Around Baseball 2024

[Jimcanuck]

I'm sure it gets factored in, but no model is perfect.

 

J-Rod 110 wRC+ away and 90 at home, hmmm

[Laika]

Could the fact the M's hitters have been ass have anything to do with it?

 

Lots of obvious cases of decent hitters going there and becoming ass

[Olerud363]

Could the fact the M's hitters have been ass have anything to do with it?

 

Park factor is calculated based on home and road stats for team and opponent for all the teams games, so would not change based on quality of hitter.

 

Like 2022 Rocky's were overall mediocre but park factor was still sky high. 2023 Mariners were an OK hitting team but park factor was low (not as low as this year).

 

One year park factor could have a bit of random randomness, or causal randomness. The latter like the Mariners had e-coli in their post game spread at the beginning of a homestand, or all caught Covid on the flight back from a road trip, thus caused a series of 10 home games to be low scoring for them. Or maybe weather can effect it, but that would effect both teams.

[Olerud363]

Lots of obvious cases of decent hitters going there and becoming ass

 

But park factor only effected if ass hitter ass only at home.

 

If Mariners hit .220 .290 .360 at home, and Mariners hit .210 .270 .330 on road, Mariners ass but park factor high.

[Olerud363]

So its become the new Petco Park?

 

All the west coast parks near the Ocean have always had low park factors haven't they? Safeco, Petco, Candlestick, replacement Candlestick, Oakland Mauseleum, Dodger Stadium.

 

Anaheim maybe is OK, but I went there and it is a bit inland by Disney land in the dryer weather... I went to Safeco and you can smell the Ocean and outside buy the fish just caught from ocean.

[Olerud363]

So its become the new Petco Park?

 

All the west coast parks near the Ocean have always had low park factors haven't they? Safeco, Petco, Candlestick, replacement Candlestick, Oakland Mauseleum, Dodger Stadium.

 

Anaheim maybe is OK, but it is a bit inland by Disney land in the dryer weather... Safeco you can smell the Ocean and outside buy the fish just caught from ocean.

[Jimcanuck]

Fluctuations in park factor is stat noise unless changes have been made to the park. Any model has weaknesses that get worse at the extremes, and may apply to the ass M's hitters in 2024.

[connorp]

Could the fact the M's hitters have been ass have anything to do with it?

 

Whoa whoa. Did you just use my common talking point?

[Jimcanuck]

Whoa whoa. Did you just use my common talking point?

 

I can't make sense of your talking points, so no

[hanton]

Going to be an issue for the Yankees in the Postseason.

 

and he got a little unlucky with the winning hit yesterday - both by the s*** (hit directly where ss should be if playing straight up) and by Dominguez in LF double pumping and allowing a slow McKinstry to score from 2b - he should have bee thrown out at home.

[connorp]

But park factor only effected if ass hitter ass only at home.

 

If Mariners hit .220 .290 .360 at home, and Mariners hit .210 .270 .330 on road, Mariners ass but park factor high.

 

1000% they changed the formula. You can see on Wikipedia even it was changed. It did not include the teams road contests. I absolutely got the better of Tom Tango last year in our debate, and he got his ass back in the kitchen and then made some calls. You’re welcome

[Olerud363]

Fluctuations in park factor is stat noise unless changes have been made to the park. Any model has weaknesses that get worse at the extremes, and may apply to the ass M's hitters in 2024.

 

It is a bit random year to year but hitter quality won't change the park factor. The simplest versions of park factor aren't even a model. Just divsion (team and opponent runs at home)/(team and opponent runs on road).

[Olerud363]

1000% they changed the formula. You can see on Wikipedia even it was changed. It did not include the teams road contests. I absolutely got the better of Tom Tango last year in our debate, and he got his ass back in the kitchen and then made some calls. You’re welcome

 

How could a park factor not include road contests?

[connorp]

Suck on that one, Spanky. Who owned who last year, mate.

[Jimcanuck]

It is a bit random year to year but hitter quality won't change the park factor. The simplest versions of park factor aren't even a model. Just divsion (team and opponent runs at home)/(team and opponent runs on road).

 

Even for that simple model, the fact the M's have a strong pitching staff and ass hitters this year will lower the park factor.

[Olerud363]

1000% they changed the formula. You can see on Wikipedia even it was changed. It did not include the teams road contests. I absolutely got the better of Tom Tango last year in our debate, and he got his ass back in the kitchen and then made some calls. You’re welcome

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_park_factor#:~:text=Batting%20Park%20Factor%2C%20also%20simply,general%20usage%20in%20recent%20years.

 

It seems to be a simple formula that obviously involves road contests? Are you saying what is up there now is different than what was there on Wikipedia a few months ago? Could be the case with Wikipedia.

 

But as far as I know park factors have always been done with a trivially simple formula. Maybe there is some complicated version I am not aware of. Not sure.

[connorp]

How could a park factor not include road contests?

 

Pretty easy. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2023/10/13/coors-field-retakes-its-position-as-most-hitter-friendly-park-in-mlb/

 

Why is that Forbes, idk

[connorp]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_park_factor#:~:text=Batting%20Park%20Factor%2C%20also%20simply,general%20usage%20in%20recent%20years.

 

It seems to be a simple formula that obviously involves road contests? Are you saying what is up there now is different than what was there on Wikipedia a few months ago? Could be the case with Wikipedia.

 

But as far as I know park factors have always been done with a trivially simple formula. Maybe there is some complicated version I am not aware of. Not sure.

 

There’s going to be different models but the Fantrax one did not calculate it that way.

[Olerud363]

Even for that simple model, the fact the M's have a strong pitching staff and ass hitters this year will lower the park factor.

 

Hypothetically if the Mariners have ass hitters and awesome pitchers the numbers might work out something like below?

 

Mariners score 300 runs at home, give up 300 runs at home

 

Mariners score 340 runs at home, give up 340 runs at home

 

Park Factor = (300+300)/(340+340) = 0.88

 

How does the fact Mariners have strong pitching staff and ass hitters change the park factor? Park factor is calculated on the Ratio. Which doesn't change because of quality of hitters

 

Say the opposite. Mariners score and give up 450 runs at home, and 510 on road. Legendary hitting, sucking pitching

 

Calculation is

 

park factor = (450+450)/(510+510) = 0.88

[Olerud363]

Pretty easy. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2023/10/13/coors-field-retakes-its-position-as-most-hitter-friendly-park-in-mlb/

 

Why is that Forbes, idk

 

Seems that is not a park factor just an analysis of batted ball outcomes, which is part of the park factor obviously but not all of it.

 

Elevation, humidity, visibility and weather could lead to less hard contact right. So if I understand it above is looking at how park affects batted balls, but not overall offense/pitching.

[Jimcanuck]

Hypothetically if the Mariners have ass hitters and awesome pitchers the numbers might work out something like below?

 

Mariners score 300 runs at home, give up 300 runs at home

 

Mariners score 340 runs at home, give up 340 runs at home

 

Park Factor = (300+300)/(340+340) = 0.88

 

How does the fact Mariners have strong pitching staff and ass hitters change the park factor? Park factor is calculated on the Ratio. Which doesn't change because of quality of hitters

 

Say the opposite. Mariners score and give up 450 runs at home, and 510 on road. Legendary hitting, sucking pitching

 

Calculation is

 

park factor = (450+450)/(510+510) = 0.88

 

The spread between runs scored at home (low park factor) and away (higher park factor) will increase with a strong pitching staff and weak hitters. Conversely, the spread will decrease with weak pitching and strong hitting.

 

I could show this mathematically but I'm retired and can't be arsed.

[Jimcanuck]

The change in spread is because a lower park factor is to the pitchers advantage and a higher factor to the hitters advantage.

[Laika]

This is like watching a Flat Earthers quarterly meeting

[connorp]

This is like watching a Flat Earthers quarterly meeting

 

Stay in your lane, Poindexter. When someone gets offended, look for the Bat signal and do your thing.

[Jimcanuck]

This is like watching a Flat Earthers quarterly meeting

 

If you think it's a linear relationship even at the extremes, by definition you are the flat earther

[Spanky__99]

Suck on that one, Spanky. Who owned who last year, mate.

 

What? lol... you're an idiot.

[Spanky__99]

1000% they changed the formula. You can see on Wikipedia even it was changed. It did not include the teams road contests. I absolutely got the better of Tom Tango last year in our debate, and he got his ass back in the kitchen and then made some calls. You’re welcome

 

[John_Havok]

This is like watching a Flat Earthers quarterly meeting

 

That's no joke bro. They get idiots from all over the globe to those things

[Olerud363]

If you think it's a linear relationship even at the extremes, by definition you are the flat earther

 

Is there research on this? Intuitively it doesn't feel like there is a 'park' non-linearity in baseball.

 

One hand that could be feasible. There is this sort of theory that some players (like Cavan Biggio) have more of a hit when offensive environment changes than others. On the other hand maybe that is all just random.

 

I don't know, maybe some players could get hit more by park than others.

 

On the other hand it doesn't 'feel' like that happens.

 

Current Mariners pitchers have good numbers, but nothing mind blowing like if there was a park non-linearity.

Current Mariners hitters suck, but many (France, J-Rod) did fine in that park other years. Park non-linearity should hit them other years?

 

Or do you think skills decay and the drop is more in Seattle?

[Olerud363]

The spread between runs scored at home (low park factor) and away (higher park factor) will increase with a strong pitching staff and weak hitters. Conversely, the spread will decrease with weak pitching and strong hitting.

 

I could show this mathematically but I'm retired and can't be arsed.

 

Hypothetically if a pitching staff struck out everyone, walked no one. Gave up no contact except for once a game....

 

Gave up 1 100 mph flyball to centerfield at 27 degrees.

 

What would be the park factor of that team?

 

Let's say their home park was one of these parks where the ball didn't travel. They would never give up a run at home, and for this pitching staff

 

ERA at home = 0.00

ERA on road = 0.50 (sometimes that one flyball would leave sometimes not)

 

Are JimCanuck and Cornorp right afterall?