Drafting and Development Comparison - 2010-2015 and 2016-2023

[AMS528]

There's been a lot of discussion about how the Jays have drafted the last few years and their player development and also discussions about how they've drafted relative to other teams and the last management team. I figure a comparison with the last regime for productivity would be useful. There was some continuity from JP to AA, but it's hard to measure for part credit so I'm not going to do that and just start from 2010.

 

This is incredibly simple I'm literally just going to be using bWAR for it. It would not be fair to measure WAR totals for the 2010-2015 period so I'm just counting whatever was accumulated until 2017 so it's a fair seven year window. It is going to lack precision because it is tiring and I have a job I'm avoiding to do it. Unsigned players don't count.

 

I'm also going to note any major players obtained with those pieces, cause a major part of drafting is about accumulating chips to cash in later.

 

I will also list international signings but not bothering with WAR totals there.

 

2010

 

Aaron Sanchez (8.3)

Noah Syndergaard (7.9 for the Mets)

Sam Dyson (2.9 for other teams)

 

The Jays also drafted Chad Green and Kris Bryant but they didn't sign them so no credit there. Other notable names were Nicolino, Asher Woj and Sean Nolin, all of whom were pieces in fairly major deals later on.

 

All those other pieces including Nicolino and guys like Pompey accumulated 1.1 WAR between them by 2017. Mostly Danny Barnes accomplished this with one good 2017.

 

9.4 WAR accumulated for the Jays. 20.2 in total.

 

2011

 

This was an really good draft the Jays did not reap enough benefits from.

 

Kevin Pillar (12.5)

Joe Musgrove (0.6 with Houston)

Daniel Norris (2.8 mostly with Detroit)

Desclafani (3.7 mostly with Cincinnati)

 

The Jays also drafted Aaron and Austin Nola that year with no real hope of signing them. Jon Berti was also drafted but he accumulated all his value post 2017. The rest accumulated a grand total of -1 WAR.

 

The Jays got 12.9 WAR from this draft. 18.6 WAR in total by 2017.

 

2012

 

This one is super simple. Jays only took a single player worth mentioning.

 

Marcus Stroman (9.6)

 

The Jays also took Borucki but all value he accumulated was after 2017. The rest managed -0.3 in that time.

 

9.3 WAR all for the Jays by 2017.

 

2013

 

Not a bad draft in total.

 

Matthew Boyd (1.7 for Detroit)

Kendall Gravemen (6.5 mostly for Oakland)

 

 

Danny Jansen and Tim Mayza were also taken in this draft but did not start accumulating value until 2018. Rowdy also was taken and accumulated a grand total of 0.1 WAR in all his post 2018 seasons since then.

 

The Jays got -0.3 WAR accumulated for them in this draft. 7.9 total by 2017.

 

2014

 

No one produced anything for the Jays by 2017. Jeff Hoffman produced negative value within that time. Jordan Romano and Lane Thomas were also taken by the Jays this draft which improved it long term.

 

-0.3 WAR produced by Jeff Hoffman for the Rockies in total.

 

2015

 

A really bad draft. Only Brady Singer amounted to anything and the Jays failed to sign him.

 

Nothing accumulated by 2017.

 

Totals: The Jays got 31.3 WAR produced for the Jays from the picks. 55.7 WAR was produced by 2017 from those drafts.

 

 

 

Ok now onto this regime.

2016

 

The best draft they've had because of one player.

 

Bo Bichette (17.8)

Cavan Biggio (7)

 

Zach Jackson and Josh Winckowski have also produced some value from this draft elsewhere. Shea Langeliers was drafted but not signed.

 

 

25.8 WAR for the Jays from this. 26.1 in total.

 

 

2017

 

Terrible draft.

 

Davis Schneider (1.8)

Riley Adams (1.6 elsewhere)

Ryan Noda (2.3 with Oakland)

 

Remember the totals only include up to 2023 which is why Schneider is not at 3.1 and Noda is not lower with his terrible year. Also taken were Nate Pearson, Kevin Smith and Zach Logue whose numbers bring down the entire year more.

 

1.4 WAR for the Jays 3.4 total WAR from this draft to 2023.

 

2018

 

Nightmare draft.

 

Barger, Groshans, Cal Stevenson and and Vinny Capra were notables. The fact that I am listing Groshans, Stevenson and Capra as notables is a bad sign.

 

-0.6 WAR total for the Jays from this one, and basically the same in total.

 

2019

 

This draft produced one temporarily great player.

 

Alek Manoah (7.4)

 

Spencer Horwitz was also taken. 7.7 total for the Jays.

 

2020

 

COVID draft. No one has produced anything for the Jays. Austin Martin and Nick Frasso were taken in those five picks.

 

2021

 

Nothing from here. Ricky T and Gunnar Hoglund were taken.

 

2022 and 2023

 

Combined these two given the recency. No real top prospects have emerged from these two drafts as of yet.

 

Totals: 34.3 WAR in total for the Jays. 36.6 in total.

 

 

So the Atkins drafts actually in total produced more WAR specifically for the Jays but an incredibly large portion of this was the first draft with Biggio and Bichette (and this also includes additional drafts for this one although it's balanced out by the loss of development from COVID).

 

In total though there is a huge gap in total WAR drafted by each management team. There were simply a lot more pieces to go about dealing from the AA drafts.

 

That bears itself out as AA used some of the draft pieces to get Happ, Buehrle, Reyes, Dickey, Donaldson, Tulo, and Price. Some of these were ultimately pretty bad deals by AA, with one home run deal in Donaldson.

 

Big pieces by Atkins for those drafted pieces are Berrios, Chapman and Stripling. Honestly given the sheer lack of pieces drafted by Atkins his trade history is very good, there is no doubt that is his greatest strength in his tenure.

 

I cannot find a definitive list of AA international signings but obviously he got Vlad, Osuna, and Franklin Barreto from my recollection, and Atkins got Kirk/Moreno/Orelvis.

 

 

I think from looking at these in totality, there's no doubt that the AA team was better at both drafting and developing. There are many players who turned out with good long term careers and even within that timeframe produced plenty of value. But he also made some terrible trades and lost out on some of that cheap value. Given he's drafted well with Atlanta, it seems like he could have continued to do that if he had stuck around. He may have also continued to make some bad trades cause he liked taking risks.

 

Atkins draft record is one year aside really really terrible, and that was nearly 8 years ago now that draft took place. After that point in time it has been 7 years of not much to show for it which is a great way to absolutely handicap the long term future and ability to stay a contender. We have no pieces to deal, and very little to look forward to for prospects.

[Carlos Danger]

So I think we can all agree that the best player drafted during the Atkins regime was Bichette taken in the 2016 draft. Same draft as Biggio

 

So for those who don't remember the Jays scouting director and others we all fired shortly thereafter. In addition, the the area scout, Mat Bishoff, who identified Bichette and developed the relationship/repour with him, also is gone.

 

That whole Team was left over from the AA years.

 

 

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-fire-scouting-director-parker-crosschecker-david/

[max silver]

There's been a lot of discussion about how the Jays have drafted the last few years and their player development and also discussions about how they've drafted relative to other teams and the last management team. I figure a comparison with the last regime for productivity would be useful. There was some continuity from JP to AA, but it's hard to measure for part credit so I'm not going to do that and just start from 2010.

 

This is incredibly simple I'm literally just going to be using bWAR for it. It would not be fair to measure WAR totals for the 2010-2015 period so I'm just counting whatever was accumulated until 2017 so it's a fair seven year window. It is going to lack precision because it is tiring and I have a job I'm avoiding to do it. Unsigned players don't count.

 

I'm also going to note any major players obtained with those pieces, cause a major part of drafting is about accumulating chips to cash in later.

 

I will also list international signings but not bothering with WAR totals there.

 

2010

 

Aaron Sanchez (8.3)

Noah Syndergaard (7.9 for the Mets)

Sam Dyson (2.9 for other teams)

 

The Jays also drafted Chad Green and Kris Bryant but they didn't sign them so no credit there. Other notable names were Nicolino, Asher Woj and Sean Nolin, all of whom were pieces in fairly major deals later on.

 

All those other pieces including Nicolino and guys like Pompey accumulated 1.1 WAR between them by 2017. Mostly Danny Barnes accomplished this with one good 2017.

 

9.4 WAR accumulated for the Jays. 20.2 in total.

 

2011

 

This was an really good draft the Jays did not reap enough benefits from.

 

Kevin Pillar (12.5)

Joe Musgrove (0.6 with Houston)

Daniel Norris (2.8 mostly with Detroit)

Desclafani (3.7 mostly with Cincinnati)

 

The Jays also drafted Aaron and Austin Nola that year with no real hope of signing them. Jon Berti was also drafted but he accumulated all his value post 2017. The rest accumulated a grand total of -1 WAR.

 

The Jays got 12.9 WAR from this draft. 18.6 WAR in total by 2017.

 

2012

 

This one is super simple. Jays only took a single player worth mentioning.

 

Marcus Stroman (9.6)

 

The Jays also took Borucki but all value he accumulated was after 2017. The rest managed -0.3 in that time.

 

9.3 WAR all for the Jays by 2017.

 

2013

 

Not a bad draft in total.

 

Matthew Boyd (1.7 for Detroit)

Kendall Gravemen (6.5 mostly for Oakland)

 

 

Danny Jansen and Tim Mayza were also taken in this draft but did not start accumulating value until 2018. Rowdy also was taken and accumulated a grand total of 0.1 WAR in all his post 2018 seasons since then.

 

The Jays got -0.3 WAR accumulated for them in this draft. 7.9 total by 2017.

 

2014

 

No one produced anything for the Jays by 2017. Jeff Hoffman produced negative value within that time. Jordan Romano and Lane Thomas were also taken by the Jays this draft which improved it long term.

 

-0.3 WAR produced by Jeff Hoffman for the Rockies in total.

 

2015

 

A really bad draft. Only Brady Singer amounted to anything and the Jays failed to sign him.

 

Nothing accumulated by 2017.

 

Totals: The Jays got 31.3 WAR produced for the Jays from the picks. 55.7 WAR was produced by 2017 from those drafts.

 

 

 

Ok now onto this regime.

2016

 

The best draft they've had because of one player.

 

Bo Bichette (17.8)

Cavan Biggio (7)

 

Zach Jackson and Josh Winckowski have also produced some value from this draft elsewhere. Shea Langeliers was drafted but not signed.

 

 

25.8 WAR for the Jays from this. 26.1 in total.

 

 

2017

 

Terrible draft.

 

Davis Schneider (1.8)

Riley Adams (1.6 elsewhere)

Ryan Noda (2.3 with Oakland)

 

Remember the totals only include up to 2023 which is why Schneider is not at 3.1 and Noda is not lower with his terrible year. Also taken were Nate Pearson, Kevin Smith and Zach Logue whose numbers bring down the entire year more.

 

1.4 WAR for the Jays 3.4 total WAR from this draft to 2023.

 

2018

 

Nightmare draft.

 

Barger, Groshans, Cal Stevenson and and Vinny Capra were notables. The fact that I am listing Groshans, Stevenson and Capra as notables is a bad sign.

 

-0.6 WAR total for the Jays from this one, and basically the same in total.

 

2019

 

This draft produced one temporarily great player.

 

Alek Manoah (7.4)

 

Spencer Horwitz was also taken. 7.7 total for the Jays.

 

2020

 

COVID draft. No one has produced anything for the Jays. Austin Martin and Nick Frasso were taken in those five picks.

 

2021

 

Nothing from here. Ricky T and Gunnar Hoglund were taken.

 

2022 and 2023

 

Combined these two given the recency. No real top prospects have emerged from these two drafts as of yet.

 

Totals: 34.3 WAR in total for the Jays. 36.6 in total.

 

 

So the Atkins drafts actually in total produced more WAR specifically for the Jays but an incredibly large portion of this was the first draft with Biggio and Bichette (and this also includes additional drafts for this one although it's balanced out by the loss of development from COVID).

 

In total though there is a huge gap in total WAR drafted by each management team. There were simply a lot more pieces to go about dealing from the AA drafts.

 

That bears itself out as AA used some of the draft pieces to get Happ, Buehrle, Reyes, Dickey, Donaldson, Tulo, and Price. Some of these were ultimately pretty bad deals by AA, with one home run deal in Donaldson.

 

Big pieces by Atkins for those drafted pieces are Berrios, Chapman and Stripling. Honestly given the sheer lack of pieces drafted by Atkins his trade history is very good, there is no doubt that is his greatest strength in his tenure.

 

I cannot find a definitive list of AA international signings but obviously he got Vlad, Osuna, and Franklin Barreto from my recollection, and Atkins got Kirk/Moreno/Orelvis.

 

 

I think from looking at these in totality, there's no doubt that the AA team was better at both drafting and developing. There are many players who turned out with good long term careers and even within that timeframe produced plenty of value. But he also made some terrible trades and lost out on some of that cheap value. Given he's drafted well with Atlanta, it seems like he could have continued to do that if he had stuck around. He may have also continued to make some bad trades cause he liked taking risks.

 

Atkins draft record is one year aside really really terrible, and that was nearly 8 years ago now that draft took place. After that point in time it has been 7 years of not much to show for it which is a great way to absolutely handicap the long term future and ability to stay a contender. We have no pieces to deal, and very little to look forward to for prospects.

 

One really important key to remember was that AA was a master at gaming the free agency compensation system so he received a boatload of extra supplemental first round picks in his earlier years. I don't think it's a coincidence in the slightest that his later drafts were much worse than the earlier years once MLB reworked the compensation system.

 

Some of the guys drafted in the earlier years of the current regime are still working their way through the minors as well. It's too early to place a final grade on some of these drafts as the book is not closed on players like Barger and Tiedemann eventually making an impact. Also of note is that there was no minor league baseball in 2020 which greatly hampered the development of a lot of these players. On top of that the 2020 draft year was only 5 rounds with teams having really limited ability to lay eyes on the eventual draftees.

[AMS528]

One really important key to remember was that AA was a master at gaming the free agency compensation system so he received a boatload of extra supplemental first round picks in his earlier years. I don't think it's a coincidence in the slightest that his later drafts were much worse than the earlier years once MLB reworked the compensation system.

 

Some of the guys drafted in the earlier years of the current regime are still working their way through the minors as well. It's too early to place a final grade on some of these drafts as the book is not closed on players like Barger and Tiedemann eventually making an impact. Also of note is that there was no minor league baseball in 2020 which greatly hampered the development of a lot of these players. On top of that the 2020 draft year was only 5 rounds with teams having really limited ability to lay eyes on the eventual draftees.

 

I addressed the 2020 draft and development issue, but I think that's balanced out cause I considered a lot more drafts (8 for this regime vs 6 for the prior).

 

The long term timeline comparison of these drafts would actually wind up being much worse cause you have Pillar, Syndergaard, Stroman, Musgrove, Boyd, Jansen, Berti, Desclafani and Romano who have so far accumulated something like 75 additional WAR past the total that I have counted to 2017, and a few of those guys will continue to do so over the rest of their career (not including others who have put up minor additional totals like Mayza, Hoffman etc.). All told it's reasonable those collectively drafted guys will have put up between 150-160 WAR by the end of their careers.

 

From the current regimes drafts, guys who could accumulate some solid totals are Bo, Barger, Ricky T, and Schneider and whoever else eventually performs, and I'm fairly skeptical that the total they'll rack up is going to hit the 110-120 WAR it would to get them near the total from the smaller number of drafted cohort of players. If Biggio and Manoah continued their early career promise maybe it could have been closer, but that's derailed.

[max silver]

I addressed the 2020 draft and development issue, but I think that's balanced out cause I considered a lot more drafts (8 for this regime vs 6 for the prior).

 

The long term timeline comparison of these drafts would actually wind up being much worse cause you have Pillar, Syndergaard, Stroman, Musgrove, Boyd, Jansen, Berti, Desclafani and Romano who have so far accumulated something like 75 additional WAR past the total that I have counted to 2017, and a few of those guys will continue to do so over the rest of their career (not including others who have put up minor additional totals like Mayza, Hoffman etc.). All told it's reasonable those collectively drafted guys will have put up between 150-160 WAR by the end of their careers.

 

From the current regimes drafts, guys who could accumulate some solid totals are Bo, Barger, Ricky T, and Schneider and whoever else eventually performs, and I'm fairly skeptical that the total they'll rack up is going to hit the 110-120 WAR it would to get them near the total from the smaller number of drafted cohort of players. If Biggio and Manoah continued their early career promise maybe it could have been closer, but that's derailed.

 

You missed my key point that a huge chunk of AA's successful picks were chosen with extra supplemental picks that don't exist anymore. He was gaming the system to the degree that MLB completely overhauled the compensation system. We can definitely give AA credit for making good picks on a lot of these guys, but at the same time the organization shouldn't be receiving a lot of credit for actually developing these players as the organization was actually pretty bad at developing players during his tenure aside from a few starting pitching success stories, and the only position player the system produced that helped the team was Pillar.

[Brownie19]

One really important key to remember was that AA was a master at gaming the free agency compensation system so he received a boatload of extra supplemental first round picks in his earlier years. I don't think it's a coincidence in the slightest that his later drafts were much worse than the earlier years once MLB reworked the compensation system.

 

Some of the guys drafted in the earlier years of the current regime are still working their way through the minors as well. It's too early to place a final grade on some of these drafts as the book is not closed on players like Barger and Tiedemann eventually making an impact. Also of note is that there was no minor league baseball in 2020 which greatly hampered the development of a lot of these players. On top of that the 2020 draft year was only 5 rounds with teams having really limited ability to lay eyes on the eventual draftees.

 

I was thinking most of this when I read the original post. AA was a loophole master (to his credit).

 

I also question how much credit a GM should get for drafting say Kevin Pillar. He was taken 979th overall. Every GM is just throwing s*** against the wall at that point. Was AA's develop program so incredible that it allowed Pillar to become a ML starter? I suspect the work that Pillar put in on his own and during the offseason was the primary reason he made it. I'm not sure the instruction he received from Jays minor league staff was tangibly better than he would have received from any other minor league system. It's certainly not like the Jays minor league staff would have been focused on ensuring the 32nd round pick was getting the attention he deserved.

 

I still find it incredible just how much the draft is a crapshoot. You'd think the entire league would be getting better at this now that more accurate information is available, but I'm not so sure that's true (maybe it is?). Reminds me of the Moneyball scene where Beane fires Head Scout Grady "You can't look at a kid and predict his future and more than I can. I've sat at this kitchen tables with you when you tell parents, when I know, I know and when it comes to your son, I know.....and you don't.

 

Has any publication done any type of deep dive into drafting to see if any GM/team has a sustained advantage over other teams? I do wonder if it's kind of like a players success with RISP. Some players will go through good stretches with RISP, but MOST players are unable to sustain success year after year, which suggests it's a lot more luck than it is skill. I do wonder if it's similar for GMs/teams.

[Jimcanuck]

Joe Musgrove 16.8 WAR, not 0.6.

 

Also too early to do this assessment. The aforementioned Musgrove wasn't a good MLB pitcher until 7 yrs after being drafted.

[AMS528]

Joe Musgrove 16.8 WAR, not 0.6.

 

Also too early to do this assessment. The aforementioned Musgrove wasn't a good MLB pitcher until 7 yrs after being drafted.

 

For fairness I specifically only measured until 2017 for WAR, otherwise the numbers would be incredibly skewed towards the earlier year draft totals. Earliest draft would have 7 year window to get value from 2010-2017. To match up with 2016-2023. I wanted to do a like for like comparison, so I made a similar window for it hence Stroman, Musgrove etc all having less WAR because it's whatever they had until 2017. Like I mentioned in a post just above, since that point in time the best players from those drafts have accumulated something like 80 additional WAR.

 

The comparison wouldn't make sense otherwise but I think measuring the same window gives a peak into how the drafts were shaping up at similar points in time, and given that, those earlier drafts had turned out many more players even before they had accumulated the bulk of their values.

[Laika]

Good job

 

I guess it is fair to use that seven year cut off just so the measurement is the same on both sides of the line. Even if it is a bit weird since some prospects take 4 years to get to MLB then have 6 years of control. But, time is not infinite and we don't know the future.

 

I guess we would also need to look at international signings. AA has Osuna in that timeframe which was a smash hit. I think Shapiro has had some good ones but they still have not debuted. Orelvis and Leo Jimenez.

 

And then MLB development is the big problem. Right now the big issue is players like Vlad, Bo, Kirk going backwards in their mid 20s.

[Carlos Danger]

AA has Osuna in that timeframe which was a smash hit.

 

Hahaha, I see what you did there.

[AMS528]

You missed my key point that a huge chunk of AA's successful picks were chosen with extra supplemental picks that don't exist anymore. He was gaming the system to the degree that MLB completely overhauled the compensation system. We can definitely give AA credit for making good picks on a lot of these guys, but at the same time the organization shouldn't be receiving a lot of credit for actually developing these players as the organization was actually pretty bad at developing players during his tenure aside from a few starting pitching success stories, and the only position player the system produced that helped the team was Pillar.

 

You're right that was a big part of it, but there's no supplementals in 2013, and that still hit with Gravemann, Boyd, Jansen and Mayza. That's a perfectly good draft. 2014 was not a very good draft and still likely cumulatively to be as good as most of Atkins drafts at this point.

 

And if we're comparing current tenures with the equivalent system then AA started with the Braves with the 2018 draft. So 2 less drafts than Atkins has had.

 

From which they've gotten Michael Harris II, Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder on their major league roster providing value. We have Manoah from the same draft time frames.

 

And guys like Grissom (Sale), Langeliers, Cusick and Estes (Olson) who they've used to get high performing major league talent. Also picked up guys like Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson with pieces from those drafts for their pen. Jorge Soler the year they won with one of those picks.

 

We picked up Berrios, Chapman, and Stripling as major pickups (Martin, Hoglund, Logue, Snead, Noda) that used pieces from those drafts.

 

They've raided their minor league talent much more for deals over the past few years since they've been closer to winning, and nonetheless have the same exact farm system ranking as we do.

[AMS528]

Good job

 

I guess it is fair to use that seven year cut off just so the measurement is the same on both sides of the line. Even if it is a bit weird since some prospects take 4 years to get to MLB then have 6 years of control. But, time is not infinite and we don't know the future.

 

I guess we would also need to look at international signings. AA has Osuna in that timeframe which was a smash hit. I think Shapiro has had some good ones but they still have not debuted. Orelvis and Leo Jimenez.

 

And then MLB development is the big problem. Right now the big issue is players like Vlad, Bo, Kirk going backwards in their mid 20s.

 

I briefly listed those at the bottom. From my memory I think AA's major ones were Vlad, Osuna and Barreto (whose value is obviously as centerpiece for Donaldson), and Atkins has gotten Moreno, Kirk and Orelvis as his three biggest ones.

[Brownie19]

I wonder if in the 2018 draft, if the O's had the #1 overall pick instead of the 11th overall pick, if they still would have taken Grayson Rodriquez - or if they'd be stuck with Casey Mize like Detroit is. The O's landed one of the only useful players in that draft - is that because of their superior scouting and development? or is there a lot of luck involved in that?

 

AA took Carter Stewart in 2018 and he didn't sign (or become anything), followed by Shea Lageliers and Braden Shewmake (who?) in 2019. GM's and teams swing and miss so f***ing often in the MLB draft, that I'm not inclined to given them all kinds of accolades or criticism.

 

Even when you look at internal development/improvement....Have a little gander over at Atlanta and let me know how things are going for them right now. They're now 12th in runs scored (after being 1st last year). Michael Harris and Austin Riley are both in the midst of their 2nd straight year of decline (wRC+, ISO, etc.) - both having horrible years to date. Let me know how Bryce Elder is developing, or how they developed Jared Shuster, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver, etc.

 

Don't get me wrong - still a great team and organization, but it does help show just how difficult this game of baseball is. Trends and such sure can change in a hurry.

[Tim Cooke]

"I wonder if in the 2018 draft, if the O's had the #1 overall pick instead of the 11th overall pick, if they still would have taken Grayson Rodriquez - or if they'd be stuck with Casey Mize like Detroit is. The O's landed one of the only useful players in that draft - is that because of their superior scouting and development? or is there a lot of luck involved in that?"

 

O's got very lucky in 2018 with Rodriquez. That was the old regime, which sucked at amauter scouting and player development. Elias took over in Nov. 2018.

[Jimcanuck]

Shitload of luck in the draft. Arms break, players get concussions, can't handle MLB fastball, etc. Thing is, if a team lucks out and a couple of later round guys turn into stars, bingo its a contender.

 

These guys are making little more than educated guesses during drafts.

 

It's the development part where a team can really make a difference. Lately the Jays are poor in that area.

[AMS528]

I wonder if in the 2018 draft, if the O's had the #1 overall pick instead of the 11th overall pick, if they still would have taken Grayson Rodriquez - or if they'd be stuck with Casey Mize like Detroit is. The O's landed one of the only useful players in that draft - is that because of their superior scouting and development? or is there a lot of luck involved in that?

 

AA took Carter Stewart in 2018 and he didn't sign (or become anything), followed by Shea Lageliers and Braden Shewmake (who?) in 2019. GM's and teams swing and miss so f***ing often in the MLB draft, that I'm not inclined to given them all kinds of accolades or criticism.

 

Even when you look at internal development/improvement....Have a little gander over at Atlanta and let me know how things are going for them right now. They're now 12th in runs scored (after being 1st last year). Michael Harris and Austin Riley are both in the midst of their 2nd straight year of decline (wRC+, ISO, etc.) - both having horrible years to date. Let me know how Bryce Elder is developing, or how they developed Jared Shuster, Kyle Wright, AJ Smith-Shawver, etc.

 

Don't get me wrong - still a great team and organization, but it does help show just how difficult this game of baseball is. Trends and such sure can change in a hurry.

 

But that's why you don't look at the individual picks and players, you look at it across the board over a number of years and then you get a sense of how effective management has been. You look at their ability to manage players having disappointing years, or injuries taking place, because of the depth they've built up from picks/signings/trades and they've managed that generally. They've done it on practically the exact same budget as the Jays as well over that time frame. This year is probably the worst of it given you're losing both your best pitcher and your best player (Strider and Acuna), and we'll see if they still manage anyways. It's the 7th year of their run now, that is an effective long scale of time to win tons of games year after year.