	66.8	2.7%	6.9'	0.1"	2° close	5° oppo

A quick look at Giménez's swing mechanics shows a drop of more than 2 mph in average bat speed from last year and a fast swing rate of just 2.7%. I feel like this might be a byproduct of something more intentional. Bat speed accelerates throughout the swing, and he's now letting the ball travel farther than usual. In addition, he's more closed in his stance than last year. These two changes have allowed him to use the whole field more and hit for a higher average. Giménez hasn't hit a ball 110 mph since 2021 and has never recorded a hard hit rate better than the 36th percentile in a season, so it seems he's leaning into a contact-focused gameplan.

Andrés Giménez stance comparison, April 2025 (left) vs. April 2026 (right)

Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman has been nothing short of electric to watch in his first three starts (2.08 ERA, 17.1 IP). The veteran leads qualified AL starters in strikeout rate (40.7%) and didn't walk his first batter of the season until Tuesday night against the Dodgers. He has made one straightforward adjustment in 2026: The splitter is now his primary pitch to both lefties and righties, although it's very close to an even 50/50 with the four-seamer against righties so far. This is the most frequently he has thrown it in his career.

Kevin Gausman career pitch usage by season (Statcast)

Gausman has very slightly raised his vertical release point to its highest average since 2022. This has helped the splitter play up, as it has a more north-south profile than we've come to expect. More drop, less arm-side tail, and more vertical separation from his fastball, which has averaged roughly an inch more of iVB than 2025. This results in more uncompetitive swings from hitters who are sitting on the heater. The splitter has dumbfounded righties this season, who are striking out in 50% of their plate appearances against him.

Kevin Gausman Splitter Specs, 2025 vs. 2026

Year	MPH	iVB	Arm-side HB	Vert. Release
2025	84.9	4.5"	15.5"	5.6'
2026	84.2	2.9"	13.8"	5.8'

Kazuma Okamoto

His first couple of weeks in the big leagues have tested Kazuma Okamoto (.239/.314/.391, 109 wRC+). Everything the Jays thought about his ceiling is still intact, if not better than expected: He has a 75th-percentile barrel rate (11.5%), 71st-percentile bat speed (73.4 MPH), 91st-percentile xwOBACON (.482), and he hit a 420-foot home run to the opposite field against the A's last weekend. The trouble has been getting bat to ball. He's striking out nearly 30% of the time and making contact in the zone only 77% of the time. The recurring question about hitters coming over from NPB is how they'll handle high velocity because it isn't as prevalent in Japan. Okamoto hasn't had much trouble there, but is running a swing-and-miss rate over 50% on secondaries.

My hunch is this trend will reverse course for the better soon enough. Swinging and missing wasn't a part of his game with the Yomiuri Giants, so hopefully it's merely a part of the adjustment period. Okamoto seems to be pressing when he's up in big spots, which would only support that theory.

I do wonder if the Jays will try to optimize his swing to reduce strikeout probability: His bat path is flat, but he has a high attack angle and a shallow contact point, indicating he's trying to be early and lift the ball. A 6° attack direction to the pull side is also consistent with the early reports that he's a pull-air guy. He does have one of the longest swings in the game at 7.9 feet, and he doesn't really shorten up with two strikes either. If he can find a way to decrease his margin for error without losing bat speed, results should soon follow.

All visuals and figures courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs. Up to date as of April 9, 2026.

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