Article: Braydon Fisher Stopped Walking Batters & Now He's One Of The Blue Jays' Most Valuable Relievers

[Simon Li]

In my first piece writing for Jays Centre, I highlighted a few Non-Roster Invitees who could possibly make an impact on the major league roster sometime this season, and Braydon Fisher was the first pitcher I mentioned. I’m not trying to pat myself on the back too hard, though, as although I thought Fisher could pitch some big-league innings, I didn’t expect him to be this effective. Other than the blow-up innings he pitched as an opener, Braydon Fisher has not given up a single earned run as a reliever for the Jays in 17 ⅓ innings pitched. Just last season, he was traded from the Dodgers for Cavan Biggio, and Fisher had a 6.60 ERA in Triple-A against worse hitters while walking 16.3% of the batters he faced. This season, his walk rate dropped to 8.5% in Triple-A, and then in the major leagues, it dropped even further to 4.3%. 

One of the most tangible differences about Fisher’s pitching compared to last season is that he’s just throwing harder. In Triple-A, his average fastball velocity was 93.8 mph; however, this season it has increased to 95.5 mph in MLB. Similarly, his slider velocity has increased by two mph, and his curveball velocity has increased by 3.7 mph, from 79.8 mph to 83.5 mph. The extra velocity has altered the movement profile of some of his pitches, resulting in a tighter break, which may explain some of the improved control. His fastball shape also changed slightly, as he increased the ride on it by 0.5 inches and reduced the run it had by an inch. Another interesting change about his arsenal is that he’s getting more extension on all of his pitches relative to when he was in Triple-A. This suggests that he’s being more direct to the plate, which not only helps him stay in the zone more but also explains a bit of the velo increase as he’s driving down the mound a little more effectively. 

Despite the increased stuff making his arsenal more effective, as hitters now have much less time to react to his fastball, which makes the split-second decision on whether a pitch is a breaking ball or not much harder, Fisher’s most impressive aspect of his game is now his command. His release point was lowered slightly by an inch, and it’s remarkably consistent, with all his pitches being released at the same point. His zone rate is now above average at 54.5%, representing a significant difference from his 50.5% zone rate when pitching against weaker competition in Triple-A. However, he’s not just throwing the pitch in the heart of the zone and hoping that hitters don’t time it up; he’s been excellent at peppering the edge of the zone, with 45.8% of his pitches being thrown there (via Statcast). FanGraphs’ Location+ and Pitching Bot Command both back up Fisher’s strong command of his pitches, as they have him at a 109 and a 59 grade, respectively. 

This forces hitters to swing because he’s always in the zone, but also generates a good amount of whiffs due to the location of those pitches, as evidenced by his 32.3% whiff rate and 34.4% chase rate. Hitters also struggle to square him up when they do make contact, as he has an 87.1 average exit velocity against and a 35% hard-hit rate given up. 

Fisher is also an example of more modern pitching philosophy, despite increasing his fastball velocity by a couple of ticks, the big righty has reduced the usage of his four-seamer, and instead increased the usage of his two better pitches, his slider which has a Stuff+ of 116 and his curveball with a 110 Stuff+. Fisher mostly throws his slider against righties, whereas he throws the curveball more against lefties. The results support this style of pitching, as his breaking balls have combined for five run value, whereas his fastball has been neutral. As hitters are getting better and better at dealing with higher velocities, pitchers must more effectively mix their pitches to prevent hitters from getting to the fastball. It helps when you can make Kyle Schwarber look silly like this: 

Fisher’s combination of strong command and increased velocity of his pitches allows him to be the second-best reliever for the Blue Jays. After a few years of little-to-no internally developed talent pitching in the Jays' bullpen, there are now a few that are helping anchor the Jays' pitching staff while the starting pitching has struggled. Fisher has mostly been used in lower leverage early in his career, but if he continues to pitch like this, John Schneider will have his hand forced to put Fisher in big spots. 

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[max silver]

I really hope that once Yimi Garcia is ready to return from the injured list that Fisher isn't optioned down to AAA. I'm sure it would be a tough decision for the club to essentially light the $10 million being paid to Chad Green on fire but the pen would take a massive loss demoting Fisher as I believe that he has arguably been their best reliever. He's been 6th in MLB in reliever FWAR since he debuted in early May and couldn't have possibly done more to prove he's deserving of a spot.

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

I really hope that once Yimi Garcia is ready to return from the injured list that Fisher isn't optioned down to AAA. I'm sure it would be a tough decision for the club to essentially light the $10 million being paid to Chad Green on fire but the pen would take a massive loss demoting Fisher as I believe that he has arguably been their best reliever. He's been 6th in MLB in reliever FWAR since he debuted in early May and couldn't have possibly done more to prove he's deserving of a spot.

It might take eating a massive chunk of salary, but someone might take him for a non-useless warm body for AAA filler or something. 

[max silver]

3 minutes ago, John_Havok said:

It might take eating a massive chunk of salary, but someone might take him for a non-useless warm body for AAA filler or something. 

Yeah hopefully that's possible but I would guess that opposing teams would simply wait for the Jays to DFA Green in order to pick him up essentially for free at league minimum. I had a look at his game logs and his stuff+ metrics have shot up in recent games, in a perfect world he's made some sort of adjustment and this is something that will hold up.

[John_Havok]

1 minute ago, max silver said:

Yeah hopefully that's possible but I would guess that opposing teams would simply wait for the Jays to DFA Green in order to pick him up essentially for free at league minimum. 

quite right, he's probably a sunk cost at this point.