2022 Blue Jays Post Season Discussion Thread!

[Grant77]

Agreed about the playoffs being magnified, and some luck will be huge, it's a crapshoot and why the best team doesn't always win. Can't wait for tomorrow. Go Jays Go!

 

The Gurriel and Espy injuries suck, they could still be available, who knows, I usually agree with our teams decisions, I'd also like to see Moreno or Biggio in LF over Tapia. These guys get on base, Tapia does not.

 

The team's actions make it kind of clear that they don't like Biggio's outfield defense, but I see a guy who is at least as good as Tapia in that regard, if not better.

[Spanky99]

The team's actions make it kind of clear that they don't like Biggio's outfield defense, but I see a guy who is at least as good as Tapia in that regard, if not better.

 

Yeah, that's clearly my opine on the starting roster, who knows what they do. They seem to love Tapia for some weird reason. Hopefully Gurriel is back.

[Olerud363]

Facts don't matter if they don't support Olerud's original incorrect premise.

 

I think you make a good point. Of course extra base hits are one of the biggest factors in winning, but all teams can do that at this point.

 

Teams are similarly talented in the playoffs and games are closer because of it. Things like advancing runners, taking extra bases, making defensive plays, etc. are magnified to some extent.

 

There isn't a stat for it, but anyone who has watched playoff baseball knows that the formula is a little different in the playoffs.

 

My premise, which is correct is that big things matter more than little things.

 

It's ridiculous that any Blue Jays fan over 40 would believe this ********. You must have been under 5 when the Jays first won the world series.

 

From 85 to 93 we watched 8 years of playoffs and playoff races and I don't recall a single memorable scrappy play. Starting in 85 George Brett kicked their ass, in 89 Henderson and Canseco (5th deck), in 91 Kirby Pucket. In 92 Alomar's big homer and f***ing killing the As like 8-1 in the last game. Ed f***ing Sprague. Molitor hitting .500. Carter's homerun. Bautista bat flip. Edwin walk off.

 

Every memorable moment is a big play, an extra base hit, a homerun by a good player. I don't remember any scrappy ******** in the history of this franchise's playoff games.

 

You know what I do remember. The scrappiest f***ing thing I remember? The fastest mother-f***er I remember? Otis f***INGS Nixon. He is fast. He is a bunter. And where did that f***ing get them?

[HERPDERP]

I predict this series will come down to the bullpens.

 

Pitching is equally matched for #1 and #2, but the Mariners beat the Jays on depth.

 

Relief corps heavily favor the Mariners

[Olerud363]

Facts don't matter if they don't support Olerud's original incorrect premise.

 

I think you make a good point. Of course extra base hits are one of the biggest factors in winning, but all teams can do that at this point.

 

Teams are similarly talented in the playoffs and games are closer because of it. Things like advancing runners, taking extra bases, making defensive plays, etc. are magnified to some extent.

 

There isn't a stat for it, but anyone who has watched playoff baseball knows that the formula is a little different in the playoffs.

 

Here is my basic point.

 

Replaceable. Some players are more replaceable than others because talent is a pyramid. You guys are claiming 2 things.

 

1., That Haggerty is unique, and can't be replaced with a combination of other players including Trammell.

2. That his unique skills would have a big impact on a short series.

 

Both are untrue.

 

1. Haggerty can be replaced and will be by Trammell and others.

2. It's unlikely that the series will be decided by baserunning or a pinch hit appearance, but if it is somebody at least 95% as talented as Haggerty will have that moment.

 

So how much does this reduce the Mariners changed of winning the series? Let's say they were 47% before, I'd say they are 46.8% now.

 

Is that a ******** estimate? I don't know. I'd say there is like a 2% chance a game arising where Haggerty would have a big moment, and who-ever replaces him will be almost as good.

[Olerud363]

I predict this series will come down to the bullpens.

 

Pitching is equally matched for #1 and #2, but the Mariners beat the Jays on depth.

 

Relief corps heavily favor the Mariners

 

I don't think it heavily favors them. Though glancing at the stats they do have more swing and miss.

 

I think it will come down to big plays by big players. Both teams score on extra base hits. Jays are a better contact hitting team, Mariners walk more, both are power hitting teams equal in homeruns.

 

As in many games the big play will probably be a big extra base hit early in the game.

[Spanky99]

Olerud's PIST!!!!!!!!

[Olerud363]

I don't think it heavily favors them. Though glancing at the stats they do have more swing and miss.

 

I think it will come down to big plays by big players. Both teams score on extra base hits. Jays are a better contact hitting team, Mariners walk more, both are power hitting teams equal in homeruns.

 

As in many games the big play will probably be a big extra base hit early in the game.

 

Looking over recent Mariners box scores it seems Winker and Santana weren't playing in the same games much. So Santana replaces Winker, Winker is better but they do the same things sort of.

 

Santana, despite hitting like .195 is an average hitter because he walks, hits for a bit of power and league average is like a .310 on base and .390 slugging now.

 

In the July series didn't he win 2-1 run games with 2 run homeruns late in the game on back to back days? I guess people don't remember the homeruns only the scrappy momenmts.

 

If Santana is up in the 6th with 2 out and 2 on is it time for Zach Pop?

 

Santana has already homered against Manoah and Cimber. Would Zach Pop's 98 mile sinker be a guaranteeed ground out for the old man or would you go Bass, not wanting to risk the ground ball getting threw?

[Laika]

What do you guys think "magnified" even means in this context, as it relates to small ball s***?

 

In my opinion it just means WHEN those things lead to wins or losses they are impactful and you remember them. I don't think it means that those things are more important on balance that the big/core/fundamental s*** like hitting dingers and striking other people out. I don't think it means that scrappy s*** becomes suddenly more valuable in the playoffs, in terms of win production.

 

Stealing a key base CAN be massive but in most series or playoff games there is literally no game situation where it matters. It CAN also be massive in specific regular season games of course.

 

 

Like, Bradley Zimmer could win the Jays a series with a stolen base or a good defensive play late and close. They are probably putting him on the roster just in case such an opportunity arises. But if he broke his leg this morning it would not f***ing matter - the Jays playoff WS would maybe go down 0.001%, if that.

 

As usual, Olerud is completely right and nobody should fade him.

[Laika]

Regular season totals (TOR / SEA)

 

HITS --> 1464 / 1237

XBH --> 519 / 445

BB --> 500 / 596 (SEA also has edge in HBP)

SB:CS --> 67:35 / 83:27

BsR --> -11.4 / -11.4

Runs --> 775 / 690

UZR --> -32.5 / 2.2

Errors --> 82 / 69

 

Honestly pitching looks like a wash to me.

 

In all likelihood the games wont be super close and the core players from one team will win it by hitting huge dingers or throwing gems.

 

BUT if the games are close and Toronto wins it's probably from their pure hitting ability. They are way better at getting hits and extra base hits.

 

BUT if the games are close and Seattle wins it's probably from some combination of patience, timely hits, and maybe sounder defense and an important stolen base or two?

Edited October 6, 2022 by Laika

[wilko]

Regular season totals (TOR / SEA)

 

HITS --> 1464 / 1237

XBH --> 519 / 445

BB --> 596 / 500 (SEA also has edge in HBP)

SB:CS --> 67:35 / 83:27

BsR --> -11.4 / -11.4

Runs --> 775 / 690

UZR --> -32.5 / 2.2

Errors --> 82 / 69

 

Honestly pitching looks like a wash to me.

 

In all likelihood the games wont be super close and the core players from one team will win it by hitting huge dingers or throwing gems.

 

BUT if the games are close and Toronto wins it's probably from their pure hitting ability. They are way better at getting hits and extra base hits.

 

BUT if the games are close and Seattle wins it's probably from some combination of patience, timely hits, and maybe sounder defense and an important stolen base or two?

 

Jays will lose because sliders down and away.

[Laika]

Jays will lose because sliders down and away.

 

I went to the future and this is the heatmap against from the Jays playoffs

 

[Olerud363]

What do you guys think "magnified" even means in this context, as it relates to small ball s***?

 

In my opinion it just means WHEN those things lead to wins or losses they are impactful and you remember them. I don't think it means that those things are more important on balance that the big/core/fundamental s*** like hitting dingers and striking other people out. I don't think it means that scrappy s*** becomes suddenly more valuable in the playoffs, in terms of win production.

 

Stealing a key base CAN be massive but in most series or playoff games there is literally no game situation where it matters. It CAN also be massive in specific regular season games of course.

 

 

Like, Bradley Zimmer could win the Jays a series with a stolen base or a good defensive play late and close. They are probably putting him on the roster just in case such an opportunity arises. But if he broke his leg this morning it would not f***ing matter - the Jays playoff WS would maybe go down 0.001%, if that.

 

As usual, Olerud is completely right and nobody should fade him.

 

Not completely right. I first said that Winker was easily replaceable which he probably isn't. I also didn't realize that Haggerty is a really good base stealer.

 

I just think the guys who will replace their playing time aren't that different. I don't know what is really going on with Haggerty, Trammell, Winker and Santana.

 

Stats scouting, and just remembering the July Series I think Santana is only a slight downgrade and could still have a big hit. I think Tramell is only a slight downgrade and could run the bases OK.

 

What do I know. Never watched these players. Maybe Santana was lucky in July, is old as f***, is done and won't get the key walk that Winker would have. Maybe Tramell is a terrible baserunner.

[Jimcanuck]

What do you guys think "magnified" even means in this context, as it relates to small ball s***?

 

In my opinion it just means WHEN those things lead to wins or losses they are impactful and you remember them. I don't think it means that those things are more important on balance that the big/core/fundamental s*** like hitting dingers and striking other people out. I don't think it means that scrappy s*** becomes suddenly more valuable in the playoffs, in terms of win production.

 

Stealing a key base CAN be massive but in most series or playoff games there is literally no game situation where it matters. It CAN also be massive in specific regular season games of course.

 

 

Like, Bradley Zimmer could win the Jays a series with a stolen base or a good defensive play late and close. They are probably putting him on the roster just in case such an opportunity arises. But if he broke his leg this morning it would not f***ing matter - the Jays playoff WS would maybe go down 0.001%, if that.

 

As usual, Olerud is completely right and nobody should fade him.

 

Of course he's right. The idea that the series will be won by the down roster guys is silly.

[jaysblue]

What do you guys think "magnified" even means in this context, as it relates to small ball s***?

 

In my opinion it just means WHEN those things lead to wins or losses they are impactful and you remember them. I don't think it means that those things are more important on balance that the big/core/fundamental s*** like hitting dingers and striking other people out. I don't think it means that scrappy s*** becomes suddenly more valuable in the playoffs, in terms of win production.

 

Stealing a key base CAN be massive but in most series or playoff games there is literally no game situation where it matters. It CAN also be massive in specific regular season games of course.

 

 

Like, Bradley Zimmer could win the Jays a series with a stolen base or a good defensive play late and close. They are probably putting him on the roster just in case such an opportunity arises. But if he broke his leg this morning it would not f***ing matter - the Jays playoff WS would maybe go down 0.001%, if that.

 

As usual, Olerud is completely right and nobody should fade him.

 

In a short series, pretty much everything in a game is "magnified" at any point whether in the first inning or ninth inning. Whether it's a strikeout, walk, pitcher leaves a bad pitch hanging over the plate, a home run, an RBI, a defensive play or miscue, a stolen base, baserunning, a catcher blocking the plate etc. Can go on and on.

[Spanky99]

What do you guys think "magnified" even means in this context, as it relates to small ball s***?

 

In my opinion it just means WHEN those things lead to wins or losses they are impactful and you remember them. I don't think it means that those things are more important on balance that the big/core/fundamental s*** like hitting dingers and striking other people out. I don't think it means that scrappy s*** becomes suddenly more valuable in the playoffs, in terms of win production.

 

Stealing a key base CAN be massive but in most series or playoff games there is literally no game situation where it matters. It CAN also be massive in specific regular season games of course.

 

 

Like, Bradley Zimmer could win the Jays a series with a stolen base or a good defensive play late and close. They are probably putting him on the roster just in case such an opportunity arises. But if he broke his leg this morning it would not f***ing matter - the Jays playoff WS would maybe go down 0.001%, if that.

 

As usual, Olerud is completely right and nobody should fade him.

 

That's what I was referring to. Idk.

[John_Havok]

Regular season totals (TOR / SEA)

 

HITS --> 1464 / 1237

XBH --> 519 / 445

BB --> 596 / 500 (SEA also has edge in HBP)

SB:CS --> 67:35 / 83:27

BsR --> -11.4 / -11.4

Runs --> 775 / 690

UZR --> -32.5 / 2.2

Errors --> 82 / 69

 

Honestly pitching looks like a wash to me.

 

In all likelihood the games wont be super close and the core players from one team will win it by hitting huge dingers or throwing gems.

 

BUT if the games are close and Toronto wins it's probably from their pure hitting ability. They are way better at getting hits and extra base hits.

 

BUT if the games are close and Seattle wins it's probably from some combination of patience, timely hits, and maybe sounder defense and an important stolen base or two?

 

I'd say starting pitching is a wash, but Seattle probably has the edge in the pen.

 

To answer a previous question about things being magnified... I think most people mean that anytime anything happens in the playoffs, its more impactful since the playoffs are all really a set of very small smaple sizes with large potential variances. It's not some 162 game marathon where a runner can flip their shoe off in the first few minutes, stop for a second or two, put it back on and keep going and have the entire race to make up those seconds. It's a sprint where if you lose your shoe out of the block, you B f***ed.

 

Thats why people harp on the small ball thing for the playoffs, because in those scenarios where a team does execute the things that get them that 1 run, it means more in the small sample size. It's no longer about number crunching a 162 game season where giving away 100 outs is incredibly stupid, but rather giving up 1 or 2 outs out of 54 (possibly 81 if it goes 3) to really roll the dice since the payoff is bigger.

[wilko]

I went to the future and this is the heatmap against from the Jays playoffs

 

 

 

That heatmap looks sus.

[Spanky99]

Regular season totals (TOR / SEA)

 

HITS --> 1464 / 1237

XBH --> 519 / 445

BB --> 596 / 500 (SEA also has edge in HBP)

SB:CS --> 67:35 / 83:27

BsR --> -11.4 / -11.4

Runs --> 775 / 690

UZR --> -32.5 / 2.2

Errors --> 82 / 69

 

Honestly pitching looks like a wash to me.

 

In all likelihood the games wont be super close and the core players from one team will win it by hitting huge dingers or throwing gems.

 

BUT if the games are close and Toronto wins it's probably from their pure hitting ability. They are way better at getting hits and extra base hits.

 

BUT if the games are close and Seattle wins it's probably from some combination of patience, timely hits, and maybe sounder defense and an important stolen base or two?

 

Jays got this, bruh, regarding defense, the Jays are better by Statcast OAA and DRS, what defensive metric should we be really looking at?

[Olerud363]

I think I am going nuts because this Seattle team is actually a old school walks and homers 'Moneyball' team and no one seams to know it.

 

Does anyone realize what their stats would like if they like, it they played in 1999 in the Ballpark at Arlington or something?

 

They have some depth. Supposedly Kelenic is like the worst player in major league history. However his 3 true outcomes data isn't that different the Julio Rodriquez who is the best player ever projected forward with 498 million dollar contract.

 

I'm not saying Kelenic is as good as Rodriquez. Not even maybe half as good. Maybe 40% as good. So Rodriquez is like a 6 WAR player, and it could be that Kelenic is actually a 2.5 WAR player right now, but has a freakish .158 batting average.

 

The combination of the best pitchers year since 196something and the Mariners poor hitters park has made their batting averages look freakish, and people are missing how much depth they have.

 

Maybe Kelenic really is a .150 hitter, but I've never seen a guy with 20 homers, 50 walks and 160 ks in 500 at bats really be a .160 hitter..

 

Maybe Kelenic was just popping it up too much, or too many grounders...

but he was close...

he was close...

nobodyh believed he was close...

but he was...

and now with the injuries he might play and be OK, because he was close but now Kelenic has arrived!

[Spanky99]

In a short series, pretty much everything in a game is "magnified" at any point whether in the first inning or ninth inning. Whether it's a strikeout, walk, pitcher leaves a bad pitch hanging over the plate, a home run, an RBI, a defensive play or miscue, a stolen base, baserunning, a catcher blocking the plate etc. Can go on and on.

 

Exactly, everything is magnified, whether it's a bomb from Vladdy or a pinch hit by Espy, it's really not hard to understand.

[Olerud363]

Like what if there was a Mariners version of LTBF and he's been telling everybody that Kelenic is close for the last 2 years?

 

Nobody took him seriously, but he was right. And with the injuries Kelenic now has a shot to show how close he was.

 

If that is the case Hopefully since Vladdy has been really close too, Vladdy will show now, and will hit several 3 run bombs to counter...

[Olerud363]

Not that I know s*** about Kelenic and what his problem is, just saying he is .160 hitter with the secondary skills to be useful if he can hit .220.

 

Can he? I think most players can hit .220 except for modern day Bellinger, but maybe Kelenic is in that category with Bellinger.

 

Just saying the Mariners have weird depth, with like Winker their 13th best according to fangraphs, but everyone's batting average sucks.

[Jimcanuck]

Kelenic's issue is between the ears. He will settle down and put up better numbers...... someday.

[John_Havok]

Jays got this, bruh, regarding defense, the Jays are better by Statcast OAA and DRS, what defensive metric should we be really looking at?

 

I cant trust UZR when it comes to the Jays because UZr does NOT factor defensive shifts into play and the Jays shift more than any other team.

[jaysblue]

Kelenic's issue is between the ears. He will settle down and put up better numbers...... someday.

 

Trade Nate Pearson for him in the offseason.

[Omar]

Exactly, everything is magnified, whether it's a bomb from Vladdy or a pinch hit by Espy, it's really not hard to understand.

 

Errors get magnified like crazy. Elvis Andrus comes to mind. Lets hope the Jays don’t have any brain cramps and play a clean game.

[Laika]

Kelenic's issue is between the ears. He will settle down and put up better numbers...... someday.

 

I thought it was a literal hole in his swing

 

like 2022 Cody Bellinger

[Grant77]

Here is my basic point.

 

Replaceable. Some players are more replaceable than others because talent is a pyramid. You guys are claiming 2 things.

 

1., That Haggerty is unique, and can't be replaced with a combination of other players including Trammell.

2. That his unique skills would have a big impact on a short series.

 

Both are untrue.

 

1. Haggerty can be replaced and will be by Trammell and others.

2. It's unlikely that the series will be decided by baserunning or a pinch hit appearance, but if it is somebody at least 95% as talented as Haggerty will have that moment.

 

So how much does this reduce the Mariners changed of winning the series? Let's say they were 47% before, I'd say they are 46.8% now.

 

Is that a ******** estimate? I don't know. I'd say there is like a 2% chance a game arising where Haggerty would have a big moment, and who-ever replaces him will be almost as good.

 

Nobody claimed these things. You're taking these innocuous, uncontroversial statements and using hyperbole to blow them out of proportion.

 

Haggerty isn't unique, but they don't have a pinch hitter, runner, or fielder of the same quality to add to the roster, let alone a player with all 3 of those qualities. Trammell can field fairly well, but is a below average runner and awful hitter.

 

Games are closer in the playoffs and benches are used more often than in the regular season. The loss of a key bench piece that fills multiple roles is more likely to hurt them now than it would have in April. To what degree I'll leave that for others to decide.

 

Note that none of this is even remotely untrue or controversial, but your response will contend that I claimed he's a 9 WAR player or something. There was really no reason to even discuss this beyond 'oh hey, a good player was hurt and now the Blue Jay's have a better chance of winning'.

[jaysblue]

Scherzer 5.5 O/U for K's against the Padres (-120)

 

Darvish 5.5 O/U for K's against the Mets (+110)

 

Take the over on both?