Article: The Blue Jays Haven’t Discussed an Extension With Bo Bichette

[Davy Andrews]

With spring training underway and Bo Bichette entering his contract year, it's not exactly reassuring to learn that the Blue Jays have not yet raised the possibility of an extension.

Bo Bichette is the kind of player you build around. A fierce competitor with a career 119 wRC+ and adequate defense at shortstop, Bichette will turn 27 just before the season starts, meaning he’s in his prime. He’s an All-Star, and until his disastrous 2024 campaign, he’d received MVP votes in three straight seasons. I don’t know what to expect from Bichette in 2025. I don’t think anyone does. We should definitely expect him to bounce back to some degree; it’s hard to imagine a universe where the 71 wRC+ he put up during his injury-shortened 2024 reflects his true talent level. However, the season also contained some real reasons for concern, and we probably shouldn’t just expect him to return to the player he was before. When you don’t know what to expect from a player, it makes it awfully hard to figure out what kind of contract to offer him.

Bichette actually ran a higher average bat speed in 2024 than he did in 2023. In fact, 13 of his 17 fastest tracked swings came in 2024. So, while the calf injury that kept him out for half the season surely slowed him down to some degree, it didn’t seem to be keeping him from getting his A-swing off. Bichette’s hard-hit rate wasn’t a career-low, but advanced metrics like 90th percentile exit velocity showed that his top-end power took a major step back. Moreover, when he did hit the ball hard, he didn’t optimize that contact. In 2024, Bichette pulled just five fly balls, or 2% of his balls in play. He’s always been the type to spray line drives around the field, but that was by far the lowest mark of his career. That’s something he’ll need to fix going forward, and the good news is that new hitting coach David Popkins joins the Blue Jays after years with the Twins, who have had an intense, years’-long focus on pulling the ball in the air. He just might be exactly what Bichette needs right now.

With all of this uncertainty as Bichette goes into his contract year, it seems like this would be a good time to have an open dialogue. It would make sense for the Blue Jays to find out what Bichette is thinking. Maybe he’s willing to trade on the five years of excellent performance he already has in the bank, and he’s looking for a long-term deal. Maybe he’d prefer some security right now. Maybe he wants the chance to bounce back go into free agency on a positive note. Either way, the news that the Blue Jays haven’t discussed an extension with Bichette at all isn’t particularly encouraging.

Bichette has said all the right things and made it clear that he understands the bigger picture, telling Hazel Mae, “Obviously, Vladdy is the priority at this point,” on Sunday. Ross Atkins has understandably been cagey with the press regarding his interactions with both Guerrero and Bichette, fearful of making an unforced error in a public statement. The Blue Jays spent the offseason chasing big free agents, and while they didn’t land everyone they had their eye on, they did succeed in improving the team. After that, the focus was on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but now that his spring training deadline has passed, it should be time to focus on Bichette. Even if no deal gets done, this is the time to build bridges and to stress to Bichette that the team sees him as a Blue Jay over the long haul.

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[Jim Scott]

Take yourself back to Feb 2024.  Bo is coming off another ~4 fWAR year, after posting 4.8 and 4.9 fWAR in 2021 and 2022 and leading the AL in hits in both years.  This despite playing SS - a position for which he is clearly not suited.  Meanwhile, Vladdy is coming off a 1.3 fWAR year (i.e. below mlb average) in 2023 and 3.3 in 2022.  Two questions:
   1.  If I had asked you then which of the two the Jays should extend, assuming you could only extend one, which would you have picked?
   2.  Should one year make that much difference?

IMO, as soon as it became clear that Vladdy wanted $400m++, the Jays should have shifted focus to Bo - on condition that he move to 2B

[Brownie19]

I think it's seen obvious to most that Bo wants to test free agency and most here share legit concerns about his ability to sustain his offensive abilities past his early 30's.  He relies too much on skills that erode with age.

I've really enjoyed watching and cheering for Bo over the years, but I think his time with the Jays is coming to an end.

[Laika]

Corey Seager for 10/$325 from Texas. He was a FA entering his age 28 season. An offense first SS without an amazing defensive reputation (many thought he was too big for the position, breaking in) and some injury history. 

I am not saying that Bo Bichette is worth 10/$300M but why should Bo Bichette do anything other than try to have a 5 WAR year and target that kind of deal? 

I wonder what the Jays would even have to offer right now for him to come to the table... 

 

[Brownie19]

That's a pretty good comp right there. 

Willy Adames isn't a bad one either.  He reached free agency a year older than Bo (29 v. 28), but they have had similar results to date (albeit they do it in different ways) and he can actually stick at SS.  I think that's a clear sign the market has dropped and I don't think Bo gets anything close to $300M.

[Laika]

35 minutes ago, Brownie19 said:

That's a pretty good comp right there. 

Willy Adames isn't a bad one either.  He reached free agency a year older than Bo (29 v. 28), but they have had similar results to date (albeit they do it in different ways) and he can actually stick at SS.  I think that's a clear sign the market has dropped and I don't think Bo gets anything close to $300M.

Might have more to do with teams not trusting Adames' bat to age gracefully + the swing and miss limiting his ceiling. 

Seager would have been (correctly) seen as a more sound hitter fundamentally, with actual 6 win upside. 

So in that respect I am not sure Bo comps to him exactly. I mean it's a .290/.330 hitter with 25 HR power vs a .290/.360 hitter with 30 HR power. 

But we know the band of contracts for sure. The Jays might keep him around for Adames money and Bo probably thinks he can approach Seager money with a strong 2025. 

There are other data points like the Boogers deal being a lemon which might make teams hesitant on the big 10/$300M template. 

Swanson is another possible comp. Really no shortage of long term SS contract comps.... 

[Jonn]

Bo has a lot to prove this year. And realistically I don’t know what his demand on the free agent is because I doubt many teams are looking at him as SS, I don’t think it’s in the best interest of either side to extend now. At the high end he’s probably looking at something close to what Marcus Semien signed for. But he’s going to have to have a big year.

[Spanky99]

1 hour ago, Brownie19 said:

That's a pretty good comp right there. 

Willy Adames isn't a bad one either.  He reached free agency a year older than Bo (29 v. 28), but they have had similar results to date (albeit they do it in different ways) and he can actually stick at SS.  I think that's a clear sign the market has dropped and I don't think Bo gets anything close to $300M.

Bo would get an Adames contract, if he were a FA today. If he put up 5 WAR he's at least a 225M - 250M dollar guy, I believe. Time to strike is now on the cheap.

[Northstar123]

What I would be comfortable paying Bo and Vladdy if they had a good year this year (4 to 5 War) and having the contracts player friendly as they would be free agents at the end of the year would be 300M for 10yr for Bo ( starting at 27M per and increasing slightly until he is 30 and then decreasing) and 360M for 12yr for Vladdy ( same style as Bo starting at 30 and paying him less in the last few years). I probably wouldn't get either one to sign but I would feel comfortable that I'm not sacrificing my teams future payroll and would wish them well. I would have already signed both back in 2021 though at way lower amounts. Wander Franco level $182 Mil for 11yr. Thanks Ross!

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Northstar123 said:

What I would be comfortable paying Bo and Vladdy if they had a good year this year (4 to 5 War) and having the contracts player friendly as they would be free agents at the end of the year would be 300M for 10yr for Bo ( starting at 27M per and increasing slightly until he is 30 and then decreasing) and 360M for 12yr for Vladdy ( same style as Bo starting at 30 and paying him less in the last few years). I probably wouldn't get either one to sign but I would feel comfortable that I'm not sacrificing my teams future payroll and would wish them well. I would have already signed both back in 2021 though at way lower amounts. Wander Franco level $182 Mil for 11yr. Thanks Ross!

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