Article: Erik Swanson Dodges Serious Elbow Injury

[Bryan Jaeger]

Erik Swanson felt some elbow discomfort last week, but an MRI showed no structural damage. How long will the reliever be sidelined, and how will his absence affect the bullpen?

The Blue Jays got some encouraging news last week, as an MRI on reliever Erik Swanson's ailing right elbow revealed a median nerve entrapment, rather than structural damage. He received a cortisone shot and will be able to begin throwing in the next couple of days. With Opening Day on March 27, Swanson likely starts the season on the injured list. Nerve injuries are always tricky because there is no set timetable for a return, but the righty is not expected to miss an extended perid of time.

If Swanson does begin the season on the IL, the back end of the Blue Jays bullpen will feel his absence. Swanson struggled and got demoted during the first half of the 2024 season, but he was a completely different pitcher in the second half of the season, throwing 24 2/3 innings, posting a 2.55 ERA and holding opponents to a batting average of .172. Swanson was outstanding on the mound in 2022 and 2023, posting 1.68 and 2.97 ERAs, respectively. 

Although it's certainly due for some positive regression after being the worst unit in baseball in 2024, the Blue Jays bullpen looks to be a massive weakness. Free agent signees Jeff Hoffman and Yimi García are the only projected relievers who finished 2024 with ERA under 3.85. García and Chad Green will fill the set-up roles. The Blue Jays will need to hope that Swanson's stint on the IL is short and that when he returns, he's not the early 2024 version. If (or more realistically, when) the team loses a reliever with a longer-term injury, they won't have many great options to fill in. According to FanGraphs' depth charts, Toronto is projected to get just 2.4 WAR from its bullpen, which ranks 20th in baseball.

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[max silver]

All of Chad Green (3.21), Brendon Little (3.74), and Nick Sandlin (3.75) finished 2024 with ERAs below 3.85. 

[Orgfiller]

32 minutes ago, max silver said:

All of Chad Green (3.21), Brendon Little (3.74), and Nick Sandlin (3.75) finished 2024 with ERAs below 3.85. 

I have a feeling this was a typo and Bryan meant to say these are the only relievers projected to have an ERA under 3.85 to begin the season. Which is true except for the late inclusion of Lovelady on the 40-man and potentially the 26-man roster as well.

Shoutout to Ryan Burr's projections too.

#	Name	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	ERA	FIP	WAR
1	Jeff Hoffman	TOR	4	2	27	65	0	65.0	11.03	3.01	0.86	.283	77.1%		2.98	3.11	1.4
2	Ryan Burr	TOR	2	2	0	42	0	42.0	10.00	3.10	1.10	.292	76.1%		3.55	3.66	0.1
3	Yimi García	TOR	4	3	3	61	0	61.0	9.86	2.83	1.12	.287	73.7%		3.60	3.71	0.5
4	Richard Lovelady	TOR	5	4	0	55	0	55.0	8.03	2.63	0.95	.292	71.8%		3.76	3.79	0.1
5	Brendon Little	TOR	3	2	0	50	0	50.0	7.76	4.01	0.81	.295	73.0%		3.86	4.10	0.0
6	Josh Walker	TOR	2	1	0	35	0	35.0	9.05	3.72	1.06	.289	73.5%		3.91	4.02	0.0
7	Chad Green	TOR	5	4	4	63	0	63.0	8.61	2.72	1.30	.282	73.2%		3.94	4.12	0.2
8	Nick Sandlin	TOR	4	4	0	60	0	60.0	9.58	3.90	1.21	.281	73.5%		3.98	4.26	0.0
9	Erik Swanson	TOR	2	2	0	39	0	39.0	8.85	3.12	1.27	.288	74.0%		4.00	4.15	0.0
10	Nick Robertson	TOR	2	1	0	44	0	44.0	8.60	3.39	1.08	.292	72.4%		4.04	4.10	0.0
11	Mason Fluharty	TOR	1	1	0	22	0	22.0	8.45	3.43	1.18	.287	72.6%		4.14	4.30	0.0
12	Tommy Nance	TOR	3	3	0	59	0	59.0	8.01	3.21	1.13	.295	71.6%		4.16	4.26	0.0
13	Dillon Tate	TOR	1	1	0	32	0	32.0	6.75	2.85	0.94	.293	69.2%		4.17	4.23	0.0
14	Zach Pop	TOR	3	3	0	56	0	56.0	7.09	3.26	0.99	.294	70.1%		4.28	4.28	0.0
15	Angel Bastardo	TOR	1	1	0	15	0	15.0	7.99	3.74	1.21	.287	71.9%		4.28	4.49	0.0
16	Easton Lucas	TOR	1	1	0	26	0	26.0	7.92	3.72	1.17	.288	71.7%		4.31	4.47	0.0
17	Ryan Yarbrough	TOR	1	1	0	24	0	24.0	6.68	2.41	1.30	.286	70.2%		4.35	4.62	0.0
18	Braydon Fisher	TOR	1	1	0	18	0	18.0	8.90	4.85	1.17	.289	72.3%		4.50	4.65	0.0

[BB17]

The pitching does kind of scare me. The depth looks pretty bad and we already have seen a few injuries so far. If Hoffman or Garcia go down it looks really bleak and the bullpen again looks like one of the worst in baseball.

I wonder if the Jays will bring up Bloss with a Scherzer IL stint and leave Rodriguez in the pen as his command really holds him back from starting.

[Terminator]

28 minutes ago, BB17 said:

The pitching does kind of scare me. The depth looks pretty bad and we already have seen a few injuries so far. If Hoffman or Garcia go down it looks really bleak and the bullpen again looks like one of the worst in baseball.

I wonder if the Jays will bring up Bloss with a Scherzer IL stint and leave Rodriguez in the pen as his command really holds him back from starting.

Yeah it hasn't been a disastrous Spring, but I definitely have my concerns with the pitching too. Though to be fair, I think most teams in the league can say the same.