ST GDT: Blue Jays vs Phillies - Tiedemann ST Debut - March 9th 1:05 PM EST

[Spanky99]

This was a Dodger centric review by MLB Pipeline dated March 6th.

 

They have had plenty of opportunity to adjust.

 

Los Angeles has just two Top 100 Prospects, matching its lowest total in the last decade, and one of them (right-hander Nick Frasso) may miss this season following shoulder surgery. But the Dodgers do have a pair of outfielders with potent bats (Andy Pages, Josue De Paula), another wave of nearly-ready arms (River Ryan, Gavin Stone, Kyle Hurt) and plenty of young talent stacked up behind them. They also replenish their system by masterfully trading for prospects while contending, which is how they landed Frasso, Ryan and Hurt in the past and left-hander Jackson Ferris, outfielder Zyhir Hope and shortstops Trey Sweeney and Noah Miller this offseason.

 

MLB Pipeline | Top 100 prospects | Prospect video

Here’s a look at the Dodgers' top prospects:

1. Dalton Rushing, C/1B (MLB No. 75)

2. Nick Frasso, RHP (MLB No. 80)

3. Andy Pages, OF

4. Josue De Paula, OF

5. River Ryan, RHP

Complete Top 30 list »

 

CD give me a link to the Jays review if you can, please.

[Spanky99]

Why does everyone still forget about De Jesus? There was nothing wrong with the trade at the time nor is anything justified, White has one last kick at the can remaining.

[Carlos Danger]

CD give me a link to the Jays review if you can, please.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/toronto-blue-jays-top-30-prospects-list-2024-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

[Spanky99]

https://www.mlb.com/news/toronto-blue-jays-top-30-prospects-list-2024-preseason?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

TY, sir.

 

Oh yes, I remember reading this now.

[Spanky99]

Why does SN not have a gun on the pitches thrown? Embarrassing.

[max silver]

Simple, Mitch White can’t throw fnn strikes and I watched the games. He sucked. I am not saying Francis is a super duper option either. Just saying he appears the most promising among anyone not named Tiedeman who is a mlb ready option.

 

Let’s face it, the Dodgers bent us over on the Mitch White trade.

 

The one time in his career where White couldn't throw strikes was the short 12 inning sample in 2023 where he was coming off of combined shoulder and elbow issues. But of course you are going to focus on that sample of innings only and completely ignore the other 149 innings where this simply wasn't an issue for him. Since you state that you "watched the games" I can only assume that you also watched every game that he appeared in for the Dodgers as well when formulating your opinion of how useless he is.

 

It's way too early to make any type of statements on the White/Frasso trade. In fact White is now featuring very similar stuff to Frasso after the mid season tweaks in Buffalo and now Frasso has undergone combined shoulder and hip surgeries.

[Carlos Danger]

The one time in his career where White couldn't throw strikes was the short 12 inning sample in 2023 where he was coming off of combined shoulder and elbow issues. But of course you are going to focus on that sample of innings only and completely ignore the other 149 innings where this simply wasn't an issue for him. Since you state that you "watched the games" I can only assume that you also watched every game that he appeared in for the Dodgers as well when formulating your opinion of how useless he is.

 

It's way too early to make any type of statements on the White/Frasso trade. In fact White is now featuring very similar stuff to Frasso after the mid season tweaks in Buffalo and now Frasso has undergone combined shoulder and hip surgeries.

 

Why is what he did on occasion with the Dodgers three years ago relevant to how he has pitched as a Blue Jay? Why would the Dodgers (a very smart team) give up on a controllable young SP for some “mid” prospect?

 

We might have got them on the Stripling trade, but twice???

 

This article is from July of 2023, but what has changed?

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-jays-can-treat-mitch-white-as-a-cautionary-tale-with-trade-deadline-approaching-161254413.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKybsAF6Cc44ThN4GonWzGI-t0DIvQSpgQ96wj9FZ-M5ZQCfNZPsESeidX2yJKYU5s0bYNqoBff6VXwGCOABJMjq3ntGL4k_-SNeMLMGmfc1jkYRL1O9bAsuz57voABDQoc6NLOnwgx0o3tl25Bf94yKy7bPJ2YrvbNDeQbprEGD

 

White has a 7.43 ERA in 53.1 innings in Toronto, working as a starter and long reliever. There have been 216 pitchers who've logged at least 50 innings with the Blue Jays in their history, and that number ranks 212th.

 

Max you can FIP me all day long and not even have to buy me dinner. However, I am a very results oriented person. I need to see MLB results with the Blue Jays before I change my assessment.

[John_Havok]

I am a very results oriented person. I need to see MLB results with the Blue Jays before I change my assessment.

 

I respect the POV, but how can he get positive results with the Jays if you aren't willing to give him that chance because of his previous poor results with the Jays?

 

How long would he need to blow away AAA before you're willing to give him another chance on the major league roster even as the multi-inning guy out of the pen rather than a starter?

 

As it stands now, he'd be claimed by someone if they tried to get him through waivers and all the Jays would end up with is cash probably.

[max silver]

Why is what he did on occasion with the Dodgers three years ago relevant to how he has pitched as a Blue Jay? Why would the Dodgers (a very smart team) give up on a controllable young SP for some “mid” prospect?

 

We might have got them on the Stripling trade, but twice???

 

This article is from July of 2023, but what has changed?

 

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/blue-jays-can-treat-mitch-white-as-a-cautionary-tale-with-trade-deadline-approaching-161254413.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAKybsAF6Cc44ThN4GonWzGI-t0DIvQSpgQ96wj9FZ-M5ZQCfNZPsESeidX2yJKYU5s0bYNqoBff6VXwGCOABJMjq3ntGL4k_-SNeMLMGmfc1jkYRL1O9bAsuz57voABDQoc6NLOnwgx0o3tl25Bf94yKy7bPJ2YrvbNDeQbprEGD

 

White has a 7.43 ERA in 53.1 innings in Toronto, working as a starter and long reliever. There have been 216 pitchers who've logged at least 50 innings with the Blue Jays in their history, and that number ranks 212th.

 

Max you can FIP me all day long and not even have to buy me dinner. However, I am a very results oriented person. I need to see MLB results with the Blue Jays before I change my assessment.

 

So you just admitted only the results in a Blue Jays uniform count when evaluating a player. That's honestly not surprising.

 

White's ERA's are terrible as a Blue Jay. Last season he was downright bad with the team but he was essentially forced onto the roster before he was ready to compete. White was brought up to replace Bass when he got himself cancelled as around this time he was running out of time on his rehab assignment and hadn't been having any success against minor league hitters so it was no surprise that he struggled in the majors. In 2022 he didn't deserve the inflated ERA as he fell victim to a .368 BABIP despite largely keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact with an average exit velocity of 87.8 MPH. I suspect that some of this may have been due to the extreme shifting the club deployed that season but that's just a bit of a guess. I recall Gausman was victim to the overshift causing a lot of weakly hit ground balls to find their way through the infield so it's possible White was victim to this as well.

 

I can agree that he's going to need to produce results as a Blue Jay this season if he's to stick around as he's out of options. I think he's going to get a lot of rope given the fact that Manoah isn't going to be ready to start the regular season on time and the club is going to need a long man/swingman type on top of the open rotation spot that Manoa's absence is going to create.

[Carlos Danger]

I respect the POV, but how can he get positive results with the Jays if you aren't willing to give him that chance because of his previous poor results with the Jays?

 

How long would he need to blow away AAA before you're willing to give him another chance on the major league roster even as the multi-inning guy out of the pen rather than a starter?

 

As it stands now, he'd be claimed by someone if they tried to get him through waivers and all the Jays would end up with is cash probably.

 

Ok, fair point. However, two points from my side.

 

1.This conversation started from the premise that White is a viable Depth SP. If he is going to be a long man etc, different risk matrix and different leash IMO.

 

2. I preface this by stating I can't provide a data based rebut on this point. 100% from fuzzy memory. I recall there was a game last season where we went into extras or we had used the majority of our pitchers, the pen was on fumes. The only fresh pitcher left in the pen was White. The Blue Jays decided to go with a pitcher who had already pitched two or three consecutive days prior instead of going with a fresh White. The fatigued pitcher ended up giving up the go ahead runs and we lost.

 

Want to say vs Dodgers on the road...

 

The question at the time was roster management. Why was White even taking up a roster spot if the manager has no confidence in using him?

 

I think this year MLB is mandating 12 pitchers vice 13. Or soon anyway. We won't be able to afford a pitcher that the manager only has confidence to use in a blowout...

Edited March 11, 2024 by Carlos Danger

[Carlos Danger]

So you just admitted only the results in a Blue Jays uniform count when evaluating a player. That's honestly not surprising.

 

He was acquired by the Blue Jays on Aug 1st, 2022 or somewhere very close to there. I should not judge him on one season and two months of baseball as a Blue Jay and still consider his mid success as a Dodger, when making a 2024 roster evaluation?

[max silver]

He was acquired by the Blue Jays on Aug 1st, 2022 or somewhere very close to there. I should not judge him on one season and two months of baseball as a Blue Jay and still consider his mid success as a Dodger, when making a 2024 roster evaluation?

 

If you look past the bloated ERA only of 2022 (this seems like it's hard for you to look beneath the surface) you see a lot of solid underlying numbers. Last season the guy simply wasn't ready to compete when he was called up and the club was forced to either call him up and attempt to shelter him or they likely would have lost him for nothing. Have you not heard how he added several ticks of velocity at the end of the season and how this has carried over to this season? It could be a blessing in disguise that he eventually struggled to the degree he did as he made it through waivers and morphed into a high octane fireballer to end the season in Buffalo. He has potential to be a solid contributor to this year's pen as he has a solid mix of pitches and displayed the ability to miss a ton of bats to end the season.

[Carlos Danger]

If you look past the bloated ERA only of 2022 (this seems like it's hard for you to look beneath the surface) you see a lot of solid underlying numbers. Last season the guy simply wasn't ready to compete when he was called up and the club was forced to either call him up and attempt to shelter him or they likely would have lost him for nothing. Have you not heard how he added several ticks of velocity at the end of the season and how this has carried over to this season? It could be a blessing in disguise that he eventually struggled to the degree he did as he made it through waivers and morphed into a high octane fireballer to end the season in Buffalo. He has potential to be a solid contributor to this year's pen as he has a solid mix of pitches and displayed the ability to miss a ton of bats to end the season.

 

I think it is the National's pitching coach or maybe the GM Mike Rizzo who puts a sign up every year in Spring Training Camp.

 

"We don't care what the velocity was on ball four". Or something like that....

 

Look at White's BB/9.. Look at his projections of the 6 projection orgs. All have him at below average to awful with his the mean being "poor".

 

Velocity or Swinging strike % etc only matters if you have control.

[max silver]

I think it is the National's pitching coach or maybe the GM Mike Rizzo who puts a sign up every year in Spring Training Camp.

 

"We don't care what the velocity was on ball four". Or something like that....

 

Look at White's BB/9.. Look at his projections of the 6 projection orgs. All have him at below average to awful with his the mean being "poor".

 

Velocity or Swinging strike % etc only matters if you have control.

 

Huh? White is projected for a BB/9 ranging from 3.07 BB/9 to a high of 3.54 BB/9. I hardly think that's somehow terrible unless you somehow think the average MLB pitcher has command like Greg Maddux. For what it's worth the MLB average walk rate for 2023 was 3.3, which places White's projections in the firmly average range.

[John_Havok]

I think it is the National's pitching coach or maybe the GM Mike Rizzo who puts a sign up every year in Spring Training Camp.

 

"We don't care what the velocity was on ball four". Or something like that....

 

Look at White's BB/9.. Look at his projections of the 6 projection orgs. All have him at below average to awful with his the mean being "poor".

 

Velocity or Swinging strike % etc only matters if you have control.

 

A fair point made, however, the internal metric the Jays use (or any other team for that matter) will be using far more in depth peripherals, not just looking at velocity, swigning strikes, etc.

 

If the Jays internal evaluation show that White deserves a shot at the 26 man roster before losing him for nothing (well cash or a nothing burger from some org who's stuck at AAA with okay-ish results but he's like 28 or something, never thrown substantial innings and probably just underwent surgery for the 3rd or 4th time... hypothetically), then past results aren't the driver.

 

As fans we have 0 clue what the Jays internal metrics suggest.

 

And you're right, results matter. All we can do is look at the pretty big turnaround in AAA in September of last year, see the much better results as well as the much better publicly available peripherals, combine that with the knowledge of having 0 options left and at least 1 rotation spot up for grabs, possibly 2 to start the season if Gausman isn't ready to go, and conclude that giving White one last shot (either rotation or long man) before jettisoning him is at least defensible.

 

Upside? He actually doesn't suck, provided #5 value and maintains roster flexibility which is always needed.

Downside? He sucks, they cut bait, and bring up the next guy to soak up the innings.

 

Does the risk of 2 outweigh the possible benefits of scenario 1? Unfortunately, we as fans don't possess the actual numbers to form any informed opinion on which of those two scenarios is more likely, though the default position of scenario 2 is the one most would gravitate to given his previous results. It's the safest expectation given the lack of data the Jays have internally and totally understandable.

 

But, the possibility of scenario 1 still exists. In a season where the Jays are clearly going to have to take some chances if they want to top the division, that's a dice roll they could make with no real downside.