One Thing Each Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Can Improve Upon in 2026

[Bryan Jaeger]

The Toronto Blue Jays have been aggressive this offseason to bolster their team in hopes of making another run at a World Series trip, but with a different outcome. The starting rotation was a focus after finishing last season ranked 20th in ERA (4.34), 17th in WHIP (1.27), and 14th in strikeouts (786). They made an early splash by signing the best free agent starter available, Dylan Cease. 

The team then followed that move by bringing Cody Ponce back to America after spending the last four seasons overseas. He's fresh off finishing as the KBO League MVP last season, posting a 17-1 record, 1.89 ERA, and a KBO single-season record of 252 strikeouts over 180 2/3 innings. Both additions join a rotation of familiar faces, with Shane Bieber exercising his player option to return and Max Scherzer recently re-signing. The only loss in the rotation was Chris Bassitt signing a free agency contract with AL East foe Baltimore Orioles. 

With most of the starting rotation still intact after finishing in the bottom half of most stats, each pitcher could make improvements to ensure better performance this season. It's unclear who will be in the rotation and if it'll start as a six-man rotation or the traditional five-man arsenal. There is still time for John Schneider to assess their performances and see if injuries play out. In the meantime, let's take a look at the possibilities and identify a tweak to improve each of their past performances.

This article was inspired by Randy Holt's piece about Cubs hitters on our sister site North Side Baseball.

Kevin Gausman: Efficiency

Kevin Gausman is a prototypical workhorse, throwing at least 170 innings in eight of the last 10 seasons. That amount of innings takes a significant toll on a pitcher, especially for a 35-year-old. One thing Gausman has struggled with is going deep into games. So he's throwing more pitches but failing to make it into the seventh inning. In his 32 starts last regular season, he pitched seven or more complete innings only 10 times. 

Even more alarming is that, over his 193 innings, he faced 775 batters. The number of batters is greater than the 748 batters two-time Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal faced over 195 1/3 innings. If Gausman wants to be considered among the elite pitchers, he needs to find a way to throw fewer pitches but more innings. With the Blue Jays' bullpen struggles last season, one way to ease the stress on the bullpen is to have your ace throw deeper into games. 

Dylan Cease: Control

The Blue Jays have paired one workhorse in Gausman with another. Cease has thrown 165 or more innings in each of the last five seasons. He's phenomenal at striking out batters, as he's the only pitcher with more than 200 strikeouts in each season over the same time span. 

However, he's been inconsistent in throwing strikes over his career. Last season, he finished in the 20th percentile in walk percentage, which he's only surpassed twice in his seven-year career. Despite his 9.8 walk percentage and 4.55 ERA last season, the righty had an expected ERA of 3.45. Meaning he pitched better than his ERA suggests by eliminating poor defense and poor luck. Cease brings an elite arm to Toronto, but fans should expect some inconsistency. 

Trey Yesavage: Workload Management

It's evident from Trey Yesavage's postseason performance that the Blue Jays have a young star in their midst. The important thing for him and the team is keeping him healthy. Last season was the first of Yesavage's professional career, where he threw 139 2/3 innings between the minors and MLB in the regular season and postseason. 

The 22-year-old will begin this season as the number three starter for the Blue Jays, but the team will need to monitor his workload. A midseason adjustment to Yesavage's pitching schedule could help lessen his workload, including skipping a start here and there or stretching out the days between starts.

José Berríos: Find Success the Third Time Through the Order

José Berríos's struggles last season came the further he pitched into a game. He posted a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings, facing the batting order for the first time. His ERA dipped to 3.52 over 61 1/3 innings during the second time through, then rose to 6.69 over 36 1/3 innings during the third time through. 

These struggles deeper into games have been a common occurrence for the 31-year-old over his career, but the discrepancy hasn't been as drastic as it was last season. Maybe that was due to the biceps tendon injury he suffered this time last season, but he pitched through. Obviously, a third time through the lineup, a pitcher won't be as sharp, but having a 3.17 difference in ERA from the second to third time through the lineup is too large to ignore. 

Berríos is healthy now and ready for a rebound season, but his role remains uncertain to start the season. His role will likely depend on how long Shane Bieber is unavailable and how Ponce is used.

Cody Ponce: Maintain KBO Success in MLB

To go from a career MLB ERA of 5.86 to achieving one of the greatest seasons a KBO pitcher has ever had, you'd need to tweak your pitches and mechanics. In 2021 with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Ponce's four-seam fastball averaged 93.2 mph. However, he raised that average to 95.5 mph and topped out at 98 last season.

With the increased velocity, the 31-year-old added a new kick changeup that ranges in the mid-to-high 80s. These two pitch adjustments round out a five-pitch arsenal that includes a cutter, slider, and curverball. Ponce was also able to increase his ground ball rate to 45.7 percent, which was a 5.3 percent increase from the last time he threw in MLB. He's slotted in as the number five starter, but he could also be useful coming out of the bullpen with the arsenal he throws. 

Eric Lauer: Leverage Breaking Balls With Two Strikes

Eric Lauer's flexibility was clutch for the Toronto Blue Jays' pitching staff last season. He posted a 3.77 ERA over 74 innings as a starter and a 1.76 ERA over 30 2/3 innings in relief. However, some of his success can be attributed to the increase in put-away percentage that he brought back over from a brief KBO stint in 2024. 

Lauer isn't a fireballer by any means; his fastball averages 91.7 mph, his curveball sits around the mid-70s, and his cutter, slider, and changeup range in the mid-80s. When you aren't a high-speed pitcher, you need to rely on your mechanics and off-speed movement to be deceptive and miss bats. 

In 2023, while with the Milwaukee Brewers, Lauer struck out 43 batters over 46 2/3 innings. He relied heavily on his four-seam fastball and cutter to miss bats. The lefty threw these pitches 78.5 percent of the time and had a 20 percent put-away rate for both pitches. 

Lauer's off-speed pitches are where his put-away percentage drastically fell, producing far below-average rates. His curveball put away batters at a 10 percent rate, his slider at a 5.7 percent rate, and his changeup at a 50 percent rate, but he only threw the pitch six times that season.

He struggled with the Pirates' and the Houston Astros' Triple-A teams in 2024, which led to a move to the KBO. While overseas, he leaned on his cutter less often (20.5 percent) and relied on his breaking balls to get his strikeouts. His curveball's put-away percentage jumped to 23.2 percent, and the slider increased to 24.3 percent. Both are drastic improvements over his 2023 production. Lauer also threw 128 more changeups, but surprisingly, his put-away percentage was only 2.2 percent. 

The increase in put-away stuff led to 102 strikeouts over 104 2/3 innings. Regardless of what role Lauer plays this season, he will need to continue leaning on his breaking balls late in counts to keep batters off balance and miss bats. 

Shane Bieber: Continue Developing the Changeup

The changeup had been an afterthought in Shane Bieber's five-pitch arsenal before the 2024 season. In his first six MLB seasons, he never threw the offspeed pitch more than nine percent of the time. During this period, he used the pitch primarily against left-handed batters because he could keep the ball hidden, and it dropped off the table due to its lower spin rate compared to his other pitches. Bieber threw the pitch 568 times to lefties compared to 43 times to righties. 

Last season, he started mixing in his changeup against batters on both sides of the plate more frequently (57 times to lefties and 26 times to righties). The increase in the pitch amount led to a 38.2 whiff percentage, his highest amount among all five pitches. His arm slot hides the ball from hitters, and the 1,396 spin rate makes the pitch drop as it reaches the plate. This rpm is drastically lower than Bieber's four-seam fastball (2,414 rpm) and the slider (2,611 rpm). 

Bieber is 30 years old, which means his velocity will start to decline, though he averages only 92.6 mph on his fastball. This suspected decline will force the righty to lean on his changeup more than 13 percent of the time. Bieber is dealing with forearm fatigue this offseason and won't start the season on the Opening Day roster. However, he's not expected to miss a significant amount of time. 

Max Scherzer: Bring the Mad Max Mentality Back

Let's be honest, when it comes to a 41-year-old pitcher, there really aren't any major improvements you can ask for. At this point in a player's career, fans can only ask for a glimpse of the player's successful self. Last season, he threw 85 innings but posted his worst career ERA (5.19). Despite the ERA increase, Scherzer's velocity remained in line with his 2017 level, the last time he won a Cy Young Award. 

The Blue Jays aren't expecting him to post Cy Young statistics; they only need him to stay healthy and give them innings when needed. It's uncertain what role Scherzer will have this season, but he can start games or join the bullpen. The Blue Jays will ease him into the season due to his age and the lack of urgency to use his arm.

One thing the three-time Cy Young Award winner can control is his fiery mentality. This passion can be contagious, giving the rest of the team a boost. That's about all you can expect from a guy who has been in the big leagues since 2008.

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