GDT | 2021 First-Year Player Draft | Day 1 | July 11 — 7:00 PM ET

[THANOS]

Are the command type of pitchers starting to be coveted instead of the more raw power arm types?

 

Yeah, they may feel they can add velo to him. Jack Leiter started as a command guy and then added the velo at Vandy.

[King]

There is truth to the adding velo thing. Teams are definitely good at developing it now

[Ray]

Are the command type of pitchers starting to be coveted instead of the more raw power arm types?

 

I mean, Hoglund ticked up to 97 mph. He’s not the prototypical command plus guy. He can throw fairly hard.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised if he experienced a velo bump after his TJ recovery.

[TwistedLogic]

I actually really like Sweeney's scouting report, lol. I'd probably be begging for the Jays to pick him up if he were still around in the third round.

[THANOS]

There is truth to the adding velo thing. Teams are definitely good at developing it now

 

Yeah, Vanderbilt is basically compared to a high level MLB development system, like the Jays.

 

Adding Hogland to Vandy instead of Mississippi could have added 3-4 mphs so it's possible the Jays feel they can do the same thing for him.

 

If he can sit 94-96 or 95-97, instead of 92-95, where he is now, then he becomes a front of the rotation type of starter with that command.

[TwistedLogic]

Montgomery's mom (or whoever that woman is sitting next to his dad) looks like Anna Kendrick.

[gruber92]

I've always felt that command as a basis with three plus pitches is the better nucleus to start with. He'd have to be sitting at at least 93-94 with room for an increase.

 

The LHP the Cubs took is a command/off speed specialist with arguably the best change up in the draft?

[Laika]

Fangraphs report is probably the best one out there as far as actual insight goes. Main points:

 

- best command in college

- plus slider

- fastball has positive characteristics aside from velo

- sounds like basic pro weight training could boost velo

- once healthy he may not need much development

 

Full Report

Hoglund was many scout's favorite non-first round prep projection arm for 2018: up to 96, average off-speed stuff, but a clean delivery and frame with room to grow. He didn't sign as a comp pick of the Pirates and instead went to Ole Miss. He had growing pains as a freshman, but looked crisp in the fall of 2019, which was the start of his ascent to legitimate college ace. Through 2021 Hoglund was arguably the most polished college arm in the class, sitting in the low-90s, while dotting a plus slider on the corner with remarkable consistency. Healthy Hoglund has the best command in this draft. His fastball's tailing action garners looking strikes on the glove-side corner and sets up Hoglund's changeup, which needs to develop. Toward the ends of a dominant 2021, Hoglund looked awkward and uncomfortable warming up for a start and was removed from it early on. He would need Tommy John. We look at his rehab as an opportunity to rework a softer build and maybe exit the process with more velocity. TJ rehab or not, Hoglund has a great chance to be one of the first players from this class to reach the big leagues because of how advanced he is.

[Daniel Labude]

There is truth to the adding velo thing. Teams are definitely good at developing it now

 

At some point that will be less evident because the methods will filter into college programs. Hopefully they can get more velocity. Would be a top 10 talent fore sure

[BlueRocky]

It’s not gonna take 5 years of development for Hoglund to help the big club. Heck he could be here before Van Eyk tbh. That has value to a club that’s looking to compete in 2022-2025 while we still have the kids and Springer.

[TwistedLogic]

I've always felt that command as a basis with three plus pitches is the better nucleus to start with. He'd have to be sitting at at least 93-94 with room for an increase.

 

The LHP the Cubs took is a command/off speed specialist with arguably the best change up in the draft?

 

Jordan Wicks was the best LHP in the draft period.

[Slade]

I've always felt that command as a basis with three plus pitches is the better nucleus to start with. He'd have to be sitting at at least 93-94 with room for an increase.

 

The LHP the Cubs took is a command/off speed specialist with arguably the best change up in the draft?

 

You just never know Jordan Wicks seems a lot like Reid Detmers from last year LHP 90-94, great command, incredible curve. Fast forward a year in AA he's hitting 97 and striking out 16K/9 3BB/9. Teaching velocity is a thing now.

[Laika]

I've always felt that command as a basis with three plus pitches is the better nucleus to start with. He'd have to be sitting at at least 93-94 with room for an increase.

 

The LHP the Cubs took is a command/off speed specialist with arguably the best change up in the draft?

 

Well no f***ing s***, three plus pitches and command = a f***ing Ace.

 

The real comparison is the power arm without much else vs the command specialist without much else.

[Slade]

[TwistedLogic]

2012: Max Muncy, born August 25, drafted by the Oakland Athletics.

2021: Max Muncy, born August 25, drafted by the Oakland Athletics.

 

Time is a flat circle.

[Benito]

When is Hoglund expected to return? Will he be ready for most of the minor league season next year?

[BlueRocky]

19. Toronto Blue Jays: Gunnar Hoglund, RHP, Ole Miss

 

Who is Hoglund? A supplemental first-round pick by the Pirates out of high school (36th overall), Hoglund ended up at Mississippi due to concerns about his post-draft physical. He looked like a potential top-five overall pick early this season, before injuring his elbow and undergoing Tommy John surgery. Before the injury, his velocity had ticked up from his first two years in college, sitting 93-96, and all four of his pitches graded out as 55s or higher. If he bounces back, he could be a steal -- think of the Dodgers taking Walker Buehler 24th overall in 2015.

 

Why the Blue Jays took him here: his is a good roll of the dice by the Blue Jays, as Hoglund would have gone higher if he had been healthy. Before going down, Hoglund had fanned 96 in 62 2/3 innings, so there is a potential high-ceiling strikeout pitcher here if he bounces back. -- Schoenfield

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31789648/2021-mlb-draft-tracker-live-updates-results-all-first-round-picks-order-analysis-highlights%3fplatform=amp

[gruber92]

Well no f***ing s***, three plus pitches and command = a f***ing Ace.

 

The real comparison is the power arm without much else vs the command specialist without much else.

 

It all depends where the fastball is sitting. It's rare that a plus command type that sits 88-90 is going to be successful in the MLB, maybe a swing type. Bat speed in the MLB is getting better and better and hitters don't mind sitting soft and then react to a 90mph fastball hitting it hard the other way nowadays.

[Slade]

[BlueRocky]

When is Hoglund expected to return? Will he be ready for most of the minor league season next year?

 

I think Gunner had TJS @ May 18, he should be able come back sometime next season for his pro debut. Or you know, we could have a strike and CBA lockout.

[gruber92]

When is Hoglund expected to return? Will he be ready for most of the minor league season next year?

 

Surgery was in May, so he should be good to go right out of the shoot or miss a few weeks worst case.

[Slade]

Ready to see who Tampa takes who will stick it to us for the next decade.

[JFD]

Gunnar Hoglund sounds like a good hockey name

[Ray]

Apparently almost all the draft experts were saying there’s a strong chance that most teams will actually shut down any college pitchers they select due to the lack of a full college season last year and to manage innings. So there’s a chance that Hoglund doesn’t actually miss that much in-game development time compared to other pitchers in this draft.

 

The hope is he works out of the developmental complex and adds enough strength and focuses on recovery that he experiences a velo bump/stuff increase. Combine that with his advanced approach and plus command, and you got a real nice looking prospect. Not saying he’s gonna be Walker Buehler, but maybe?

[THANOS]

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/31789648/2021-mlb-draft-tracker-live-updates-results-all-first-round-picks-order-analysis-highlights%3fplatform=amp

 

Wow! Walker Buehler mention caught my eye. That said if the velo ticks up, a high strikeout elite command guy sounds an awful lot like Bieber.

[Slade]

Apparently almost all the draft experts were saying there’s a strong chance that most teams will actually shut down any college pitchers they select due to the lack of a full college season last year and to manage innings. So there’s a chance that Hoglund doesn’t actually miss that much in-game development time compared to other pitchers in this draft.

 

The hope is he works out of the developmental complex and adds enough strength and focuses on recovery that he experiences a velo bump/stuff increase. Combine that with his advanced approach and plus command, and you got a real nice looking prospect. Not saying he’s gonna be Walker Buehler, but maybe?

 

That happens every year, college pitchers barely get into any games post draft.

[TwistedLogic]

Ready to see who Tampa takes who will stick it to us for the next decade.

 

Don't worry about that, Tampa sucks at drafting.

[Slade]

There goes Jay Allen.

[BlueRocky]

There goes Allen

[TwistedLogic]

How did Joe Mack last this long? Usually with a high school guy you wonder about signability, but that clearly can't be a concern if he's attending the draft.