Trade Deadline Reliever Options To Bolster The Blue Jays’ Bullpen

MLB’s July 31 trade deadline is fast approaching, and the pace of rumours is increasing. Concerning the Toronto Blue Jays, speculation among MLB observers includes the team’s acquisition of a starting pitcher, a right-handed power bat, and bullpen arms. I addressed the starting pitcher topic in my article, The Blue Jays' Top Three Starters Need A Boost At The Trade Deadline: Here Are Options. Now, to turn the focus on bullpen arms.

For my analysis, the two key metrics are xERA and WPA. xERA is a good metric to judge a reliever’s performance because it considers the quality of batted-ball contact, strikeouts, walks, and hit-by-pitches, which are elements over which a reliever has a significant degree of influence. WPA is particularly informative regarding a reliever’s performance because it measures the reliever’s impact on winning. In the words of FanGraphs, WPA “doesn’t tell you how well a player performed, it tells you how important their performance was.”

On the surface, Toronto’s bullpen does not need a boost. Among American League teams, Toronto is tied with Boston with the second-best xERA, and the Blue Jays’ bullpen corps has the third-highest WPA and is number two in WPA/LI. However, there are issues to consider.

• As with all pitchers, there is the general risk of injury. Additionally, Yimi Garcia and Nick Sandlin have missed considerable time this season due to injury, including the present moment. Because Toronto’s bullpen depth has been taxed already, a bullpen arm or two could come in handy.
• Garcia and Chad Green have not pitched well in 2025. Their xERA percentile rankings are 21st and 10th, respectively.
• Mason Fluharty and Braydon Fisher have posted very good to excellent xERA marks (77th and 94th percentile, respectively). However, they are rookies with minimal MLB experience. Therefore, we may see some negative performance regression as teams adjust to these MLB newbies.

Therefore, it would be prudent for Toronto’s management to add quality, experienced relievers before the upcoming trade deadline. Jays Centre’s Braden Ramsey provided the foundation for this article with his piece, 21 Late-Inning Relievers Who Could Be On The Move Before The MLB Trade Deadline. Accordingly, this article will examine those 21 relievers at a high level and then narrow the options down to three bullpen arms, each of whom would bolster Toronto’s bullpen. Let’s dig into the numbers. Consider Table 1 and Table 2.

I calculated the xERA, WPA, and WPA/LI percentiles for relievers who have pitched at least 10 innings in 2025 (326 relievers qualified). WPA/LI is informative because it allows the observer to compare two relievers who may not have the same number of high-leverage opportunities. However, to rank the relievers, I excluded WPA/LI and used the average of the xERA and WPA percentile values. The final step in constructing Table 1 was to allocate the 21 relievers into three tiers, with seven relievers in each tier. However, Seth Halvorsen and Kenley Jansen had identical scores of 63, so I moved Jansen into Tier 2.

Table 2 shows the xERA, WPA, and WPA/LI percentile rankings of Toronto’s relievers with at least 10 innings under their 2025 belt. 

Among other data points, Table 1 shows the trade values of the listed relievers. I use Baseball Trade Values as the source for player acquisition costs because it is an objective third-party with a good, yet not perfect, track record. Ultimately, the market determines a player’s trade value, and various factors influence that value, including demand and supply, trade deadline pressure, and different approaches to appraising players. For an explanation of how BTV values players, please refer to this and this.

Trade values are a crucial consideration in identifying trade targets. As shown in Table 3, Toronto has limited player capital to make trades. Suppose the Blue Jays acquired Emmanuel Clase. Toronto’s player capital would then be significantly constrained, and accordingly, the Blue Jays' ability to add other players (a starter, a position player, or another reliever) would be reduced.

Now, consider Table 4. To determine the hypothetical impact of reliever targets on Toronto’s bullpen, I arbitrarily selected relievers residing in the middle of Tiers 1, 2, and 3. Those pitchers were Clase, Pete Fairbanks, and Griffin Jax. I included Jax because he is a prominent name. However, none of the pitchers listed in Tier 3 excite me. Lastly, I held the number of Toronto’s relievers constant at eight and dropped the Blue Jay with the lowest xERA percentile ranking (Green) if one reliever was acquired. I eliminated Green and Garcia, who have Toronto’s two lowest xERA percentile rankings, if Management added two relievers.

Concerning Table 4, there are four observations to note:

• Individually, Clase, Fairbanks, and Jax would enhance Toronto’s bullpen xERA.
• The impact on WPA would be minimal, in the case of Clase and Fairbanks, and lessened with Jax in the pen.
• The xERA and xERA-WPA average value-added would be highest with Clase and Fairbanks.
• The BTVs of Clase and Jax are very high. Hence, if Toronto acquired either or both, Toronto’s player capital would be significantly depleted.

Given the high cost to acquire Clase and Jax, are there other reliever options? Yes, I present Table 5. Suppose Toronto considered Dennis Santana, Phil Maton, and David Bednar (“Scenario 2”) instead of Clase, Fairbanks, and Jax (“Scenario 1”). As Table 5 shows, the difference in the impact upon Toronto’s xERA under Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 is minimal. Additionally, the positive effect on WPA is more pronounced under Scenario 2 than under Scenario 1. For example, the Santana-Maton duo would outpace the Clase-Fairbanks combo (+10 versus +8). Furthermore, if BTV’s trade values are in line with the market, Toronto could achieve the desired xERA and WPA combo performance upgrades at a much lower acquisition cost under Scenario 2 than Scenario 1.

In summary, one of the key takeaways from Tables 4 and 5 is that Toronto can strengthen its bullpen by acquiring quality relievers at a relatively low cost in terms of player capital (see Scenario 2). 

Due to the poor 2025 performances of Garcia and Green, along with the other identified issues, Toronto would greatly benefit from acquiring two of Santana, Maton, and Bednar. Let’s take a closer look at these pitchers: Voila, Table 6. The highlights are as follows:

• The trio (Santana, Maton, and Bednar) has posted K%-BB% marks better than Toronto’s bullpen corps. Also, those K%-BB% scores are higher than Garcia’s and Green’s.
• In high and medium-leverage situations, the trio has better FIP numbers than Garcia and Green.
• Green’s 2.57 HR/9 is tied for sixth highest among the 326 relievers with a minimum of 10 innings pitched. Notably, the trio members have HR/9 rates better than Garcia's and Green's. As Jay Jaffe noted in his article,  No-Hitters Are Great, but the Long Ball Still Wins in October, “… in the postseason, home runs account for a higher percentage of runs than in the regular season.” Hence, by acquiring two of the trio members in trade, Toronto should lower its overall HR/9 rate, which would be a positive development. 
• Concerning GB%, St. Louis‘ infield has MLB’s highest OAA (25), and Pittsburgh’s infield ranks third best (19 OAA). Toronto’s infield slides in at number seven with an 11 OAA score. Therefore, although it is unlikely that Toronto’s infield will enhance the fortunes of the trio compared to the infields of their current teams, a higher GB% would alter the profile of Toronto’s bullpen, which is not a bad thing.
• In terms of batter handedness, the trio members have better xwOBA scores than Garcia and Green, whether against right-handed or left-handed hitters. In other words, any combination of Santana, Maton, or Bednar would not raise platoon-split issues for John Schneider.

A final matter to address is the potential 40-man and 26-man roster moves that would be required if Toronto adds one or more bullpen arms. The candidates for these roster moves are Green, Tommy Nance, and Justin Bruihl, all current members of Toronto’s bullpen. Also, if Garcia returns to form, there can still be a roster spot for him. Therefore, concerning roster moves, Toronto has options to make bullpen acquisitions work.

The Last Word
Toronto would benefit significantly if it acquired one or more quality relievers. Although there are prominent relievers on the market, including Clase and Jax, the cost to acquire them is exceptionally high. A lower-cost option would be for Toronto to target Santana, Maton, and Bednar. The player capital price for this trio should be less than the acquisitions of Clase and Jax would be, and Toronto would still markedly bolster its bullpen. Additionally, Toronto would have more resources remaining to make other acquisitions. Ross Atkins, make it happen!