Article: How Will Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland Impact the Blue Jays’ Bullpen?

[Bob Ritchie]

Before the July 31 trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays acquired two relievers, Seranthony Domínguez and Louis Varland. The additions were needed because the Blue Jays’ bullpen, as I showed in Table 4 of the article, Trade Deadline Options to Bolster the Blue Jays’ Bullpen, lagged the xERA performance levels of the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees. The question to answer is whether Toronto bolstered the bullpen enough?

I divided this article into three sections:

• A Domínguez and Varland overview
• How do Domínguez and Varland change the profile of Toronto’s bullpen?
• Did Toronto bolster the bullpen enough?

A Domínguez and Varland Overview
Domínguez, who was born in the Dominican Republic, was signed by the Phillies in 2018. He is a 30-year-old reliever with seven years of MLB experience. Concerning career leverage situations, 311 (26%) of the 1,211 batters faced were in high-leverage outings, and 425 (35%) were medium-leverage. By comparison, David Bednar, the newly acquired Yankee, has faced 415 (34%) batters in high-leverage situations and 323 (26%) in medium-leverage outings. Domínguez has had postseason success, particularly in Philadelphia’s 2022 run to a World Series appearance with a 1.69 ERA, 0.02 FIP and a 0.32 WPA in 10 2/3 innings. Overall, his postseason record in 17 2/3 innings is a 1.02 ERA, 0.78 FIP and a 0.60 WPA. He will be a free agent after the 2025 season.

Varland, who was born in St. Paul, Minnesota, was drafted by the Twins in the 15th round of MLB’s 2019 June Amateur Draft. In 2022, at the age of 24, he made his MLB debut as a starter. In 2023 and 2024, Minnesota used him as a starter (17 outings) and a reliever (16 appearances), which summed to 117 2/3 innings. This season, he has appeared in 52 games (50 innings) as a reliever only. Varland is under team control until 2031. As a reliever, in his career, 18% of the batters faced by Varland occurred in high-leverage situations and 38% in medium-leverage outings. In 2025, Varland has been most frequently in medium-leverage outings (41% of batters faced) and low-leverage situations (38%). 

Enough of the verbiage, it's table time!

Table 1 shows pitch data of Domínguez and Varland. The highlights are as follows:

• Domínguez has a five-pitch arsenal with the four-seam fastball as his primary offering (43%).
• When facing right-handed batters, 93% of his pitches are the four-seamer, sweeper, and sinker.
• Against left-handed hitters, 94% of his offerings consist of the four-seam fastball, splitter, and curveball.
• His fastball velocity is in the 94th percentile.
• Like Domínguez, Varland has a five-pitch arsenal, highlighted by the four-seam fastball (45%) and knuckle curve (38%).
• Against right-handed batters, Varland makes more use of his sinker and slider than he does versus left-handed hitters. When he faces lefties, Varland mixes in his changeup.
• Varland’s Pitching+ metrics are outstanding. For a description of Pitching+, please refer to FanGraphs.
• Overall, his pitches have a 116 Pitching+ score, which ranks #27 of 451 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched. That 116 mark is tied with Paul Skenes. In other words, Varland has electric stuff that he locates well.

Table 2 shows a sample of other key metrics for Domínguez and Varland. The vital stats are as follows:

• Domínguez is a strikeout pitcher, as evidenced by his 32.0 K%, with an elevated 13.3 BB%.
• Varland has a strikeout rate a tick better than average but a much-better-than-average BB% (76th percentile ranking).
• Both relievers have performed well in high-leverage situations, but Domínguez has excelled.
• Concerning batter handedness, the two pitchers have slightly elevated xwOBA scores when facing left-handed batters, which may present matchup challenges for Manager John Schneider.

How Do Domínguez and Varland Change the Profile of Toronto’s Bullpen?
Table 3 has the answers!

The “Toronto’s bullpen before Domínguez and Varland” descriptor refers to the Blue Jays’ overall bullpen metrics as of July 30, 2025. With Toronto’s acquisition of Domínguez and Varland, and compared to the average of the Garcia and Green numbers, the profile of the Blue Jays’ reliever corps should, based on the average of the 2025 Domínguez and Varland data to date, change as follows:

• Lower HR/9, BB%, Barrel% and Location+ scores.
• Higher GB%, K%, K%-BB%, Whiff%, Stuff+, and Pitching+ numbers.
• Additionally, as noted in Table 1, the four-seam fastball average velocities of Domínguez and Varland are 97.7 mph and 98.1 mph, respectively. For the season to date, the average four-seam velocity of Toronto’s bullpen is 95.0 mph.
• Concerning the sinker, Toronto’s average velocity is 93.4 mph. The corresponding velocities of Domínguez and Varland are 97.9 mph and 96.9 mph, respectively.

In summary, Toronto’s acquisition of Domínguez and Varland has altered the bullpen’s profile. The changes to be witnessed include more strikeouts, swing-and-miss and velocity, and fewer home runs.

Did Toronto Bolster the Bullpen Enough?
By the trade deadline, the New York Yankees added Bednar, Jake Bird, and Camilo Doval to its bullpen. Bednar (85th xERA percentile ranking) would have been a good acquisition for Toronto. However, MLB observers have opined that New York’s bullpen is now so much better than Toronto’s. I disagree, and I have a table to support my position!

I constructed Table 4 as follows. First, for each team shown, I ranked their top eight relievers by innings (from most to fewest). So that you know, the xERA and WPA percentile rankings presented are the equally weighted average of the percentile rankings of the eight relievers. For example, I calculated the simple average of the xERA percentile rankings of Houston's eight relievers, which is 76. Second, I determined the impact of trade acquisitions upon a team’s bullpen by dropping the relievers with the lowest xERA percentile rankings and adding each acquisition's xERA and WPA percentile rankings. The total of eight relievers per team was maintained. In the case of Toronto, I included the xERA and WPA percentile rankings of Domínguez and Varland and eliminated Yimi Garcia and Chad Green. For New York, I dropped the three relievers with the lowest xERA percentile rankings and added the xERA and WPA percentile rankings of Bednar, Bird, and Doval. Please note that I have updated the Detroit, Houston and Boston post-deadline numbers. However, because my focus is on the Toronto-New York comparison, this article does not contain the details of the Detroit and Boston trade deadline acquisitions. Also, for the record, Houston did not make a deadline trade for a reliever.

Table 4 shows that Toronto’s deadline bullpen additions (and deletions) were more impactful than New York’s. In terms of average xERA percentile rankings, the Blue Jays boosted its bullpen xERA from 59 to 72 (a 13-point delta). The Yankees enhanced their bullpen’s average xERA percentile rankings from 65 to 74 (a nine-point change). Concerning the average WPA percentile rankings, Toronto and New York added 11 percentile ranking points by the trade deadline. Overall, based on the revised average of the xERA and WPA percentile rankings, Toronto's bullpen is slightly better than New York's (74 versus 71).

"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."
— Yogi Berra

As always, Yogi is correct. We do not know how the incumbents and new relievers of any team’s bullpen will perform for the balance of the 2025 regular season or the postseason. However, MLB observers have overlooked how good Domínguez and Varland have performed this season. These two relievers should boost the performance level of Toronto’s bullpen. Additionally, if Garcia can get healthy and improve upon his 91 Location+ score (well below his 105-career mark before 2025), the Blue Jays’ reliever corps will be even better.

The Last Word
The Toronto Blue Jays bolstered their bullpen with the acquisitions of Domínguez and Varland. These two relievers should have a positive impact on Toronto’s bullpen performance metrics, including better HR/9, GB% and K% numbers. Furthermore, from an xERA and WPA perspective, the Domínguez and Varland additions have put Toronto’s reliever corps on par, if not slightly better, with New York, a ballclub close to Toronto in the American League East standings. Now, we wait to see the balance of the 2025 campaign unfold!

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[Terry Mesmer]

> Domínguez and Varland additions have put Toronto’s reliever corps on par, if not slightly better, with New York, a ballclub close to Toronto in the American League East standings

Agree. I posted this elsewhere a few hours after the deadline, before their Friday implosion:

I heard ridiculous talk of the Yankees now having a bullpen full of closers. About that...

David Bednar: 5.77 ERA in 2024, terrible barrel rates this season
Jake Bird: 13.20 ERA since June 13 (same day Yankees collapse started!)
Camilo Doval: 5.32 ERA since June 1
Luke Weaver: 6.60 ERA since return from IL on June 20
Devin Williams: 5.73 ERA in July