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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

Krylian

By Krylian
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Sprint speed should be incredibly accurate in small sample sizes though

 

Bo’s sprint speed feel off a cliff didn’t it? He’s just not fast

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Laika
Laika

Go find one post saying this   Try to find one   Go do it

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sprint speed should be incredibly accurate in small sample sizes though

 

Bo’s sprint speed feel off a cliff didn’t it? He’s just not fast

 

Half a second, it also goes over his luck, by the catchers pop times and throws, so basically saying he was running on the wrong catchers, and his GDP was also because of bad luck, variance, etc. Just thought it was interesting.

Omar All-Star

Omar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Sprint speed should be incredibly accurate in small sample sizes though

 

Bo’s sprint speed feel off a cliff didn’t it? He’s just not fast

 

He seemed to put on some bulk in 2022 vs 2021. A factor?

Jimcanuck Buffalo Bisons

Jimcanuck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Spanky is Bo's biggest fan boy.

 

Bo is going to FA, no doubt. The only thing might be possible is buy 1 or 2 FA years by paying him $25M a year now.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
And based on this information you don't see why he's going to be Omni-difficult?

 

Fair enough, but didn't we all know this? He's been stating his goals every year, and hasn't swayed away from that. It is what it is, he's a MLBPA poster boy on refuting the money players of his skillset should get paid, he's following that book. Remember, Manoah did the same thing last year. Just sayin'...

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Spanky is Bo's biggest fan boy.

 

Bo is going to FA, no doubt. The only thing might be possible is buy 1 or 2 FA years by paying him $25M a year now.

 

I'm a fanboy of a 5 win 24 year old SS, on our team? Yeah... :rolleyes:

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
This does not seem to be a stat that will stabalize very quickly, and the article seems to go out of its way to point out that running stats are essentially useless in a single season.

 

My post was kind of click baity to see if people actually read it to the end. We'll see this season... :P

 

His sprint speed has declined, but he's still fast.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Just to give the other side of the Bo argument...

 

Vlad made 7.9 for his first arb season in 2022.

 

Vlad's fWAR from 2019-2021 was 6.3 and it was practically all in 2021. He had to 2 crap years and 1 good year.

Bo's fWAR from 2019-2022 (they were able to get an extra season due to manipulating service time) is 11.8.

 

69 HRs vs Vlads 72. 239 RBIs vs Vlads 219. 127 wRC+ vs Vlad's 135. 262 runs scored vs Vlad's 209. 100 doubles vs Vlad's 68. .298 average to Vlad's .289. The gap in PA's is less than 300, so around half a season with Bo having 1727 vs Vlad's 1455. OBP .340 to Vlad's .339. SLG .491 to Vlad's .517

 

I used the stats that are traditionally used in arbitration as far as I can tell. Bo's number is not crazy and you could probably argue he could have filed for a higher #. As it stands the Jays have filed at 5m, him at 7.5 so the midpoint is 6.25m. All his side has to do is prove he is worth at least 6.251 million and he gets 7.5. I'd say he wins that case without a doubt.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
My post was kind of click baity to see if people actually read it to the end. We'll see this season... :P

 

His sprint speed has declined, but he's still fast.

 

He’s slower than Freddie Freeman and Shea Langeliers

Captain_Obvious College Ball

Captain_Obvious

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Just to give the other side of the Bo argument...

 

Vlad made 7.9 for his first arb season in 2022.

 

Vlad's fWAR from 2019-2021 was 6.3 and it was practically all in 2021. He had to 2 crap years and 1 good year.

Bo's fWAR from 2019-2022 (they were able to get an extra season due to manipulating service time) is 11.8.

 

69 HRs vs Vlads 72. 239 RBIs vs Vlads 219. 127 wRC+ vs Vlad's 135. 262 runs scored vs Vlad's 209. 100 doubles vs Vlad's 68. .298 average to Vlad's .289. The gap in PA's is less than 300, so around half a season with Bo having 1727 vs Vlad's 1455. OBP .340 to Vlad's .339. SLG .491 to Vlad's .517

 

I used the stats that are traditionally used in arbitration as far as I can tell. Bo's number is not crazy and you could probably argue he could have filed for a higher #. As it stands the Jays have filed at 5m, him at 7.5 so the midpoint is 6.25m. All his side has to do is prove he is worth at least 6.251 million and he gets 7.5. I'd say he wins that case without a doubt.

 

Pretty sure that is not how it works. Most recent year stats matter most for arbitration. Bo's first two years do not matter as much.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Pretty sure that is not how it works. Most recent year stats matter most for arbitration. Bo's first two years do not matter as much.

 

Most recent year matters, but it's not the be all end all argument.

 

The primary criteria are the quality of the player’s contribution to the team during the past season, the length and consistency of the player’s career contribution, the player’s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries, the player’s injury history, and the team’s recent performance.

 

 

Given that criteria, check out Vlad's -.2 fWAR season, followed by a 0.2 fWAR season, follwed by his 6.3 fWAR MVP caliber season and ending up getting 7.9 million

 

Then compare Bo's first 4 seasons. Basically everything is a wash except Bo is was FAR more consistent in the seasons leading up, and Vlad had the higher previous year value. Comparitive baseball salaries definitely would favor a SS over a 1b/DH.

 

To look at all the numbers I posted above, Bo asking for 7.5 is actually light IMO. He should have filed for 8.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Side note from the negotiations, I heard that Bo and Atkins were sitting across from each other and Atkins slid over his offer.

 

Bo tried to throw it back and it ended up in the stands.

Captain_Obvious College Ball

Captain_Obvious

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Most recent year matters, but it's not the be all end all argument.

 

The primary criteria are the quality of the player’s contribution to the team during the past season, the length and consistency of the player’s career contribution, the player’s past compensation, comparative baseball salaries, the player’s injury history, and the team’s recent performance.

 

 

Given that criteria, check out Vlad's -.2 fWAR season, followed by a 0.2 fWAR season, follwed by his 6.3 fWAR MVP caliber season and ending up getting 7.9 million

 

Then compare Bo's first 4 seasons. Basically everything is a wash except Bo is was FAR more consistent in the seasons leading up, and Vlad had the higher previous year value. Comparitive baseball salaries definitely would favor a SS over a 1b/DH.

 

To look at all the numbers I posted above, Bo asking for 7.5 is actually light IMO. He should have filed for 8.

 

It is not that at all. There is actually a set formula that is used to approximate arbitration value and and it has nothing to do with your post. It used to be the Elias thingy back in the days and it might have gotten updated, but arbitrators will be using it to determine which side is closer. Based on 3rd party estimates (5.7M-6.1M), the jays are comfortably closer.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
It is not that at all. There is actually a set formula that is used to approximate arbitration value and and it has nothing to do with your post. It used to be the Elias thingy back in the days and it might have gotten updated, but arbitrators will be using it to determine which side is closer. Based on 3rd party estimates (5.7M-6.1M), the jays are comfortably closer.

 

If it was as simple as plugging numbers into a forumla, these things would never go to arbitration since the agents would have figured out the formula years ago. It's not that simple.

 

Yes, MLBTR uses a formula to project what they think a guy will get and in the past it's been fairly accurate. It has him at 6.1 million. Lets assume for the moment that it's right. All Bo's camp has to do is convince an arbitrator that he is worth an additional 125,000 and he wins.

Captain_Obvious College Ball

Captain_Obvious

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
If it was as simple as plugging numbers into a forumla, these things would never go to arbitration since the agents would have figured out the formula years ago. It's not that simple.

 

I disagree with this. The vast majority of arbitration cases are in fact determined without a hearing. The formula is not known (3rd party), but good approximations exist. The Jays are much closer to those approximations.

 

Bo has never been a guy who looked at data and facts. If he did, he would have realized that he sucks ass at SS and moved to 2B by now.

John_Havok MVP

John_Havok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I disagree with this. The vast majority of arbitration cases are in fact determined without a hearing. The formula is not known (3rd party), but good approximations exist. The Jays are much closer to those approximations.

 

Bo has never been a guy who looked at data and facts. If he did, he would have realized that he sucks ass at SS and moved to 2B by now.

 

Firstly, It would be Bo's agent doing all of this, not Bo himself. Sure, the agent would be explaining it to him, but it's not like Bo is sitting down with a calculator trying to figure s*** out. He's likely looking at the numbers his agent has given him and is perfectly fine with what's happening because he believes he's worth more than 6.1 million. I would guess that the # they filed at was based on a very educated guess at what they jays were planning to offer and where they had the mid point pegged at.

 

Regardless, I hope they settle, most players that have ever gone to a hearing and listened to their team bash them for an hour say it's a terrible thing to go through.

Captain_Obvious College Ball

Captain_Obvious

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Firstly, It would be Bo's agent doing all of this, not Bo himself. Sure, the agent would be explaining it to him, but it's not like Bo is sitting down with a calculator trying to figure s*** out. He's likely looking at the numbers his agent has given him and is perfectly fine with what's happening because he believes he's worth more than 6.1 million. I would guess that the # they filed at was based on a very educated guess at what they jays were planning to offer and where they had the mid point pegged at.

 

We running in circles here. Let's agree to disagree. The Blue Jays are much more likely to win the case in my opinion. That being said, if I were the Jays, I would have filed at a slightly higher number (5.2M) just to make sure I win with a 99% certainty.

Jimcanuck Buffalo Bisons

Jimcanuck

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
We running in circles here. Let's agree to disagree. The Blue Jays are much more likely to win the case in my opinion. That being said, if I were the Jays, I would have filed at a slightly higher number (5.2M) just to make sure I win with a 99% certainty.

 

Genius! Send a tweet to Atkins

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
Fair enough, but didn't we all know this? He's been stating his goals every year, and hasn't swayed away from that. It is what it is, he's a MLBPA poster boy on refuting the money players of his skillset should get paid, he's following that book. Remember, Manoah did the same thing last year. Just sayin'...

 

Ya...I think most expected it. But I didn't think we'd necessarily see it this early...during arbitration. Thought the difficulty would start when the real money conversation started.

wamco Draft Eligible

wamco

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

The fangraphs article on Bo’s base running was interesting. Flew under the radar for me.

I’d love to see him and biggio bounce back to 20sb level

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