The Jays can only afford 8-10 more losses in 2021 | Basic schedule analysis update

[TwistedLogic]

It is September 1st and we are down to five teams in the Wild Card picture.

 

I have listed these five teams below, alongside the records they need the rest of the way to make it to 92 wins by the end of the season.

 

Record needed to get to 92 wins:

 

- Yankees: 16-14

 

- Red Sox: 17-11

 

- Athletics: 19-11

 

- Mariners: 21-8

 

- Blue Jays: 23-8

 

Notes:

 

- The list above is ordered in difficulty to get to 92 wins.

 

- The Yankees are looking very safe for the playoffs. They'd have to play below .500 ball the rest of the way to miss out and that looks unlikely based on how easy their remaining schedule is.

 

- Every other team has a fairly tough road to the playoffs. The easiest path after the Yankees is the Red Sox, and they still need play 17-11, which is .607 baseball.

 

- Barring a collapse across the board, the Blue Jays essentially need to play over .700 baseball in September to make the playoffs. Chances are, they can only afford 8-10 more losses maximum.

 

Remaining Blue Jays Schedule:

 

The Blue Jays have 31 games remaining this season. This is how those games shake out:

 

- 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles

 

- 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins

 

- 7 games vs the New York Yankees

 

- 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays

 

- 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics

[RustyTrombone]

Pretty much need to sweep the Orioles and Twins to have a shot.

[Stangstag]

I’d say if Springer is out again there’s no way they hit 90 wins. If he’s still ok and in the lineup then MAYBE, but a lot of things have to break right with the bullpen.

[FantasyNewb]

Yeah, it's over. Pack it in.

[Carlos Danger]

7 games vs the New York Yankees

 

- 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays

 

13 games @ 500 win % vs Yankees/Rays = 6-7 losses just here.

[Spanky99]

Glimmer of hope.

[Brownie19]

Might be time to start the "Offseason Discussion" thread...

[TwistedLogic]

[Krylian]

Have the Jays had a 23-8 run at any point this season yet?

[Spanky99]

I really hope Springer is telling the staff the truth. We need him, but we also need him for the next 4 years.

[Spanky99]

Have the Jays had a 23-8 run at any point this season yet?

 

No, no way. The best we had was the homestand coming back to, TO.

[wilko]

I really hope Springer is telling the staff the truth. We need him, but we also need him for the next 4 years.

 

He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.

[TwistedLogic]

The following path gets the Blue Jays to 90 wins. Not a guaranteed wild card but close:

 

- 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles: 6-2

- 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins: 5-2

- 7 games vs the New York Yankees: 4-3

- 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays: 4-2

- 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics: 2-1

 

If none of the teams above the Jays catch fire and something like 88 wins happens to be the # for the second wild card, you can afford an extra two losses above.

 

It's definitely still possible if they can handle the Orioles and Twins.

[Spanky99]

He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.

 

Yeah, he winced and shook out his leg, right after he put on the brakes. It was clear as day.

[Spanky99]

The following path gets the Blue Jays to 90 wins. Not a guaranteed wild card but close:

 

- 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles: 6-2

- 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins: 5-2

- 7 games vs the New York Yankees: 4-3

- 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays: 4-2

- 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics: 2-1

 

If none of the teams above the Jays catch fire and something like 88 wins happens to be the # for the second wild card, you can afford an extra two losses above.

 

It's definitely still possible if they can handle the Orioles and Twins.

 

I see it as the other way around, if they take care of the teams in front of you (as you posted).

 

Good posts.

[TwistedLogic]

He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.

 

He looked to be in pain in his earlier at-bat too. I noticed him wincing on every swing that torqued his knee and then he almost looked like he was limping back to the dugout when he struck out.

[Spanky99]

He looked to be in pain in his earlier at-bat too. I noticed him wincing on every swing that torqued his knee and then he almost looked like he was limping back to the dugout when he struck out.

 

Yeah, he's not close to 100%.

[Brownie19]

He looked to be in pain when he was on 2B yesterday... Not good.

 

I saw a clip of him grimacing while scoring in his first game back. I think it was on the hit that Bo ran through the stop sign and still scored....Springer was just trotting home with no play and looked to be in pain.

 

I have to hope the doctors have explained he can't do further damage to it and it's simply a matter of him playing through pain or not.....otherwise - this is f***ing stupid.

[Carlos Danger]

The following path gets the Blue Jays to 90 wins. Not a guaranteed wild card but close:

 

- 8 games vs the Baltimore Orioles: 6-2

- 7 games vs the Minnesota Twins: 5-2

- 7 games vs the New York Yankees: 4-3

- 6 games vs the Tampa Bay Rays: 4-2

- 3 games vs the Oakland Athletics: 2-1

If none of the teams above the Jays catch fire and something like 88 wins happens to be the # for the second wild card, you can afford an extra two losses above.

 

It's definitely still possible if they can handle the Orioles and Twins.

 

I unfortunately think 4-2 vs the Rays is extremely optimistic, to the point that it really changes the whole equation.

[Stangstag]

 

Ah, so this will be his last game of the season I suspect.

 

This scenario seems extremely similar to the first time he came back, played 3 games against the Braves, then went back on the DL.

[DigitalRock]

It's over....

[JaysAllMighty]

I'll be cheering, watching each game and hoping for a miracle.

 

At least they're in the hunt and they are not meaningless games... yet.

[InvincibleTiger]

We play Tampa for 6 games. We are losing 4 of 6 right there

[Spanky99]

I'll be cheering, watching each game and hoping for a miracle.

 

At least they're in the hunt and they are not meaningless games... yet.

 

Yup, let it play out, until the math says no... GO JAYS GO!!!

[glory]

Glad to see the Jays throwing caution to the wind with a guy they are paying big money to for the next five years, who is already in his 30's. Not asking for trouble at all.

[Stangstag]

Glad to see the Jays throwing caution to the wind with a guy they are paying big money to for the next five years, who is already in his 30's. Not asking for trouble at all.

 

Hey when you have a 9.3% chance at making the 2nd wildcard spot with a month left to go, you go hard.

[TwistedLogic]

One win down.

[bones10]

Glad to see the Jays throwing caution to the wind with a guy they are paying big money to for the next five years, who is already in his 30's. Not asking for trouble at all.

 

He has 6 months off, relax.

[Deadpool]

Have the Jays had a 23-8 run at any point this season yet?

 

Nope, guess they're due!

[glory]

He has 6 months off, relax.

 

You don't want him to play while injured and risk either re-injury to the same body part or hurt something else while compensating. Yes, he'll have an entire off season to rest, but that doesn't mean another injury/re-injury wouldn't negatively impact him in some way.

 

For a hail mary run at a 2nd WC spot where the winning team gets Gerrit Cole at Yankee Stadium, you really have to weigh the pro's and con's carefully on a long term investment like this.