Article: Reasons for (Cautious?) Optimism About the Blue Jays’ Bats

Jim Scott · May 1, 2025

The Jays' hitters have struggled so far in 2025. The team ranks 11th in the American league in wRC+, 14th in home runs, and 12th in runs scored. Not an auspicious beginning, and not the statistics of a playoff-bound team. But there is room for optimism that this hitting drought is temporary.

The X-Factor
The Statcast website calculates “expected” values for statistics such as batting average, weighted on-base average and slugging percentage. These “x-stats” attempt to remove the impact of chance from a player’s performance, leaving a value that would be expected had the player experienced average luck and defense.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is expected to be one of the strongest power hitters on the Jays (and in the league). But his current slash line (batting average/on-base/slugging) of .268/.362/.402 is well below these expectations. His x-stats tell another story, however, with an excellent line of .314/.399/.521. This is consistent with his outstanding 2024 season, when Vladdy had a line of .323/.398/.544. So, if his x-stats represent his “true” performance, they project a return to his 2024 production levels.

Bo Bichette is not a power hitter at the same level as Vladdy. But he has been an outstanding hitter for the early part of his career, leading the American League in hits in both 2021 and 2022. Bichette had an uncharacteristically poor year in 2024, with a .225/.264/.322 hitting line and a 71 wRC+. So far in 2025, Bichette has a .295/.328/.364 batting line – better than 2024, but still below major league average. But, like Vladdy, his x-stats tell a different story, with an excellent .333/.363/.505 line. Again, the x-stats project major improvement.

Like Vladdy and Bo, Addison Barger has had a slow start to 2025, with a .185/214/.296 stat line. But his x-stats also tell a more promising story, with an x-line of .285/311/.478. Not spectacular, but above major league average – not bad for a player who entered 2025 with fewer than 70 major league games under his belt

George Springer is one of the few Blue Jays who has had a strong start at the plate, with a .306/.406/.482 line so far in 2025 for a holy-cow-Batman 157 wRC+. But some fans have looked at his declining performance in recent years (133 wRC+ in 2022, 104 in 2023, 95 in 2024) and assumed that his current production is a mirage and he is due for major regression. Statcast would disagree. His x-stats line of .266/.366/.478 is below his current production, but his xwOBA still puts him among the top quartile of MLB hitters.

Spring Fever
Certain players are at their best early in the season, while others take time to get fully up to speed. A classic example is Anthony Santander. “Tony Taters” is a classic slow starter. In March and April, throughout his career, he has averaged a stat line of .204/.285/.360 for a wRC+ of 82. Not great. But in May (over 409 career plate appearances), he has averaged a .263/.337/.488 slash line with a 131 wRC+. And this improvement was not limited to singles. In the months of March and April, Santander has averaged one home run per 36 plate appearances. In May, that average is one home run in every 20 appearances.

Alejandro Kirk’s career is not as long as Santander’s, so the usual small sample size caveats apply even more. But his career March/April wRC+ is 88, compared to 121 in May, 141 (!) in June, and 110 in July.

A Run Saved Is a Run Earned
OK, so defense is not hitting. But if a run saved really is equal to a run earned, the Jays have upside here as well. In 2024, the top fielder in the majors in Outs Above Average was Andrés Giménez, with 21. Daulton Varsho was eighth with 16, and Bo Bichette was improving as a shortstop with 1. So far this year, Giménez only has 1 OAA, Bo has -3, and Varsho has only played two games. If these players can return to their 2024 levels, the Jays could “earn” many more runs.

The Bottom Line
No single statistic can accurately predict future performance. The Jays' hitting could take off in May and beyond … or it might never leave the ground. But past tendencies and x-stats are favourable – and at the very least, good excuses for optimism!

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