GDT (2/3) | Blue Jays (62-52) @ Mariners (61-55) | August 14 — 10:10 PM

[RobinThicc]

On first blush it looks like a broken leg, but there's no way he walks off the field even with a limp, so maybe it isn't as bad as it looks, maybe that's just wishful thinking. I was initially concerned about the achilles, all things considered I would take a break over the achilles.

 

Broken leg is super dramatic. It looks like a sprain.

[Brownie19]

Brutal loss...this team doesn't have the clutch gene.

 

Pretty sure the Jays have one of the best team averages with runners on scoring position this year...

[Signal]

Pretty sure the Jays have one of the best team averages with runners on scoring position this year...

 

True. But they do not score a lot of runs late in close games. Jays are very average to below average when it comes to scoring late in games. So while it does not appear on the surface true that the Jays are not clutch because of their batting average with runners on is very strong, it could be argued that yes, they are not clutch because of their inability to manufacture runs late in close games.

 

Personally, I think some of the Jays players might want to consider not always swinging for the fence in some of these circumstances but instead attempting to cut down on their swing and allow the ball to travel and focus on getting solid contact and going the other way with the ball. I suggest this simply because in those close games in the late innings, what they are doing now is not working. IF they were simply average at winning and losing in close games, they would be defending a playoff spot right now instead of having to chase for one.

[Brownie19]

True. But they do not score a lot of runs late in close games. Jays are very average to below average when it comes to scoring late in games. So while it does not appear on the surface true that the Jays are not clutch because of their batting average with runners on is very strong, it could be argued that yes, they are not clutch because of their inability to manufacture runs late in close games.

 

Personally, I think some of the Jays players might want to consider not always swinging for the fence in some of these circumstances but instead attempting to cut down on their swing and allow the ball to travel and focus on getting solid contact and going the other way with the ball. I suggest this simply because in those close games in the late innings, what they are doing now is not working. IF they were simply average at winning and losing in close games, they would be defending a playoff spot right now instead of having to chase for one.

 

Yeah - you're going to need stats to prove that. You're also going to have to explain how sample size plays a factor and disprove it simply as random luck. We have the second best offense in baseball by wRC+ (5th by runs and only a few behind 2nd place) and we have the 2nd lowest K% in baseball. We also have the 9th highest oppo % in baseball. You sound like Buck when you say they should cut down their swings, but how do you know they aren't? There are several reasons we have a bad record in close games. s***** bullpen (for part/most of the year), below average manager, below average defense and base running as a team and of course the randomness of baseball.

[Spanky99]

Yeah - you're going to need stats to prove that. You're also going to have to explain how sample size plays a factor and disprove it simply as random luck. We have the second best offense in baseball by wRC+ (5th by runs and only a few behind 2nd place) and we have the 2nd lowest K% in baseball. We also have the 9th highest oppo % in baseball. You sound like Buck when you say they should cut down their swings, but how do you know they aren't? There are several reasons we have a bad record in close games. s***** bullpen (for part/most of the year), below average manager, below average defense and base running as a team and of course the randomness of baseball.

 

He's right about our offence after 7 and later, it's brutal. Last I saw it was a wRC+ 87 or something gross, but we are one of the best hitting teams with RISP and RISP w 2 out. So many variables...

 

P.S. I agree with everything else you said, the Jays numbers through the first 6 innings must be scary good, now thinking about it.

[Brownie19]

He's right about our offence after 7 and later, it's brutal. Last I saw it was a wRC+ 87 or something gross, but we are one of the best hitting teams with RISP and RISP w 2 out. So many variables...

 

P.S. I agree with everything else you said, the Jays numbers through the first 6 innings must be scary good, now thinking about it.

 

Fangraphs says our wRC+ in "high leverage" situations is like 104, which is 12th best in baseball (not 100% sure what high leverage is defined as).

[Spanky99]

Fangraphs says our wRC+ in "high leverage" situations is like 104, which is 12th best in baseball (not 100% sure what high leverage is defined as).

 

That's fine, no big deal, could've changed big in the past week or so, I don't care about clutch, it's just noise, what would clutch be best quantified at in advanced metrics WPA?

[Signal]

Yeah - you're going to need stats to prove that. You're also going to have to explain how sample size plays a factor and disprove it simply as random luck. We have the second best offense in baseball by wRC+ (5th by runs and only a few behind 2nd place) and we have the 2nd lowest K% in baseball. We also have the 9th highest oppo % in baseball. You sound like Buck when you say they should cut down their swings, but how do you know they aren't? There are several reasons we have a bad record in close games. s***** bullpen (for part/most of the year), below average manager, below average defense and base running as a team and of course the randomness of baseball.

 

Jays are 25th in the league when it comes to scoring in innings 7 to 9. Or does scoring or not scoring only matters when it comes to other innings? https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/last-3-innings-runs-per-game

 

And please do not compare me to Buck who basically defends every asinine move made by their below average manager. I simply am stating that the stats seem to suggest that their approach at the plate late in games is not working.

[Stangstag]

Jays are 25th in the league when it comes to scoring in innings 7 to 9. Or does scoring or not scoring only matters when it comes to other innings? https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/last-3-innings-runs-per-game

 

And please do not compare me to Buck who basically defends every asinine move made by their below average manager. I simply am stating that the stats seem to suggest that their approach at the plate late in games is not working.

 

I think something to note too is that we've played a lot of games vs Tampa, Boston and NY (40+ games) who all have some good bullpen arms. 8 of the top 25 relievers by WAR on those teams.

 

At the end of the day, we have the 2nd best offense in baseball by wRC+ so I don't care much about the late inning thing.

[Spanky99]

I think something to note too is that we've played a lot of games vs Tampa, Boston and NY (40+ games) who all have some good bullpen arms. 8 of the top 25 relievers by WAR on those teams.

 

At the end of the day, we have the 2nd best offense in baseball by wRC+ so I don't care much about the late inning thing.

 

Well, it is a problem if it continues, I can't stomach many more late game losses.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Sure it'd be great if the Jays scored more runs from innings 7-9

 

It'd be better if their bullpen wasn't injured and/or garbage all the time too.

 

Hopefully next season the Jays FO doesn't put all their eggs in a Yates and Merryweather shaped basket. Hopefully BP arms like that will just be "found money" to add to their stable of stud arms if they actually manage to stay healthy.

[Signal]

I think something to note too is that we've played a lot of games vs Tampa, Boston and NY (40+ games) who all have some good bullpen arms. 8 of the top 25 relievers by WAR on those teams.

 

At the end of the day, we have the 2nd best offense in baseball by wRC+ so I don't care much about the late inning thing.

 

Good teams find a way to manufacture a run or two when up against a good pitcher. And good teams find a way in close games. Jays right now are not a good team. They could be, but not until they begin to score runs when it matters most and not just in blowouts. Their record is what it is for a reason.

[Brownie19]

Good teams find a way to manufacture a run or two when up against a good pitcher. And good teams find a way in close games. Jays right now are not a good team. They could be, but not until they begin to score runs when it matters most and not just in blowouts. Their record is what it is for a reason.

 

I think if you research it, you'll find this isn't necessarily true. In any particular year, you'll find great teams who struggle in 1 run games and you'll find average/s***** teams who manage to win a ton of 1 run games.

[Stangstag]

Good teams find a way to manufacture a run or two when up against a good pitcher. And good teams find a way in close games. Jays right now are not a good team. They could be, but not until they begin to score runs when it matters most and not just in blowouts. Their record is what it is for a reason.

 

Ok meat

[Signal]

I think if you research it, you'll find this isn't necessarily true. In any particular year, you'll find great teams who struggle in 1 run games and you'll find average/s***** teams who manage to win a ton of 1 run games.

 

Yes, but do think the Jays would be sitting in a better position right now if they were one of those teams that fared better in 1 run games.

[Brownie19]

Yes, but do think the Jays would be sitting in a better position right now if they were one of those teams that fared better in 1 run games.

 

Every team in baseball would be in a better position if they fared better in 1 run games. There are a long list of factors that play into the results of 1 run games and luck is one of the biggest ones.

 

In general, there are very few players who consistently perform better in high pressure situations (where one might call it clutch). It seems to fluctuate year to year....because there's a big element of randomness (or luck) involved.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Brownie19

[glory]

Sure it'd be great if the Jays scored more runs from innings 7-9

 

It'd be better if their bullpen wasn't injured and/or garbage all the time too.

 

Hopefully next season the Jays FO doesn't put all their eggs in a Yates and Merryweather shaped basket. Hopefully BP arms like that will just be "found money" to add to their stable of stud arms if they actually manage to stay healthy.

 

Having a manager that doesn't know how to manage a bullpen and abuses every half way decent RP he has (until they get hurt) due to lack of knowledge on leverage kind of hurts the bullpen setup as well. Yates was signed when he was injured, so they need to avoid stuff like that (unless it's a minor gamble and not someone they intend to put in the closer role), but they need to find someone capable of using a pen to its strengths. Charlie isn't it.

[Deadpool]

Yes, but do think the Jays would be sitting in a better position right now if they were one of those teams that fared better in 1 run games.

 

They'd also be in a better position if they fared better in 10 run games.

[Stangstag]

Having a manager that doesn't know how to manage a bullpen and abuses every half way decent RP he has (until they get hurt) due to lack of knowledge on leverage kind of hurts the bullpen setup as well. Yates was signed when he was injured, so they need to avoid stuff like that (unless it's a minor gamble and not someone they intend to put in the closer role), but they need to find someone capable of using a pen to its strengths. Charlie isn't it.

 

I'd like to know how many times Romano has pitched with a 4+ run lead vs games with a closer score. Like that game 1 in Seattle, he didn't even get into the game even though it was tied. Then in game 3 he pitches in an 8-3 game.

 

Montoyo ain't too bright.

[bronson44]

what a s*** call on the first pitch to Bo