Vladdy/Bo Extension or Trade Discussion

[AMS528]

I don't have much to say on Bo, simply because it's very obvious he's going to free agency and there's less than a 0% chance he signs an extension.

 

My rationale:

 

1) history of negotiations with him. he turned down raises in pre-arb years because he thought they weren't high enough and chose to earn league minimum to make a point (Manoah did too after his big year).

2) recent free agent deals signed by mid to late 20's aged shortstops.

 

Yeah agreed. No discussions about where we'd trade him to as well though.

 

Bo's future earnings also really hugely depend on next year. He's not Baez, and I think his ability to make contact is obviously much better, but a free swinging SS, who is not great defensively might raise some questions for GMs. There's like a 150 million dollar potential difference for him based on how next year goes.

[glory]

I think roughly 14 pages worth of these posts are about Vlad and there's been maybe 1 page of discussion about Bo, which is interesting. He's had a horrible year, but he also has the better history of performance.

 

Despite that there's essentially there's zero hope, and a significantly reduced desire to sign him to an extension. And his year has been so miserable no one even wants to come up with potential trades that might happen in the winter. Tough times.

 

Even if he were having a typical Bo season, he wouldn’t be a long term candidate for me. Aside from the fact that he’s likely salivating to test free agency, he has a very risky offensive profile that won’t age well and he probably shouldn’t be a SS (certainly won’t be for much longer if his lower body injuries continue).

 

Given what the front office’s goal is (winning in 2025), might as well keep Bichette and hope the allure of free agency leads to a big year. After that, let him be someone else’s unmovable contract.

[John_Havok]

Yeah agreed. No discussions about where we'd trade him to as well though.

 

Bo's future earnings also really hugely depend on next year. He's not Baez, and I think his ability to make contact is obviously much better, but a free swinging SS, who is not great defensively might raise some questions for GMs. There's like a 150 million dollar potential difference for him based on how next year goes.

 

Trade discussion was basically killed by his injury status. No team would be paying full sticker price when they don't know a guy is going to back before September, another season of control or not.

[Spanky99]

Trade discussion was basically killed by his injury status. No team would be paying full sticker price when they don't know a guy is going to back before September, another season of control or not.

 

Yeah, your last 2 posts are spot on.

[Omar]

Trade discussion was basically killed by his injury status. No team would be paying full sticker price when they don't know a guy is going to back before September, another season of control or not.

 

Yeah as a rental a team could have gotten 2 post seasons out of him. When he became the gimp that all went out the window.

[hanton]

Vlady > Freddie

[John_Havok]

Vlady > Freddie

 

No....

 

But, here's the wRC+ leaderboards sorted from the date of Vlad's MLB debut to today.

 

[max silver]

No....

 

But, here's the wRC+ leaderboards sorted from the date of Vlad's MLB debut to today.

 

 

Another way to compare these guys would be to post their career averages up the age where Vlad sits at present. Freeman produced an average 131 wRC+ by the end of his age 25 season in 2015, vs the 136 wRC+ that Vlad finds himself at presently for his career. Freeman has generally been a much more effective defender and baserunner than Vlad but Vlad has a very realistic chance to eventually surpass the type of offensive output that Freeman has produced as Vlad has seemingly just hit his peak.

[BigCecil]

I remember Big Papi pre season interview on B and B where he was supremely confident Vlad would have a big year. For awhile it didn’t look like it would happen. He was right. A fav target around here for under performance he sure has turned that around even if the team hasn’t. Only an overpay will keep him from the market unless he goes back 2023 ish next year. The FO was getting credit for not extending at one point. Its going to be interesting how this all plays out.

[John_Havok]

Another way to compare these guys would be to post their career averages up the age where Vlad sits at present. Freeman produced an average 131 wRC+ by the end of his age 25 season in 2015, vs the 136 wRC+ that Vlad finds himself at presently for his career. Freeman has generally been a much more effective defender and baserunner than Vlad but Vlad has a very realistic chance to eventually surpass the type of offensive output that Freeman has produced as Vlad has seemingly just hit his peak.

 

Lets just look at that then!

 

Guerrero

 

 

Freeman

[Omar]

Lets just look at that then!

 

Guerrero

 

 

Freeman

 

Are you arguing against your position here?

[Barrelsandbombs]

Passan seems to have changed his tune very quickly on Vlad.

 

[max silver]

Passan seems to have changed his tune very quickly on Vlad.

 

 

Wasn't this the same guy that recently suggested there was zero chance Vlad was going to earn over $300 million?

[Barrelsandbombs]

Wasn't this the same guy that recently suggested there was zero chance Vlad was going to earn over $300 million?

 

He said a lot of people in the industry pushed back on that and called him a moron.

[Spanky99]

Get off the fence, Passan! Hahaha... I get it, he was told he was wrong.

[John_Havok]

Are you arguing against your position here?

 

I'm presenting information, not taking a position.

 

 

but if youre referring to the Vlad > Freeman post from before, ... no. Freeman is right now, a better overall player than Vlad is.

 

My posts are just comparing the two players from their own debut's through their age 25 season. One could reasonably argue that Vlad has been as valuable as Freeman over that stretch, given that they're basically a push.

 

What remains to be seen is what Vlad does from 26-34. Freeman has put up 45.6 fWAR over that stretch... gotten better defensively than he was from 20-25, and has been basically a neutral baserunner, while putting up a 149 wRC+.

 

Do you think Vlad is going to do that from 26-34?

[glory]

Anyone who thinks Vlad isn’t getting at least $300m if he’s putting up 2021 numbers is going to be disappointed.

[Omar]

I'm presenting information, not taking a position.

 

 

but if youre referring to the Vlad > Freeman post from before, ... no. Freeman is right now, a better overall player than Vlad is.

 

My posts are just comparing the two players from their own debut's through their age 25 season. One could reasonably argue that Vlad has been as valuable as Freeman over that stretch, given that they're basically a push.

 

What remains to be seen is what Vlad does from 26-34. Freeman has put up 45.6 fWAR over that stretch... gotten better defensively than he was from 20-25, and has been basically a neutral baserunner, while putting up a 149 wRC+.

 

Do you think Vlad is going to do that from 26-34?

 

Yeah, I thought you were taking a position on Vlad> Freeman because you responded with strong no.

 

Yes, I think Vladdy will surpass basically all of Freemans offensive numbers by the time his career is done.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, I thought you were taking a position on Vlad> Freeman because you responded with strong no.

 

Yes, I think Vladdy will surpass basically all of Freemans offensive numbers by the time his career is done.

 

How about Baserunning and defense?

 

I mean, if you told me right now Vlad was going to put up 45.6 fWAR over the next 9 seasons, i'd give him his 10 year deal at 350 million without blinking. I don't think he will though... bat might be great, baserunning and D will not be.

[Omar]

How about Baserunning and defense?

 

I mean, if you told me right now Vlad was going to put up 45.6 fWAR over the next 9 seasons, i'd give him his 10 year deal at 350 million without blinking. I don't think he will though... bat might be great, baserunning and D will not be.

 

Yeah, you noticed I was particular in what I wrote. However, to my mind how often do potential HOF players come along. We were fortunate with Alomar and Doc. We shouldn't let this one pass us by, term and aav be damned.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, you noticed I was particular in what I wrote. However, to my mind how often do potential HOF players come along. We were fortunate with Alomar and Doc. We shouldn't let this one pass us by, term and aav be damned.

 

I agree ... assuming its not ludicrous. Like, i would love the Jays to go get Soto and lock up Vlad at the same time. They're it for the next 10 years. Bo comes back next year, and if he has a more typical Bo season, I don't see how they don;t make noise in the playoffs with a competant starting staff and pen. Then you let Bo walk, take the 4th round comp pick, and figure out how to surround Vlad and Soto with talent for the remainder of their contracts.

[hanton]

No....

 

But, here's the wRC+ leaderboards sorted from the date of Vlad's MLB debut to today.

 

 

half joking but for 2024...

 

[hanton]

Lets just look at that then!

 

Guerrero

 

 

Freeman

 

even better

[hanton]

That comparison assumes fWAR calculation has not changed since 2010, but it has

[Spanky99]

That comparison assumes fWAR calculation has not changed since 2010, but it has

 

What do you mean?

[hanton]

What do you mean?

 

like this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-fangraphs-war-update/

 

replaced UZR with OAA in the calculation of fWAR

[Omar]

That comparison assumes fWAR calculation has not changed since 2010, but it has

 

Any changes are adjusted to all tables going back. So if there was an error or adjustment it is just a keystroke away from correction.

[Omar]

What do you mean?

 

[QUOTE]Since we launched FanGraphs WAR in 2008, we have used various components of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) such as Range, Outfield Arm, and Double Play Conversion to evaluate position player fielding. Today, we’re changing one of those components. Retroactive to the 2016 season, we have swapped out the Range component of UZR for the Statcast metric Fielding Runs Prevented, which is Outs Above Average (OAA) converted to runs above average. The UZR Outfield Arm and Double Play Conversion components of WAR remain unchanged.

...

[glory]

I agree ... assuming its not ludicrous. Like, i would love the Jays to go get Soto and lock up Vlad at the same time. They're it for the next 10 years. Bo comes back next year, and if he has a more typical Bo season, I don't see how they don;t make noise in the playoffs with a competant starting staff and pen. Then you let Bo walk, take the 4th round comp pick, and figure out how to surround Vlad and Soto with talent for the remainder of their contracts.

 

If Rogers is willing to commit a billion dollars to two players, then I'm down. It won't happen, but we can dream. At least extending Vlad is realistic. If the Jays outbid NYY/NYM/LAD for Soto, then Atkins or whoever is in charge this winter is a damn magician.

[Spanky99]

like this https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-fangraphs-war-update/

 

replaced UZR with OAA in the calculation of fWAR

 

[QUOTE]Since we launched FanGraphs WAR in 2008, we have used various components of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) such as Range, Outfield Arm, and Double Play Conversion to evaluate position player fielding. Today, we’re changing one of those components. Retroactive to the 2016 season, we have swapped out the Range component of UZR for the Statcast metric Fielding Runs Prevented, which is Outs Above Average (OAA) converted to runs above average. The UZR Outfield Arm and Double Play Conversion components of WAR remain unchanged.

 

 

Gotcha thanks. So OAA added, makes sense.