Article: AT LAST: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Remain with Blue Jays on 14-Year Deal Worth $500 Million

[Matt Trueblood]

There is joy in Mudville, after all, for Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro have not struck out.

In the greatest moment for Canadian baseball since the José Bautista bat flip, the Blue Jays struck a deal with cornerstone first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. overnight. As a new week tried to get its rest and gather itself to arrive, the old one flung its biggest bit of news forward. Just after midnight, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic broke the news that Guerrero and the Jays have agreed on a 14-year deal worth $500 million. The contract begins in 2026 and takes Guerrero through his age-40 season, in 2039.

This is a monumental achievement, and a watershed moment for the Jays. They've avoided the monthslong headache and public lament that could have come with allowing Guerrero to remain unsigned throughout the season. No longer will any of us have to think about whether or not the Jays might trade the face of their franchise, should they slip down the standings this summer. No longer will fans have to wonder whether any true superstar can be convinced to roll the dice on Canada on a long-term deal. This signing heals some of the wounds left by the team's failed attempts to land Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Roki Sasaki, and it could pave the way to a different, brighter future for the Jays as they court free agents.

Guerrero being willing to stay (at a perfectly reasonable per-year price just south of $36 million) is, in some ways, more exciting and more valuable than Ohtani or Soto being willing to come would have been. After years with the Jays, Guerrero is showing that he believes in what they're doing and loves the city. Playing with him—and the endorsement that he offered by accepting this deal—should help entice other stars. In the meantime, the deal ensures that the team's lineup will be anchored by the sturdy slugger for much of the next decade.

In a marketplace in which Soto just commanded $51 million, it's not at all unfair for Guerrero to receive an annual average value of $35.7 million. That clears the benchmark for elite hitters signing before hitting free agency, set by Mike Trout (12 years, $426.5 million, $35.5 million AAV) over half a decade ago. It's a lower number than Aaron Judge's $40 million AAV, but Judge signed that deal only after going all the way to free agency. Ditto the seven-year, $245-million deal signed by Anthony Rendon after the 2019 season and the two separate, shorter-term deals Carlos Correa has signed with the Minnesota Twins. Guerrero took a hometown discount, coming down toward the Jays' number after the two sides failed to find a deal during spring training. Yet, he got to the $500 million threshold he sought all along, without deferrals pushing the real value of the deal lower than that (as, for instance, Alex Bregman's nominal $40 million-AAV deal with the Red Sox is actually worth less than $33 million per year).

Though he's off to a sluggish start this season, Guerrero has one of the fastest swings and generates some of the hardest contact in baseball. He's twice been an elite slugger over a full season, and is looking to make his fifth straight All-Star team this summer. Without this uncertainty hanging over him, he can now focus on trying to carry the Jays to their first division title since 2016, and with this deal complete, the Jays can now fully commit themselves to building around Guerrero—for this year, and for over a decade to come.

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[Spanky99]

That is NOT a hometown discount, lmao... da fuq??? 😅