What Can the Blue Jays Expect From Max Scherzer?

The Toronto Blue Jays seemed to have their starting rotation set. Then they decided to bring back a familiar face from last season. Max Scherzer has reunited with the Blue Jays on a one-year, $3 million contract. The three-time Cy Young Award winner is returning for his 19th MLB season. The addition of Scherzer was likely made to replenish the depth that took a hit after the news that Bowden Francis underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery and Shane Bieber, dealing with forearm fatigue, would miss the start of the season. 

Scherzer had been the definition of a workhorse before the 2024 season, when injuries held him to only nine starts. Before that season, the righty had pitched a minimum of 145 innings in each season from 2009 through 2023 (excluding the shortened 2020 season). The injuries he sustained in 2024 were complications from an offseason surgery to repair a herniated disc in his lower back. He returned to the big leagues on June 23, but his eight starts before going back on the injury list were marred by shoulder fatigue. Mad Max would make one more start on September 14 before his season was shut down due to a hamstring injury.

Last season, he made one start to begin the season before he suffered a thumb injury that forced him to miss 75 games. He returned to the Blue Jays on June 30; however, he'd miss more time in July with the same injury. The injuries persisted, as back tightness forced Scherzer to take a step back in September.  

When the 41-year-old was healthy in 2025, he pitched 85 innings, posting an ERA above 4.00 for the first time since 2011. He finished last season with a 5.19 ERA and an 82:23 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The struggles and late-season injuries forced the Blue Jays to hold him out of the ALDS, though the emergence of Trey Yesavage helped ease that decision. However, Scherzer came up clutch in the ALCS, pitching 5 2/3 innings of two-run ball in Game 4, which evened the series against the Seattle Mariners. 

Scherzer's offseason has been focused on getting healthy. He received interest from a few other teams, but his daughter's wish came true regarding his eventual destination. With a 10-out-of-10 rating on the cuteness scale, his eight-year-old daughter wrote a letter to the Blue Jays in December asking them to re-sign her daddy. She has a strong future if she decides to become a sports agent. In her letter, she wrote:

"Dear Blue Jays,

I am so sorry that you didn't win the World Series. I hope that you win next time. I hope my dad is back on the team. My whole family loves spending time in Toronto with our dad. We loved the aquarium, CN Tower, and of course, the stadium.

I am looking forward to coming back next season.

Love,
Max Scherzer's daughter"

Although Scherzer signed for only $3 million, he can earn an additional $10 million in incentives based on the number of innings he throws. The incentive ladder begins with an extra $1 million for throwing 65 innings, and for every 10 additional innings thrown, he earns another $1 million. This ladder goes all the way to 155 innings, with that threshold being the last rung. Even a total salary of $13 million would be a discount if Scherzer can offer a glimpse of his Cy Young Award form. The major question regarding the righty is: If healthy, what expectations can Blue Jays fans have? 

Despite being 41, Scherzer hasn't lost velocity in his five-pitch arsenal; in fact, some of his pitches have gained speed compared to his 2023 season. Below is a table showing the difference in average pitch speed and BA against on his various pitches from the 2017 season, when he won the Cy Young Award; the 2023 season, when he last pitched 140 innings; and last season. 

These numbers, which come from Baseball Savant, show that Scherzer still has the stuff to be successful at a high level. However, his BAA in 2023 and again in 2025 was worse on most of his offerings, with the exceptions being his fastball and slider in 2025, which improved slightly compared to 2023. 

Considering his injury struggles over the last two seasons, it is a luxury for the Blue Jays that they can ease him back into the starting rotation. However, even when he's healthy, it’s possibly the righty may best serve the team by moving to the bullpen.

The Blue Jays look to have one of the best starting rotations among all MLB teams, with Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos, and Cody Ponce. Plus, they have Eric Lauer, who performed exceptionally well as a starter last season, waiting in the bullpen. As a starter in 2025, Lauer pitched 75 innings with a 3.77 ERA and a 74:18 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That said, he was far better as a reliever, posting a 1.76 ERA and 28:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 30 2/3 innings.

The team also has Bieber, who isn't expected to miss much of the season. The Scherzer addition may mean either Berríos or Lauer gets traded to free up space, or that Scherzer will be a long reliever when he’s ready to pitch. Regardless of how everything plays out, the Blue Jays hit this signing out of the park. It'll be interesting to see how manager John Schneider plays all his pieces. One thing is for certain: The Blue Jays reloaded well, and with the talent they have, they should be at the top of the standings all season long.