Article: Six Questions About the Blue Jays' Anthony Santander Signing

[Davy Andrews]

The Blue Jays have committed to five years with the slugger. It's time for some answers.

On Monday, the Blue Jays signed former Orioles slugger Anthony Santander to a five-year, $92.5-million contract that is not without its risks. Let's dive into some questions about the deal and what it means for Toronto.

Up to six years for a 30-year-old defensively challenged outfielder?

Let’s tackle the contract length first. It’s a five-year deal, but it could be a three-year deal if Santander opts out (which could then become a six-year deal if the Jays want to void the opt-out). Who knows what the Jays roster might look like in three years? Right now, the only non-arbitration contracts that run beyond 2027 belong to José Berríos and the newly acquired Andrés Giménez.

I’m not going to suggest that the Jays don’t care at all about years four, five, and six of this deal, but if they’re a problem, they’re a problem for another day (and maybe even a different front office). That’s how most long-term contracts work anyway: the player provides the bulk of their value up front, so they’re underpaid in the first few years and overpaid in the last few. The important part of this signing is now. Santander immediately makes this team better. He hit 44 home runs last season and is “only” projected to hit 32 to 36 this year. Those 32 homers would have led the Blue Jays. They need his power and they need it this season.

Is this the George Springer signing repeating itself?

In 2021, George Springer signed a six-year, $150-million deal to come to Toronto in his age-31 season. He put up a combined 6.7 fWAR in his first two seasons, but he has been below replacement level over the past two seasons. Springer and Santander don’t profile as the same type of player, but the contracts, ages and shared position will draw inevitable comparisons. Will Santander’s power decline gradually or are we headed for a cliff? From an impact perspective, again, the important thing is this season. I don’t think the front office is thinking too far out. Let’s also take a moment to appreciate some intangibles. Springer has been a fan favourite since his arrival ,and his signing really signified that the Jays were contenders in a heated AL East. If Santander is Springer 2.0, maybe that’s not such a bad thing.

What about Vladdy and Bo?

The contract status of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette is going to be the shadow that hangs over every transaction this front office makes until they’re extended, traded, or allowed to walk. Santander will, at the very least, provide some protection in the lineup for Guerrero Jr. If that boosts his trade value or entices him to stay, then that’s just the way it breaks. Both of Toronto’s pending free agents are going to get paid; the when and where are to be determined.

What about Bregman and Alonso?

Like Merry and Pippin said shortly after setting off an unlawfully acquired firework: “That was good.” “Let’s get another one!”

There is still a pair of big name free agents out there, and the Jays still have a hole (or two) in their lineup. Could Toronto go all in and continue to add? Until we find out they’ve signed elsewhere, we can continue to dream. Alex Bregman is at the top of the list. He has the highest projected fWAR of the remaining free agent class at 4.0, and he comes with the highest projected contract. How does $162 million over six years sound for the (soon to be) 31-year-old third basemen? Bregman still grades out well according to the advanced metrics, and he won his first Gold Glove last year (the Jays love adding a Gold Glover).

The Jays have also been linked to Pete Alonso. I’m of the opinion that the Jays should make signing the Polar Bear their priority and immediately cross-promote with the Toronto Zoo just based on the nickname! There would be some positional shuffling required. Santander and Springer would have to play every day in the outfield, while Alonso and Guerrero would have to share first and DH, with Guerrero getting the occasional start at third. But if the front office has decided privately that we’re back to digging the long ball, Alonso is the next bat we need.

View full article

[Orgfiller]

Just a note on the article, while Springer has been disappointing his last two seasons, he certainly hasn't been below replacement level. 3 fWAR combined the previous two seasons. Perhaps below average was the intended usage here?

Also unless I'm misreading it appears that there's only 4 questions as opposed to 6. Four fair questions, mind you.

[max silver]

I believe that the actual contract structure is very important in this discussion as well. Given that it contains a lot of deferred money I believe this mitigates quite a bit of the inherent risk as Santander's present day value corresponds to a lowly $14 million AAV. I do believe it's frontloaded to a certain degree for the first three seasons, so this could potentially increase the likelihood of Santander utilizing his opt out after the 3rd year of the deal as well which would be a fantastic result for the club. 

[Laika]

I love this contract, it's a masterpiece by Boss Atkins. 
 

• What if he becomes a crummy player? No big deal, NPV of $14M AAV is peanuts. 
• What if he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue one - great! Thanks for the service Tony.
• What is he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue two - void his opt out by exercising the team option and thereby capture the upside on the remaining contract! This solves the normal issue with player options.
• What if the team tanks in 2025 and AS is here for five years? Well, at least it's front-loaded so the effect on actual payroll in 2028/2029 is minimal.  

[wilko]

14 minutes ago, Laika said:

I love this contract, it's a masterpiece by Boss Atkins. 
 

• What if he becomes a crummy player? No big deal, NPV of $14M AAV is peanuts. 
• What if he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue one - great! Thanks for the service Tony.
• What is he is really good and opts out in three years? Avenue two - void his opt out by exercising the team option and thereby capture the upside on the remaining contract! This solves the normal issue with player options.
• What if the team tanks in 2025 and AS is here for five years? Well, at least it's front-loaded so the effect on actual payroll in 2028/2029 is minimal.  

Alpha Atkins deal. 

[Stangstag]

1 hour ago, max silver said:

I believe that the actual contract structure is very important in this discussion as well. Given that it contains a lot of deferred money I believe this mitigates quite a bit of the inherent risk as Santander's present day value corresponds to a lowly $14 million AAV. I do believe it's frontloaded to a certain degree for the first three seasons, so this could potentially increase the likelihood of Santander utilizing his opt out after the 3rd year of the deal as well which would be a fantastic result for the club. 

Yeah the Springer and Santander contracts are not comparable. Santander is not being paid like a superstar, totally fair deal.

[max silver]

2 minutes ago, Stangstag said:

Yeah the Springer and Santander contracts are not comparable. Santander is not being paid like a superstar, totally fair deal.

I view Santander's deal as pretty similar to Schwarber's, but it's more team friendly after you factor in the deferrals. If Santander becomes more of a DH in a year or two that's no big deal as he's really only being paid like one.