The Blue Jays Have Lost Their Identity Early in 2026

[Jesse Burrill]

“This is not our brand of baseball.”

That was manager John Schneider’s message after the Blue Jays were shut out by the Chicago White Sox on Sunday, a loss that capped off a series sweep and dropped the Blue Jays to a 4-5 record. It marked the first time the team had been below .500 since May 28, 2025.

A 4-5 start (now 4-7)* isn't disastrous, but it feels underwhelming after three series against the A’s, Rockies, and White Sox, especially with the latter two teams having lost 100-plus games in 2025.

The concern isn't necessarily the results; it's how they’ve gotten there. Injuries have played a role, and the roster has changed, but the Blue Jays simply don't look like the team we’ve come to expect.

In 2025, the Blue Jays relied on their team chemistry, elite defense all around the diamond, and their ability to put the bat on the ball and put pressure on opponents' defenses to succeed. It's a formula that worked well, leading the team into the Fall Classic.

A large part of the success belongs to hitting coach David Popkins and his staff. They helped spark a resurgence from George Springer, breakout performances from Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho, and meaningful offensive contributions from the back half of their roster. They also had the Blue Jays swinging harder in the second half. A report from Eno Sarris of The Athletic noted that every Blue Jay was swinging harder in the second half of the season (aside from Andrés Giménez) and that number carried over into the postseason.

Elite contact ability, combined with the intent to swing hard at hittable pitches, drove the Blue Jays’ success in 2025.

Fast forward to 2026, and that identity is starting to slip. Their contact rate is stable, but take a look at how their fast-swing rate compares between the second half of 2025 and where we are in 2026:

Fast-Swing Rate
2025: 29.1%
2026: 25.8%

The situation only gets worse when you look at what pitches they're swinging the bat at. As a team, the Blue Jays have been swinging too much at pitches out of the zone. Their out-of-zone swing rate (per SIS) has climbed from 33.2% in the second half of 2025 to 36.5% so far in 2026. It doesn't matter how hard you swing when you're swinging at pitchers' pitches.

Every Blue Jay that has had extended playing time over the past three seasons has seen their chase rate rise in 2026. Regular small-sample caveats apply, but it's not an encouraging sign, especially when it's happening across the board.

Defensively, this team should be better than it was in 2025. Gone is Bo Bichette, who, according to Baseball Savant, ranked in the 4th percentile in fielding run value last season. He’s been replaced by Giménez at shortstop, who ranked in the 86th percentile in fielding run value in 2025. Ernie Clement has taken over at second, and Varsho remains in center field. The Blue Jays have won the team Gold Glove award in two of the past three seasons, and the good news is, they can do it again! Statcast's outs above average and fielding run value both have the Blue Jays ranked among the top five in the league early on.

The issue is that the team is still making its fair share of errors. Fielding percentage is a flawed stat in many ways because not all errors are created equal, yet it's still worth noting that the Blue Jays have posted a .978 fielding percentage, ranking 23rd in baseball.

Take Tyler Heineman, for example. He's stepped in as the Blue Jays' catcher after Alejandro Kirk left a game with a thumb injury, and made a bad throw that helped the White Sox push across a run and hand the Blue Jays another loss. The very next day, it was more of the same; the Blue Jays were down a run late, and another bad throw allowed the White Sox to add some insurance runs. The Jays couldn't catch up.

Speaking of catcher defense, the Blue Jays have had their issues throwing out baserunners. In 2025, they allowed 110 stolen bases, 16th-most in baseball, right in the middle of the pack. So far in 2026, Kirk has allowed 10 baserunners to steal, while Heineman has allowed three, and Valenzuela one. Those 14 stolen bases against are the second-highest in baseball so far.

Errors will happen, and just because they've happened early doesn’t mean they’ll continue. Still, that's not how the Blue Jays were built to play, and in the early part of the season, it's been costing them games. Right now, they aren’t being beaten; they're beating themselves.

The good news? It's April. A slow start isn't insurmountable, and one strong week can reset everything.

But if the Blue Jays want to get back on track, it starts with rediscovering their identity, controlling the zone, and swinging with intent. If that returns, so will the wins, and the Blue Jays will be back to playing their brand of baseball

Stats updated before games on April 7.

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