How Will the Blue Jays Handle Their Seven Arbitration-Eligible Players?

[Leo Morgenstern]

Last month, MLB Trade Rumors published their annual arbitration salary projections. These projections are highly accurate and, therefore, a fantastic tool for fans, media members, and even front office executives, as we all try to guess which arbitration-eligible players will be tendered contracts in the coming weeks and try to calculate how much payroll each team has to work with this winter. 

According to the estimates from RosterResource (which use MLBTR’s arbitration projections), the Blue Jays have about $48.4 million of luxury tax payroll and $39 million of actual payroll coming off the books at the end of the season. However, both of those numbers presume they will tender a contract to all of their eligible candidates. 

I know you probably want to keep wallowing in the World Series defeat, but the MLB offseason waits for no one. Free agents can start signing with new teams as of 5:00 pm on Thursday. That's also the deadline for teams and players to decide on contract options and for teams to extend qualifying offers. The non-tender deadline is a couple of weeks later, on November 21.

So, with an exciting offseason about to begin, let’s take a closer look at Toronto’s seven arbitration-eligible players and try to guess how GM Ross Atkins will handle each case.

Non-Tender
Dillon Tate – Arb 2
Projected Salary: $1.7 million

Dillon Tate signed a split contract with the Blue Jays last offseason, which meant the team had to pay him a prorated portion of his $1.4 million salary for the time he spent in the majors. Considering he only threw 6.1 innings for the big league club, collecting a fraction of that $1.4 million, there’s no chance the Jays are going to guarantee him seven figures for 2026. 

Tate pitched well at Triple-A Buffalo (2.06 ERA, 3.90 FIP in 39.1 IP), and the Blue Jays might be happy to have him back in the organization next year. Still, a non-tender is coming his way first.

Ryan Burr – Arb 1
Projected Salary: $800,000

Ryan Burr missed the first three months of 2025 with a shoulder injury. He returned to throw just two innings before surgery ended his season. 

The right-hander was a solid pickup for the Jays in 2024, tossing 32.2 low-leverage innings with a 4.13 ERA and a 3.56 xERA. There’s definitely upside here. At the same time, we’re talking about a pitcher in his early thirties with a 4.02 ERA and 0.3 FanGraphs WAR in 102 career games. Burr might be hard-pressed to land a guaranteed contract for 2026 even if he weren’t coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery.

Like Tate, I could see the Blue Jays bringing Burr back into the fold, but it won’t be through arbitration. 

On the Fence
Nick Sandlin – Arb 3
Projected Salary: $2.0 million

Andrés Giménez was the reason the Blue Jays sent Spencer Horwitz and Nick Mitchell to the Guardians last winter, but Nick Sandlin was more than a throw-in. Through four seasons with Cleveland, he pitched to a 3.27 ERA and 3.72 xERA in 209 appearances, striking 226 of the 806 batters he faced (27.7%).

Sandlin has always led his slider (which turned into more of a sweeper this year), but he upped his splitter usage in 2024 to great success. Unfortunately, a lat strain and an elbow injury limited the righty to 16.1 innings this past year, so we didn’t get to see what the Jays could get out of his arm in a full season. It’s hard to predict whether or not they’ll tender him a contract this offseason because it depends on how healthy his elbow is. 

This is Sandlin’s third year of arb eligibility, but he’s a Super 2 player, so if the Jays tender him a contract for 2026, he will remain under team control through 2027. That could be what ultimately convinces the team to keep him around despite potential injury concerns. It also helps that he still has all his option years remaining; if he struggles next year, the Jays could send him down to Triple-A without taking him off the 40-man roster. 

Keep
Eric Lauer – Arb 3
Projected Salary: $4.4 million

The Blue Jays had a lot of heroes this season, but Eric Lauer might have been the very first. With Max Scherzer on the IL and Bowden Francis soon to join him, the back end of the rotation was a mess early in the year. Then came Lauer.

While he wasn’t even on the roster until April 30, Lauer was one of Toronto’s most important pitchers from May onward. Whether he was starting, piggybacking, or pitching in relief, the lefty was up for the task, pitching to a 3.77 ERA in 15 starts and a 1.76 ERA in 13 bullpen appearances. Overall, his 3.18 ERA was the lowest of anyone who started a game for the Blue Jays in 2025 (excluding openers). The team went 12-3 in his starts and 22-6 in all his regular season appearances.

For all that, the Blue Jays paid Lauer just under $1.8 million. While he’s sure to earn a raise in 2026, his projected $4.4 million salary is still a great deal for a lefty swingman who can toss 100-plus innings and keep his team in ballgames. 

Note: Some players who return to MLB from foreign leagues can negotiate clauses in their contracts that allow them to bypass the arbitration system and return to free agency when their guaranteed contract expires. Lauer doesn’t appear to be one of those players. That’s not entirely surprising. After all, it’s not like he had much bargaining power when he signed a minor league contract with Toronto last December. He hadn’t pitched in the majors since his ill-fated 2023, and he wasn’t especially successful in his short stint in the KBO either. So, the Jays will be rewarded for taking a chance on Lauer with an extra year of team control. 

Tyler Heineman – Arb 1
Projected Salary: $1 million

Tyler Heineman is a little late to the arbitration party, finally reaching his first arb year after his age-34 campaign. His projected $1 million salary wouldn’t be a huge raise over the league minimum figure he took home in 2025. Still, earning his first seven-figure deal would be a major accomplishment for Heineman, who played in parts of 13 minor league seasons and six MLB seasons with 10 different organizations to reach this point. 

The Blue Jays have no reason to hesitate to tender Heineman a contract after the season he gave them in 2025. He might not (read: will not) reproduce his 120 wRC+, but he’ll give his pitchers Alejandro Kirk-level defense whenever Kirk himself needs a day off. 

Ernie Clement – Arb 2
Projected Salary: $4.3 million

Ernie Clement was one of the game’s best utility players in 2025, hitting just well enough to let his glove do the talking wherever he played on the infield dirt. 

As I noted in my article about the Jays’ breakout players of the year, this may have felt like a breakout season for Clement, but in truth, he just expanded upon his 2024. In 185 games from 2024-25, he has compiled eye-popping defensive metrics at second base, third base, and shortstop with offensive numbers right around league average. Tendering him a contract is a no-brainer for Atkins and Co.

I considered putting Clement in the “Extend” category of this piece after the season he just had. However, he’ll turn 30 in March, and as a Super 2 player, he’s under team control through the 2028 campaign. As much as the fan in me would love to see him rewarded with an extension (especially after his postseason performance), I don’t think it’s in the cards. 

Extend
Daulton Varsho – Arb 3
Projected Salary: $9.7 million

MLBTR’s model is only projecting a modest salary bump for Varsho, who earned $8.2 million in 2025. That is presumably because of all the time he missed with injuries; rehab from shoulder surgery kept him out for the first month of the season, and a hamstring strain cost him another two months mid-year.  

Yet, in the 71 games he was able to play, Varsho looked better than ever.

Stat	Career Average, 2020-24	Previous Career High	2025
wRC+	96	106 (2022)	123
xwOBA	.293	.323 (2021)	.341

The center fielder combined his typically top-notch defense (9 OAA, 6 FRV, 10 DRS) with truly terrifying power. Only seven hitters who took as many as 50 plate appearances in 2025 had a higher isolated power than Varsho, and that list is a who’s who of the game’s best sluggers:

• Aaron Judge, .357
• Cal Raleigh, .342
• Shohei Ohtani, .340
• Nick Kurtz, .329
• Kyle Schwarber, .323
• Giancarlo Stanton, .321
• Daulton Varsho, .310

I don’t need to waste any words explaining why the Blue Jays should tender Varsho a contract. It’s obvious. So obvious, in fact, that Atkins needs to think beyond retaining Varsho for 2026. The Gold Glover is set to reach free agency after next season, and the Jays don’t have an obvious internal replacement. 

Extending Varsho won’t be at the top of the to-do list this winter. Re-signing Bo Bichette and adding some pitching should come first. But I’ll be surprised if Opening Day rolls around and Varsho is only under contract for one more year.

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[jmomcc]

With clement, a guy who hasn't made much money, could you offer him something like 3/18 and buy out his arb years? 

[Leo Morgenstern]

I just don't think the Jays have much incentive to do that. The arb system tends to undervalue players like Clement, so the Jays can just keep bringing him back on below-market-value contracts for the next three seasons without having to lock themselves into a longer commitment. 

[SeranthonySantander]

38 minutes ago, Leo Morgenstern said:

I just don't think the Jays have much incentive to do that. The arb system tends to undervalue players like Clement, so the Jays can just keep bringing him back on below-market-value contracts for the next three seasons without having to lock themselves into a longer commitment. 

What’s the incentive for Red Sox and orioles to give guys like Roman A and Basallo whatever deals they got, like 8 years?  Is that just a thing for the poverty teams like sox and orioles or because arb ends up paying well for guys with good counting stat numbers but lower WAR?

[Leo Morgenstern]

3 hours ago, SeranthonySantander said:

What’s the incentive for Red Sox and orioles to give guys like Roman A and Basallo whatever deals they got, like 8 years?  Is that just a thing for the poverty teams like sox and orioles or because arb ends up paying well for guys with good counting stat numbers but lower WAR?

The primary incentive is extending them beyond their arbitration years. The Red Sox and O's now have three more years of club control over Anthony and Basallo than they otherwise would have.

The Jays could do the same with Ernie, but he'll be entering his age-33 season by the time he reaches free agency, and as much as I love him, I'm doubtful they want to commit guaranteed money to a utility player in his mid-thirties so far in advance. 

The arbitration system also undervalues players who provide more of their value on defense. And raises are always based on a player's arb number from the previous season. So if a guy isn't a star in his first arb year (like Ernie), he's probably never going to make a ton in arbitration. Even if he doubles his arb salary in 2027, that's still only $9 million. Whereas someone like Roman Anthony could be earning upwards of $20 million by his third arb year. 

[John_Havok]

On 11/3/2025 at 4:46 PM, SeranthonySantander said:

What’s the incentive for Red Sox and orioles to give guys like Roman A and Basallo whatever deals they got, like 8 years?  Is that just a thing for the poverty teams like sox and orioles or because arb ends up paying well for guys with good counting stat numbers but lower WAR?

Basically, yes. HRs, batting average, runs, RBI, and winning awards or placing in the top 2 or 3 of awards cause massive jumps in arb numbers, and when your first arb deal is higher than most other 1st arb deals, everything builds on that first deal even if your numbers slow down a bit.

See Vlad Guerrero Jr as the poster child for this

[Eat My Shatkins]

I would love it if the Jays could get Varsho extended. Would solidify the middle of the diamond for multiple years with Giminez at SS, Clement at 2B, Kirk at C and Varsho in CF.

 

Even better if they can lock down Bo with the agreement he moves to 2B. While he obviously isn't the defensive player Clement is, I think he'd be an above average 2B with the 130 wRC+ bat.

[Buster]

If Bo signs and goes to 2nd, I assume that Clement would become the full time 3B?

[Eat My Shatkins]

2 minutes ago, Buster said:

If Bo signs and goes to 2nd, I assume that Clement would become the full time 3B?

Most likely, and with Barger getting some reps at 3B but mostly in RF.