A Starting Pitching Option for the Blue Jays… in 2027

[Jim Scott]

In May 2022, Chad Green left a game against the Orioles with right arm discomfort. Three days later, he was undergoing Tommy John surgery, ending his 2022 season and likely limiting his use in 2023. As 2022 was his last arbitration year, he became a free agent at season's end.

In January 2023, Green signed an unusual deal with the Blue Jays. It called for $2.25 million in 2023 and a player option for $6.25 million in 2024. But it also granted the Jays two team options (exercisable under certain conditions): one for three years and $27 million, and one for two years and $21 million. The Jays ultimately ended up exercising the two-year, $21 million option.

Green only pitched 12 innings in 2023, so the Jays did not receive $2.25 million of value in that year. But that was expected. Green benefitted from this deal in that he received income in what could otherwise have been a year of unemployment, and (more importantly), as a member of the Jays organization, he had access to their training and medical facilities during his rehabilitation. The Jays benefited not in 2023, but from their option to keep him under contract for future years.

Toronto might be faced with a similar opportunity this offseason.

In 2021, his first year in the majors, Luis Garcia pitched 155 innings for Houston with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.1 fWAR. He finished second in Rookie of the Year voting (to Randy Arozarena of Tampa Bay) and was named to the Topps All-Rookie Team. He had a similarly strong 2022 but injured his arm in May 2023, requiring Tommy John surgery and ending his year. He missed all of 2024, and while he tried to come back in 2025, he experienced further issues. By October 2025, he was forced to have a second Tommy John procedure, meaning that he will likely miss all of the 2026 season. The Astros released Garcia in November, as his one remaining year of arbitration had no value to them with him recovering from surgery.

Even at his healthy best, Garcia is not an ace. But in his 2021-22 years, he had a 3.60 ERA, a 3.74 xERA, a 3.78 FIP and a 5.1 fWAR. That fWAR was 32nd among all pitchers. And Garcia would be pitching in 2027 in his age-30 year, so the potential to return to his 2021-22 form is very real.

Should the Jays pull a Chad Green on Garcia? In 2025, Garcia earned $1.875 million. Suppose Toronto offered him a similar amount for 2026, knowing it was unlikely that he could even make it back next year for a playoff run. But the 2026 guarantee would come with a team option – possibly something like the three-year, $27 million option Toronto offered to Green? Perhaps there would also be a one-year player option if the Jays declined their multi-year end of the deal.

As with Green, this would guarantee Garcia access to a top MLB medical and rehab staff for the duration of his recovery, and an income in what otherwise could be a barren year. The Jays would be gambling, but if Garcia does recover to anything close to his 2021-22 form, their option would be a bargain.

The Bottom Line
It seems that every offseason, the Jays (and most teams) are scrambling to fill their rotations for the upcoming year. Planning ahead by creating options could reduce that frenzy.

Yes, a deal like this one carries some (considerable?) risk, but as a famous baseball philosopher once said, “you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take."

View full article

[Terry Mesmer]

Back-to-back TJS? Pass.

[Jimcanuck]

50 minutes ago, Terry Mesmer said:

Back-to-back TJS? Pass.

Jameson Taillon has had 2 TJS and is a solid mid rotation guy.  Someone will sign Garcia, why not the Jays?

[Joltin Joe]

Green was pretty bad. I say no

[jmomcc]

I like this. Seems like a low risk, medium reward type of situation. 

edit: i guess the 40 man situation is a problem. He needs to go on there initially when he signs. But i don't know if that would be an issue. 

[Sasky05]

5 hours ago, Jimcanuck said:

Jameson Taillon has had 2 TJS and is a solid mid rotation guy.  Someone will sign Garcia, why not the Jays?

Because the Jays have plenty of better choices and are a big market team who acts like one now.

[Jimcanuck]

1 hour ago, Sasky05 said:

Because the Jays have plenty of better choices and are a big market team who acts like one now.

So you didn't read the OP, cool.

[Pendleton]

Curious to know, are there positive examples of these 1+1 rehab deals working out for a team? I suspect that Green would probably be a reasonable expectation for how those situations tend to go.