General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Jays24]

 

Even Turner is like "I can't be the last move" lol

[burlingtonbandit]

I was going off this - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/postseason-zips?enddate=2023-10-01&series=ALWCS2

 

Probability of winning may be different than the betting lines. I'm also sure there are other probability predictors.

 

FG probably didn't take HFA into effect. Because Vegas is a lot smarter than FG lol.

[jaysblue]

 

Even Turner is like "I can't be the last move" lol

 

Yeah some other pieces might fall into the Jays lap if they only require a one-year deal or a contract that includes an opt-out.

 

You would hope if Chapman or Bellinger only settle for a one-year deal, the Jays pounce on one of them at least. Would make a huge difference.

[mphenhef]

I did actually look at this earlier today. Baltimore, White Sox, Houston, Dodgers, Mets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, St Louis (4), Texas.

 

I'm surprised the Yanks with Verdugo, Judge and Soto aren't on this list.

[Spanky99]

I'm surprised the Yanks with Verdugo, Judge and Soto aren't on this list.

 

Verdugo's right there at 1.5

[deanmike]

If the Jays end up signing Bellinger somehow, there's basically only 1 way it can go in terms of roster ramifications and it isn't KK becomes the 4th OF

 

Jays would probably try to get off Springer's contract (I've seen this mentioned as a legit possibility by insiders but not since the Jays lost out on Ohtani) in a trade to free up AAV, and RF for Bellinger. Leadoff hitter role would be taken over by Bichette in this scenario.

 

Lineup vs RHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Biggio/Schneider

3B IKF/Biggio/Turner

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad

 

Lineup vs LHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad/Clement/Turner

2B Espinal/Clement

3B IKF/Turner/Espinal

SS Bichette

LF Schneider

CF Varsho

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad/non-catching C

[Laika]

If the Jays end up signing Bellinger somehow, there's basically only 1 way it can go in terms of roster ramifications and it isn't KK becomes the 4th OF

 

Jays would probably try to get off Springer's contract (I've seen this mentioned as a legit possibility by insiders but not since the Jays lost out on Ohtani) in a trade to free up AAV, and RF for Bellinger. Leadoff hitter role would be taken over by Bichette in this scenario.

 

Lineup vs RHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Biggio/Schneider

3B IKF/Biggio/Turner

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad

 

Lineup vs LHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad/Clement/Turner

2B Espinal/Clement

3B IKF/Turner/Espinal

SS Bichette

LF Schneider

CF Varsho

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad/non-catching C

 

I don't see how it makes much sense.

 

It's a push by projections; pretty close to swapping a 2.5 win OF for a 2.5 win OF

 

They'd be turning Springer's 3 year commitment into... whatever Bellinger settles for, probably 5+ years at same or higher AAV

 

They'd get much younger of course and you could argue that they would have more upside, but personally I see Springer as a safer bet to be good in 2024 based on basic stuff like maxEV and batted ball data.

 

And then likely losing something to get out of the Springer contract as he has negative value. So I bet they'd have to take another negative value contract back, or spend prospect capital.

[Brownie19]

I'm surprised the Yanks with Verdugo, Judge and Soto aren't on this list.

 

Verdugo sucks hairy balls and Soto is a DH.

[Brownie19]

If the Jays end up signing Bellinger somehow, there's basically only 1 way it can go in terms of roster ramifications and it isn't KK becomes the 4th OF

 

Jays would probably try to get off Springer's contract (I've seen this mentioned as a legit possibility by insiders but not since the Jays lost out on Ohtani) in a trade to free up AAV, and RF for Bellinger. Leadoff hitter role would be taken over by Bichette in this scenario.

 

Lineup vs RHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Biggio/Schneider

3B IKF/Biggio/Turner

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad

 

Lineup vs LHP:

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad/Clement/Turner

2B Espinal/Clement

3B IKF/Turner/Espinal

SS Bichette

LF Schneider

CF Varsho

RF Bellinger

DH Turner/Vlad/non-catching C

 

The 4th OF historically still gets like 450 PA's. There is room for Belly, Varsho, KK and Springer in this OF. Especially when you consider Belly crushed LHP last year. I'm optimistic Springer bounces back. I love that guy.

[Laika]

The 4th OF historically still gets like 450 PA's. There is room for Belly, Varsho, KK and Springer in this OF. Especially when you consider Belly crushed LHP last year.

 

Yeah I think they would just make KK the expensive 4th OF

 

But they aren't signing Bellinger

[Spanky99]

Yeah I think they would just make KK the expensive 4th OF

 

But they aren't signing Bellinger

 

I don't recall any insiders suggesting this Springer trade talk, do you? I'd think we'd have talked about this over the winter, Springer isn't tradeable.

[deanmike]

The 4th OF historically still gets like 450 PA's. There is room for Belly, Varsho, KK and Springer in this OF. Especially when you consider Belly crushed LHP last year. I'm optimistic Springer bounces back. I love that guy.

 

With what money Greeno19? Ownership won't authorize going deep into the 2nd threshold as a repeater tax team for effin Bellinger LOL. I believe the Rogers mouthpieces when it comes to budget.

[Laika]

I don't recall any insiders suggesting this Springer trade talk, do you? I'd think we'd have talked about this over the winter, Springer isn't tradeable.

 

It would be wild

 

He has negative $24M value per BTV. And he's a good personality fit for the organization.

[Jimcanuck]

With what money Greeno19? Ownership won't authorize going deep into the 2nd threshold as a repeater tax team for effin Bellinger LOL. I believe the Rogers mouthpieces when it comes to budget.

 

You work for Jays FO?

[L54]

Runs prevented also equals greater chance of success. A run prevented is a run scored.

 

The Jays probability of beating Minnesota last year was 55.6%. The Rays were a 99 win team and their probability of beating the Rangers was only 56.7%. Even the best teams in baseball are only expected to win their series like 60-63% of the time. If the best teams were expected to win their series like 80+%, then I'd agree that pushing and "going for it" more often would yield much better playoff success. But it really doesn't move needle a lot.

 

Buddy the Jays are already proficient in preventing runs. Sure I’d be okay with signing Trevor Bauer to further strengthen the run prevention but probably won’t happen. What they aren’t proficient in is scoring runs so what I said was it makes sense that fans would like to see them do more of that. Not a hard concept

[L54]

You work for Jays FO?

 

He does

[Jimcanuck]

He does

 

well that's depressing

[deanmike]

You work for Jays FO?

 

Read what I wrote Jiminycricket. I said Rogers mouthpieces, by that I mean guys like BNS/Shi/Zwelling, not myself. Unless you think I am a "let it all out burner" for one of these guys to let off all the negativity they gotta hold inside. I will neither confirm nor deny that if that is your accusation.

[BTS]

Otto Lopez DFA'd to make room for Rodriguez

[BTS]

Can anyone explain how/why Wes Parsons is hanging on to a roster spot?

[wilko]

Can anyone explain how/why Wes Parsons is hanging on to a roster spot?

 

I heard he's Atkin's wife's bull.

[Brownie19]

Can anyone explain how/why Wes Parsons is hanging on to a roster spot?

 

He has a right arm and a heartbeat. That is it.

[Spanky99]

Can anyone explain how/why Wes Parsons is hanging on to a roster spot?

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Jonn]

Was Wes Parsons the dude they called up to start instead of Kevin Gausman once the Blue Jays position was clinched lol?

[max silver]

He has a right arm and a heartbeat. That is it.

 

And options as well so he could be shuffled back and forth as needed.

[wilko]

Was Wes Parsons the dude they called up to start instead of Kevin Gausman once the Blue Jays position was clinched lol?

 

Yup, he got rocked lol.

[burlingtonbandit]

Don't think KK would be a good fit at all as a 4th OF if Bellinger was here given you'd have 3 LH OF. In late game PH opportunities you'd be wasting 2 sports by having a RHB PH for Varsho/KK and then the other taking over for them defensively.

 

Also really doubt Bellinger is signing with the Jays.

[wamco]

It would be wild

 

He has negative $24M value per BTV. And he's a good personality fit for the organization.

 

I definitely read it and I think Sorrow’s source may have 2nd it. I swap out springer for bellinger if someone took springer for free

[MikeM3]

Can anyone explain how/why Wes Parsons is hanging on to a roster spot?

 

Because he'll probably be starting games in May

[max silver]

Because he'll probably be starting games in May

 

In place of who exactly? Despite Manoah being baseball's worst starter last season the club waited until the final day of the season to give Parsons a major league start so he can't be particularly high up on the totem pole of depth starter options.