Bieber’s Arrival Transforms Blue Jays Rotation Into Formidable Force for ALDS

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After a narrow series win over the Miami Marlins, the Toronto Blue Jays still top the AL East, comfortably ahead of the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. The AL Central's likely winner, the Detroit Tigers, have the AL's best record. However, the Blue Jays are currently leading the Houston Astros for the No. 2 seed, which would still earn them a first-round bye.

Although the Blue Jays have more than a month of games left to play against tough opponents like the Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Cincinnati Reds, and Kansas City Royals, I'm going to take a look at what Toronto's starting rotation could look like in the ALDS. Currently, the rotation includes Kevin Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Eric Lauer, and the newly added Shane Bieber.

Prior to games on August 25, the Blue Jays' rotation ranked 19th in MLB in ERA (4.32), making this a good time to add Bieber to the mix. The 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner was acquired from the Cleveland Guardians for prospect Khal Stephen at the trade deadline. Bieber made two starts in 2024 before suffering an injury that required Tommy John surgery. In his MLB return Friday, he threw six innings, gave up two hits, and recorded nine strikeouts on 87 pitches. He looked sharp, throwing 55 strikes, with the only run coming on a second-inning Javier Sanoja homer. Continued quality starts from the righty would make the trade a clear success, adding a potential number one starter to a World Series contender.

The Blue Jays' rotation is a veteran group, with each pitcher in their thirties or, in Scherzer's case, early forties. To keep them healthy, the team is using a six-man rotation, at least temporarily, which will help manage the workload for Gausman, Berríos, and Bassitt, who have all thrown over 140 innings this season.

Lauer, who joined the rotation mid-season due to injuries, has pitched 88 innings — more than he threw in 2023 and '24 combined (between MLB and the KBO). In 2022, he threw a career-high 158 2/3 innings, so he should be able to handle the workload ahead of him. The lefty has been outstanding, posting a 3.25 ERA as a starter and a 0.96 ERA in relief. If he continues to pitch like this, manager John Schneider will have a tough decision to make regarding Lauer's role in the postseason. He has earned a start.

Currently, the projected ALDS rotation for the Blue Jays looks to feature Gausman in Game 1 and Berríos in Game 2. If Bieber maintains his health and effectiveness, he would slot in as the Game 3 starter, although he could swap spots with Berríos. For a potential Game 4, Scherzer is the leading option due to his strong August performance (1.80 ERA), but his role could depend on matchups and his form in September. Lauer is another viable candidate for either a starting role or a bullpen job, depending on team needs. Bassitt, meanwhile, appears more likely to serve as a long reliever, or he could be left off the series roster entirely, depending on the final roster construction and Toronto's opponent.

Schneider currently has a good problem: too many quality starting pitchers. While Lauer has joked, "I'm glad I'm not the one making the decisions," these difficult choices exemplify the team's depth. With this rotation's talent and flexibility, the Blue Jays are legitimate World Series contenders, ready to capitalize on their depth and veteran experience to seize the moment this postseason.

Stats updated prior to games on August 25.

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