How Not to Situationally Hit

[Matthew Creally]

One of the Blue Jays' greatest strengths last year was their ability to come through when it mattered with the bats. Getting runners on base and bringing them in are two very important and very distinct parts of hitting, but in 2025, the Jays' tendency to do both at a high frequency was a breath of fresh air compared to 2023 and 2024, when their offense was prone to looking lifeless.

A mere 11 games into 2026, they own a 4-7 record (before play on April 8) and have gone from fourth in the league to 26th in runs scored per game. It shouldn't come as much of a surprise, then, that their situational hitting has gotten worse. For how crucial it is to consistent production, success, and failure, for that matter, performance with runners in scoring position, at both the hitter and team level, is noisy, unpredictable, and thus not that stable year over year. Regression happens both ways, and it's happening to the Blue Jays in a big way right now.

Blue Jays Hitting w/RISP, 2025 vs. 2026

 

Year	AVG	MLB AVG Rank	wRC+	MLB wRC+ Rank
2025	.292	1	122	2
2026	.213	26	77	26

Forgive me if you've heard this a lot lately, but it's still early days. We're about 7% of the way through the season so far, a sample small enough for these numbers to work themselves out over time. Only, I'm not so sure they will if the Jays don't adjust their game plan in these spots. They have been a far cry from their best selves when key run-scoring chances arise, and if some of the current trends we're seeing were to continue for the rest of the season, it'll be a year to forget.

The Jays overhauled their offensive coaching staff going into last year. The trio of David Popkins, Lou Iannotti, and Hunter Mense (the latter is now with the Giants) helped a lineup that was already great at getting bat to ball to hit with more power. Our own Jesse Burrill recently highlighted the positive changes that occurred under their watch: The hitters started swinging faster, adding more bat speed as the year went on, and doing damage. Jesse also rightfully made note of what has changed this year, namely their lack of discipline. At the time of his writing, the Blue Jays had the league's third-worst chase rate. 

It goes deeper than that, though. Toronto's coaches obviously aren't telling the hitters to swing out of their shoes, least of all when runners are on base, but the complete abandonment of a sound approach up and down the lineup when they need it most has been worrisome.

Blue Jays Hitting w/RISP, 2025 vs. 2026: Underlying Metrics

 

Hitter	2025 K%	2025 Chase%	2025 Hard-Hit%	2026 K%	2026 Chase%	2026 Hard-Hit%
George Springer	22.5%	22.9%	50.0%	31.6%	40.5%	30.0%
Addison Barger	21.2%	32.7%	55.8%	0.0%	44.0%	33.3%
Nathan Lukes	15.3%	35.6%	32.2%	25.0%	55.2%	16.7%
Daulton Varsho	33.3%	33.6%	54.3%	12.5%	29.4%	25.0%

This is a somewhat arbitrary sample of hitters who were all given the spotlight here for various reasons. They are not solely responsible for the team's futility with runners in scoring position, but combined, they are 4-for-33 in these spots. That's a batting average of .121! I highlighted the chase% columns because that's what's most alarming: Springer has nearly doubled his chase rate from 2025 with RISP. To put it mildly, Lukes and Barger haven't seen the ball well either. Varsho's at least getting bat on ball and not chasing as much, but the contact he has made has been less threatening.

Right in the middle of all this has been Kazuma Okamoto. He's clearly a very talented hitter – a 420-foot opposite field home run on opening weekend made that clear – and his .262/.340/.429 slash line (127 wRC+) would be a delight to the fanbase if he could make it last. However, he has looked completely lost in high-leverage situations. Adjusting to the quality of competition in MLB is a challenge for hitters coming from NPB, but adjusting mentally looks to be just as crucial of a task for Okamoto. Whatever's going on between his ears when he steps up with RISP is holding him back.

Kazuma Okamoto Splits, 2026

 

Split	AB	AVG	SLG	xBA	Zone Swing%	Chase%	Contact%	K%
w/RISP	10	.100	.100	.103	58.3%	24.1%	57.1%	54.5%
Total	42	.262	.429	.246	60.2%	26.9%	62.1%	40.4%

This explains why he's dead-last among Blue Jays with at least 20 plate appearances in win probability added, per FanGraphs' model (-0.51). In run-scoring at-bats, ones that can dramatically swing a team's chances of winning, he has yet to come through. It's presumably not the kind of thing the Blue Jays are worried about long-term, but it's nonetheless evidence that the transition from overseas is anything but linear.

If we expand our focus to at-bats with runners on base instead of only in scoring position, other problems start to reveal themselves. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is hitting over .300 in those situations, but only has one extra-base hit. The sample is even smaller for Alejandro Kirk, but he was just 1-for-8 himself before hitting the IL.

Rival fanbases may scoff at this, and they're perfectly within their right because this happens to every team, but it is worth noting that the Blue Jays are especially banged up for how early it is in the season. Kirk's fractured thumb and Barger's ankle sprain have complicated matters, and that's just on the position player side. Cody Ponce suffered a regular season-ending ACL injury just 10 batters into his Jays debut, Max Scherzer is trying to pitch through forearm tendinitis, and virtually the entire team was rocked by a nasty flu bug last week. Bo Bichette's knee injury last September was the only major ailment suffered by a Toronto position player in 2025. Due to the circumstances, some players are punching a little above their weight in terms of playing time. Simultaneously, it's clear that this isn't the only problem.

I also want to talk about how the Jays have been doing with the bases loaded this year. I'll admit it was my main inspiration for this piece, because any time a team is on pace to enter the record books for something, it's worth following. After Tuesday night's defeat, the 2026 Toronto Blue Jays were 1-for-17 on the season with the bases loaded. That would be, by a country mile, the lowest batting average (.059) a team has ever had with the bases loaded in any season of the live-ball era. The 2020 Kansas City Royals (.122) currently bear this dubious distinction. For seasons that lasted a full 162 games, it's the 2012 Houston Astros (.130). If you look up what their record was that year, it's possible that your electronic device will spontaneously catch fire.

MLB's 10 worst bases-loaded offenses, live-ball era (Stathead)

Obviously, I doubt Toronto's .059 BA holds up, but it's an unsettling sign that things aren't going great in general. Last year's Blue Jays hit .386 with the bases loaded. That led the league, but as I mentioned before, noisy stats like this don't necessarily stand the test of time. Yet, their xBA of .324 with the bases loaded also led the league, suggesting that in a vacuum, it was no fluke. In 2025, this team was perfectly capable of focusing on the task at hand, not diverting from their approach, and putting together good at-bats with runners in scoring position.

In 2026, that has vanished into thin air. It's easier said than done, but whether it's a few hitters trying too hard or small-sample weirdness (likely a combination of both), it seems the offense is in need of a collective re-focus on what made them successful in the first place. It's one of the biggest tangible changes we can see so far between the two seasons, and a main culprit for their subpar performance out of the gate. They've got their work cut out for them now.

All stats entering play on April 8, 2026.

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[Jesse Burrill]

Just some more "fun" RISP stats to share: 

- Blue Jays tOPS+ with RISP is 87, 3rd worst in baseball. 
- zero HR with RISP
- 24 RBI with RISP 29th in baseball despite being 7th in ABs
- .241 xWOBA with RISP 29th in baseball
- 86.1 AV EV with RISP 30th in baseball 

[Spanky__99]

Now look at the Jays sample through April last season this was the norm early on last season as well, I'd panic if it keeps up, but I think a sizeable sample and we should be fine the regression is coming, no doubt.