Article: The Final Month of the Season Will Be Must-Watch TV in the AL East

[Bryan Jaeger]

The Toronto Blue Jays hold a 2.5-game lead in the AL East following their loss against the Cincinnati Reds in Monday's series opener. However, despite sitting atop the division, the Blue Jays have gone just 5-5 in their last 10 games. As a result, they've seen their lead over the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees shrink; each is 7-3 in that same span.

The Blue Jays have 24 games remaining. A closer look at their remaining schedule reveals key matchups that will significantly impact the AL East title race. They entered September with the 11th-strongest remaining schedule (according to Tankathon), featuring three-game series against five different teams still competing for a postseason spot: the Reds, Red Sox, Yankees, Houston Astros, and Kansas City Royals.

The Blue Jays have begun their series with the Reds, and later this week, they will travel to face the Yankees. The starting rotation was originally set up quite favorably for the Yankees series, with Chris Bassitt, José Berríos, and Eric Lauer projected to face the Reds, setting up Toronto's top three pitchers from August to take on their division rivals. Yet, with the news that Lauer is returning to the bullpen, Shane Bieber is now expected to start the series finale in Cincinnati, setting up Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer, and Bassitt to start the games in the Bronx.

Returning from Tommy John surgery, Bieber has looked sharp. ESPN's Buster Olney said after Bieber's first start that the Blue Jays may have made "the best deal made by any team in the sport" (video linked below). If Bieber continues to show the skills he possessed earlier in his career, then the Blue Jays added another formidable pitcher to a starting rotation that showed signs of flourishing in August.

Also in the video linked below, ESPN statistician Paul Hembekides highlighted five statistics to show that the 30-year-old looked the best he has in years: In his first start back, Bieber (1) posted the best Location+ grade (124) from any start of his entire eight-year career; (2) averaged the fastest velocity on his four-seam fastball (92.7 mph) since August 2022; (3) averaged the fastest velocity on his cutter (88.2 mph) since May 2022; (4) averaged the highest RPM on his breaking balls (2,624) since April 2021; and (5) averaged 35 inches of drop on his changeup, a career high.

 

Bieber pitched well again in his second outing, and over two starts, the 30-year-old has posted a 2.38 ERA with a 16:4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Two of his three earned runs have come via solo homers. His command has been pinpoint, and the Blue Jays will hope this level of production continues for the rest of the season. However, it won't be on display in the Yankees series.

Instead, Gausman is slated to start the opening game of the series against Cam Schlittler. In August, Gausman threw 38 innings, posting a 3.55 ERA and a 35:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 34-year-old allowed two or fewer runs in four of his six August starts. Notably, two of those games came against NL Central rivals — teams currently battling for the division crown, the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers — and he produced a combined 11:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in those starts. Clearly, he's been performing strongly down the stretch against quality competition.

The second game of the Yankees series will see Scherzer take on Luis Gil. Nearly unhittable in his first five August starts, Scherzer threw 31 innings with a 2.61 ERA and a 22:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The 41-year-old delivered four quality starts in those five games. He allowed just two earned runs in six innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers and just one earned run in six or more frames against each of the Kansas City Royals, Chicago Cubs, and Pittsburgh Pirates. He struggled somewhat in his final start of the month, only lasting four innings against the Brewers and giving up two home runs. Still, that one outing aside, his performance this past month was highly encouraging.

The pivotal finale on Sunday will see Bassitt face Max Fried. Bassitt ended July on a rough note but bounced back in August, pitching to a 3.67 ERA with a 27:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts. He looked especially sharp yesterday against the Reds, notching a quality start with six innings of two-run ball. 

This series against New York is a must-win for Toronto. Not only are the Yankees hot on the Jays' tails, but the Yankees entered September with the 10th-easiest remaining schedule (per Tankathon). Their final weeks feature games against the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox, as well as two series against the Baltimore Orioles – all teams with a record under .500. That said, before those games, the Yankees will take on several division leaders, including the Astros, Blue Jays, and Detroit Tigers. They'll also play a key three-game series against the Red Sox.

The Yankees are likely the biggest threat to the Blue Jays holding onto the AL East. The Red Sox entered September with the eighth-strongest remaining schedule (per Tankathon), including upcoming series against the Tigers, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Cleveland Guardians, making their path more challenging. The September 12-14 weekend series between the Yankees and Red Sox could be beneficial to the Blue Jays, who play the Orioles that weekend.

The Blue Jays trail the Tigers by half a game for the best record in the American League. The Tigers entered September with Tankathon's eighth-easiest remaining schedule, but they still must face both the Red Sox and Yankees, as well as the New York Mets. They also have two series against their division rivals, the Guardians. The tough series against the Red Sox and Yankees could benefit the Blue Jays in the standings if the Jays can win while their rivals play each other. The Tigers play the Yankees from September 9-11 and the Red Sox from September 26-28, the final three games of the season.

No matter which team you support, September promises to be stressful. Still, for the Blue Jays, opportunities to secure their fate lie in each matchup versus teams vying for a postseason berth. Additionally, teams fighting for a postseason berth could beat up on one another, offering the Blue Jays indirect advantages.

If the Blue Jays manage to secure a Wild Card Round bye, their starting rotation will be perfectly set for the ALDS. 

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