Bold Predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays' 2026 Season

[Jesse Burrill]

Bold predictions are always a tricky exercise. What feels bold to one person might seem completely reasonable to another.

Think back to last season. Predicting a career year for George Springer after a .674 OPS would have raised some eyebrows. Predicting a team that won just 74 games to go from worst-to-first and push a World Series to Game 7? That would have sounded even more unlikely.

That's the beauty of baseball: We can analyze rosters, project breakouts, and map out every potential storyline, but something unexpected is always going to happen, especially during (or after) a 162-game season.

For this exercise, we’ll use a definition inspired by Ben Clemens of FanGraphs: A bold prediction is something you know might not be likely to happen, but you believe has a better chance of happening than most people think.

Rather than keeping all the fun to myself, I asked the Jays Centre staff to share their own bold predictions for the 2026 season. The results were a great mix, including some Blue Jays taking home end-of-season hardware, dominant pitching performances, and prospect breakouts.

Let's dive in.

Michael Coyle: Kevin Gausman and Dylan Cease both throw over 200 IP and strike out over 200 batters.
We’ll start with a big one. The 200-inning threshold has decreased dramatically over the past few seasons, with just three pitchers reaching it in 2025. Chris Bassitt was the most recent Blue Jay to hit that number, doing so in 2023, and the last time the team had two pitchers do it in the same season was in 2014, when R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle each eclipsed that mark.

Both Gausman and Cease have come close to these numbers in the past, but neither has quite gotten there. In order for this to come true, both pitchers will need to be healthy all season and maintain at least one strikeout per inning; the latter is something that Gausman hasn’t quite done the past two seasons.

It's bold for a reason, but the Blue Jays' pitching staff would be in great shape if this one comes true.

Matthew Creally: Brendon Little will have a sub-2.50 ERA.
Little faded down the stretch last season to the point where he was barely used in the World Series; he was likely overworked and, frankly, had some of the worst command/control in the league.

But turning the page to 2026, he’s shown a new four-seamer in camp (touching as high as 98.1 mph), and the added depth in the bullpen will take some pressure off him. It's a bet on the stuff, which is probably a bit underrated. If he can make an improvement to his command, then he can shake off the rough postseason and be a true anchor out of the bullpen.

Mike LeSage: Kevin Gausman will finish second in Cy Young voting.
Most predictions would have a player ultimately winning the Cy Young Award, but predicting a second-place finish feels bolder in a way. Gausman has come close before. Back in 2023, he led the AL in strikeouts and finished third in the Cy Young race, behind Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray.

Since then, the strikeout numbers have dipped slightly, but he’s remained highly effective. For this to happen, Gausman will need to rediscover that strikeout form while continuing his run of durability as he enters his age-35 season. He’ll also need a bit of luck, with either Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, or any of the other elite AL arms taking a step back.

If there’s anyone who can thread that needle, Kevin Gausman is as good a pick as any.

Bryan Jaeger: Daulton Varsho finishes top three in AL MVP voting.
Varsho has changed his approach at the plate this spring, and it's paying off tremendously. He is letting the ball travel deeper and hitting the ball to all parts of the field. Letting the pitch travel more has also helped his plate vision. He's reduced his strikeouts from 28.4% last season to 7.4% this spring. Take spring training stats with a grain of salt, but it looks like he’s been making some cognitive changes with his approach. 

The center fielder has an astounding 1.246 OPS and .440 ISO over 54 plate appearances with five home runs, 12 runs, and 14 knocked in. He's doing all this while maintaining his ability to hit the ball hard. Varsho's 54.3 hard-hit% would be a career-high. Pair all this with his elite center field defence and smart baserunning, and you don’t have to squint too hard to see it all come together. The key to making this prediction come true is if he can stay healthy, which is a massive ask, but there is a real path to this becoming a reality.

Simon Li: Austin Cates jumps into the top 15 in the Blue Jays system.
Currently, Cates isn't ranked among Jays Centre's top 20 prospects, and he was outside of FanGraphs' top 40 Blue Jays prospects as well, but there is lots to like about the 22-year-old right-hander.

If you look at the pitch characteristics, he gets elite ride on the fastball (21+ inches of induced vertical break) and pairs it with a devastating splitter, a pitch the Blue Jays have used effectively over the past few seasons. He’ll still need to sharpen up the breaking ball, but if he can make progress with that offering, then he’s got a legitimate three-pitch mix.

Cates got the start in the Jay's Spring Breakout game this year and sat at 93 mph after showing increased velocity from the year prior. He’s a name to watch on the prospect side going forward.

Sam Charles: The Blue Jays will not win more than 80 games.
Not every bold prediction has to be optimistic. Sometimes, saying the unpopular answer may be the right one, all things considered.

You don’t have to look too hard to see how this could be possible. The Blue Jays' lineup isn't certain to just mash. Kazuma Okamoto could struggle in his first year against MLB pitching, Alejandro Kirk and George Springer could revert to their 2023/2024 stat lines, and the surprise performances from Nathan Lukes, Tyler Heineman, and Myles Straw could easily disappear. As always, injuries would be a factor here, too.

The pitching staff has lots of question marks as well. Three potential starters are already on the injured list. Dylan Cease has all the tools in the world but has had ERAs north of 4.50 in two of the last three seasons. It could happen again. The bullpen has several question marks, and on the whole, the Blue Jays' pitchers are getting old; only Trey Yesavage and Mason Fluharty are currently projected to be on the roster and under 25. Pair that with an AL East that got significantly better in the offseason, and one team is going to disappoint – and there is a chance it could be the Blue Jays.

Edward Eng: Jeff Hoffman figures out the home run issues and becomes the shutdown closer the Blue Jays need.
One of the many question marks surrounding the Blue Jays in 2026 will be Jeff Hoffman's performance. In 2025, he had stretches of dominance and stretches where he struggled with consistency. Consistency in the closer spot is paramount, and the Jays weren’t always getting that last season.

The home runs were always an issue; his 15 allowed were second in baseball by a reliever, and the HR/FB ratio of 20% was his worst since he was a starting pitcher in Coors Field. If he’s able to figure out how to keep the ball in the ballpark, then there is enough dominance in the arm that he can be a lock-down closer. That is going to be important if the Jays wish to remain on top of the division.

Leo Morgenstern: Two Blue Jays will make their first all star game this summer.
Dylan Cease (somehow) has never made an All-Star Game and seems to be a likely candidate to get there this summer, but what makes this bold is finding another one. Daulton Varsho is a prime candidate to get to the Midsummer Classic for the first time, but there is a path where Kazuma Okamoto, Addison Barger, Trey Yesavage, Cody Ponce, or Louis Varland end up there as well. Last season, the Blue Jays sent Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Alejandro Kirk to the All-Star Game, and with John Schneider set to manage the AL team in Philadelphia this year, having some extra Blue Jays on the roster is never a bad thing.

Owen Hill: José Berríos makes more starts than Max Scherzer.
This is a prediction about two things: Berríos' durability and Scherzer showing his age.

This prediction is certainly bold, as right now, Berríos isn't throwing and is dealing with elbow inflammation that will have him start the season on the IL. For his career, Berríos has been a model of consistency, even after an uneven 2025 season; his ability to log innings has been a strength.

Scherzer, on the other hand, has looked sharp in camp and is currently locked into the starting rotation, but there are always going to be durability concerns that come with a pitcher in his forties. While the upside remains, predicting a full, healthy season may be optimistic.

The Blue Jays are almost certain to use more than five starters over the course of the year, and the rotation in September is rarely the same as it is in March. This prediction comes down to trusting that Berríos will be available more often in the long run, even though that is not the case at the moment.

Bob Ritchie: Andrés Giménez steals 25+ bases and has a wRC+ above 114.
Both these numbers are something Giménez has accomplished before, but never in the same year. He reached the 25 stolen base mark in 2023 and 2024, and hit the wRC+ number in his All-Star 2022 campaign, but that feels like it's well in the rearview mirror. However, these numbers aren’t necessarily out of reach.

The stolen bases may be the hardest number to reach, as no Blue Jay even reached 20 last season, but Giménez has done it before and will be locked in as the everyday starting shortstop, so he could approach this number once again. If he does reach these numbers, he’ll join a list that in 2025 would have included names like Juan Soto, Corbin Carroll, and José Ramírez. 

Jesse Burrill: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will set the record for the hardest hit ball in the Statcast era
Personally, I have been rooting for this record for a long time. The current mark was set by Oneil Cruz just last season at 122.9 mph. Vladimir Guerrero Jr has come close before, with his best being 120.4 mph, also recorded last year.

Here’s why it could happen: Guerrero is entering his age-27 season, which is historically right in the heart of a player's prime. Pair that with the fact that several Blue Jays made noticeable improvements in bat speed during the second half of last season, and you’ve got a recipe for some serious ferocious exit velocities.

If everything clicks, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Guerrero claim the top spot.

Now, will any of these predictions actually come true? Probably not, but baseball has never been predictable. Over 162 games, the unexpected is inevitable, but that’s what makes it fun, and all that fun starts tonight at Rogers Centre.

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[Mike LeSage]

I'll add another one: this season Dave Stieb gets company as another Jays starter throws a no-hitter.

Gausman, obviously, is my pick to do it - but I'll hedge slightly.

[mphenhef]

I suggest we remove Sam Charles' credentials ;)

[Leo Morgenstern]

13 minutes ago, mphenhef said:

I suggest we remove Sam Charles' credentials ;)

Haha… I can’t say I like Sam’s prediction either. But — as much as I hate to say it — I think it is probably more realistic than some of the most optimistic predictions in this piece.

[mphenhef]

15 minutes ago, Leo Morgenstern said:

Haha… I can’t say I like Sam’s prediction either. But — as much as I hate to say it — I think it is probably more realistic than some of the most optimistic predictions in this piece.

Don't go throwing logic at me.  I just want to be upset at Sam :)  I kid in all of this.

[Jesse Burrill]

1 hour ago, Mike LeSage said:

I'll add another one: this season Dave Stieb gets company as another Jays starter throws a no-hitter.

Gausman, obviously, is my pick to do it - but I'll hedge slightly.

Lets go crazy, Eric Lauer has a Marco Estrada-esque outing and gets it done