The Jays face bad teams in 46% of their remaining games | Basic schedule analysis

[TwistedLogic]

Prelude

 

The Blue Jays look like f***ing garbage. It's not fun to watch. It's practically miserable.

 

However...

 

Let's take a step back for a minute from the emotions of all of these horrific games to look at the big picture for a second.

 

I took a deep dive into the Jays remaining schedule and ranked their remaining opponents into some fairly arbitrary buckets using current win-loss records (actual win percentage), and then I did it all over again using each team's expected record (based on run differential).

 

The "strength" buckets where each remaining Blue Jays opponent falls into are as follows:

 

- "Elite" | Teams in that .570 win-rate range and higher. These teams already look like they're serious contenders for division titles.

- "Contenders" | Teams under the top tier all the way down to teams around 5 games under .500. This is the bulk of the wild card race.

- "Bad" | Teams more than 5 games below .500. These guys are quickly watching their post-season hopes fade away.

- "Trash" | Teams at a win rate of .420 or below (>10 games under .500). These teams are already thinking about next year's #1 draft pick.

 

On with the breakdown.

 

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Remaining Opponents Ranked By Actual Win-Rate

 

 

36 games remaining against elite teams:

12x Rays, 10x Red Sox, 4x White Sox, 4x Indians, 3x Athletics, 3x Mets

 

19 games remaining against contenders:

7x Yankees, 6x Mariners, 4x Angels, 2x Nationals

 

11 games remaining against bad teams (sub .460 win-rate):

6x Tigers, 3x Royals, 2x Marlins

 

29 games remaining against garbage teams (sub .420 win-rate):

19x Orioles, 7x Twins, 3x Rangers

 

---

Remaining Schedule Ranked By Expected Win-Rate (Pythag)

 

 

16 games remaining against elite teams:

12x Rays, 4x White Sox

 

35 games remaining against contenders:

10x Red Sox, 7x Yankees, 4x Indians, 4x Angels, 3x Mets, 3x Athletics, 2x Marlins, 2x Nationals

 

19 games against bad teams (sub .460 expected win-rate):

7x Twins, 6x Mariners, 3x Royals, 3x Rangers

 

25 games against trash teams (sub .420 expected win-rate):

19x Orioles, 6x Tigers

 

---

Analysis:

 

For those that trust actual record over expected record, the Blue Jays have

 

- 55 games remaining against mediocre to great teams.

- 40 games remaining against bad to abysmal teams.

 

This means 42% of the remaining schedule is against teams that suck.

 

For those that trust expected record over actual record, the Blue Jays have

 

- 51 games remaining against mediocre to great teams.

- 44 games remaining against bad to abysmal teams.

 

This means 46% of the remaining schedule is against teams that suck.

 

Based on actual record, the Blue Jays currently fall into that fringe contender bucket with a .500 win-rate, at 33-33. Conversely, looking at run differentials and expected win-rate, the Blue Jays look like a borderline elite team with a .576 expected win-rate and a 38-28 expected record. Now, we know why the Jays aren't close to their pythag record and that's because they have a bad manager and a terrible bullpen, resulting in an abysmal record in close games.

 

The remaining schedule does give the Blue Jays some breathing room throughout the remainder of the season but they absolutely have to start playing to the level that their expected record indicates. This means they can lose a few games to the truly elite teams (Rays and White Sox) but must begin outplaying the other teams in their bucket. Furthermore, they have to dominate the bad teams.

 

Unfortunately, they've likely already lost too many close games to be serious contenders for a division title, barring a horrific collapse by the Rays. Their most realistic hope is to grab a wild card spot. While you'll likely need 93-94 wins to have a somewhat safe chance to get into the playoffs, let's just look at 90 wins as a target for now.

 

This is one potential path they can take to get to 90 wins:

 

- 07-09 for a .438 win rate against the elites (Rays, White Sox)

- 20-15 for a .571 win rate against teams in their tier (Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, A's, Marlins, Nationals)

- 12-07 for a .652 win rate against bad teams that aren't contending (Twins, Mariners, Royals, Rangers)

- 18-07 for a .720 win rate against s*** teams that look like the worst in the league (Orioles, Tigers)

 

Unless the Blue Jays choke away games to the bad teams or somehow come out and dominate the Rays in their remaining matchups, their season will be made or broken based on what they do in that second tier. It consists of the highest number of games remaining and also includes all the teams fighting for their spot in the postseason.

Edited June 28, 2021 by TwistedLogic

[TwistedLogic]

TLDR: Can the Blue Jays still realistically make the post season? Yes. Absolutely. They have the 6th easiest schedule remaining in the league and currently hold a 32.0% chance of making the playoffs (both points according to FanGraphs). But they have to stop losing games now.

 

46% of their remaining games (44/95) are against teams that suck. That's the good news. The bad news is that they also need to begin winning at a respectable clip against opponents of comparable skill level to themselves.

 

Final note: All of the above analysis was done for the schedule beginning after tomorrow's Yankees game. The Jays could still lose that game (and I expect them to, with Zeuch on the mound) and follow the above scenarios to get to 90 wins. Winning tomorrow would give them a one-game head start on the rest of the schedule.

[G-Snarls]

TLDR: Can the Blue Jays still realistically make the post season? Yes. Absolutely. They have the 6th easiest schedule remaining in the league and currently hold a 32.0% chance of making the playoffs (both points according to FanGraphs). But they have to stop losing games now.

 

46% of their remaining games (44/95) are against teams that suck. That's the good news. The bad news is that they also need to begin winning at a respectable clip against opponents of comparable skill level to themselves.

 

Final note: All of the above analysis was done for the schedule beginning after tomorrow's Yankees game. The Jays could still lose that game (and I expect them to, with Zeuch on the mound) and follow the above scenarios to get to 90 wins. Winning tomorrow would give them a one-game head start on the rest of the schedule.

 

Also, if they do make the post season and there are not significant additions, they don't stack up well due to the bullpen. Having 2-3 really good high leverage BP guys in a 7 game series with multiple off days is so important.

[The Cats Ass]

Also, if they do make the post season and there are not significant additions, they don't stack up well due to the bullpen. Having 2-3 really good high leverage BP guys in a 7 game series with multiple off days is so important.

 

I could see us having a vastly different bullpen by the time the end of the season finishes. Guys should come back from injury, and prospects will be called up. We might see guys like SWR, Joey Murray, and possibly even one or both of Manoah/Pearson pitching out of the pen due to innings limit and getting them a taste of the majors in some cases.

[The Iceman]

Are the teams playing the Jays considering them a bad team?

Asking for a friend.

[Laika]

Are the teams playing the Jays considering them a bad team?

Asking for a friend.

 

no.

[Solaxys]

Are the teams playing the Jays considering them a bad team?

Asking for a friend.

 

If you ever watch games from the opposing side's announcers' perspective, they are incessantly gushing about the Jays offense and, to an extent, the starting pitching.

Nary but a few believe Jays are a .500 team especially after Vlad's surge, but that's how the dice rolled.

[DigitalRock]

Are the teams playing the Jays considering them a bad team?

Asking for a friend.

 

No one who knows baseball thinks the jays are bad, it's flawed right now, but not bad.

[wilko]

BP needs some serious help. The injuries are stacking up but if they can get some help either by trade or internal promotion they should be in a good spot.

[Bluebombers]

That's an excellent job Twisted in that analysis,saves me so much time,was going to check schedule/ opponents today.

Let's get healthy Jays and make hay when the sun is shining. ( Beat those garbage teams thoroughly)

[Anybody but Charlie]

It's really not going to matter. Kansas City and Texas beat us already. Baltimore is losing to everybody, so wouldn't surprise me if they wake up against us. Especially when we have a submissive quiet loser managing the team. Maybe Blue Jays will take two out of three from Baltimore when it should have been a sweep, and Charlie will say "what more can you ask for!"

 

This team isn't going anywhere until they address the managing position. Maybe getting crushed by Baltimore and Miami will force upper management to finally pull the plug on the inexperienced beta manager.

[L54]

Awesome analysis TL

[Spanky99]

TLDR: Can the Blue Jays still realistically make the post season? Yes. Absolutely. They have the 6th easiest schedule remaining in the league and currently hold a 32.0% chance of making the playoffs (both points according to FanGraphs). But they have to stop losing games now.

 

46% of their remaining games (44/95) are against teams that suck. That's the good news. The bad news is that they also need to begin winning at a respectable clip against opponents of comparable skill level to themselves.

 

Final note: All of the above analysis was done for the schedule beginning after tomorrow's Yankees game. The Jays could still lose that game (and I expect them to, with Zeuch on the mound) and follow the above scenarios to get to 90 wins. Winning tomorrow would give them a one-game head start on the rest of the schedule.

 

King's good hittin' and maybe Zeuch has done something different, someone posted his K rate increase the other day, it was pretty good. IDK... great thread by the way, much appreciated.

[RustyTrombone]

King's good hittin' and maybe Zeuch has done something different, someone posted his K rate increase the other day, it was pretty good. IDK... great thread by the way, much appreciated.

 

K rate increase was Waguespack not Zeuch lol Yankee hitters gonna be frothing at the mouth to face zeuch lmao

[Spanky99]

K rate increase was Waguespack not Zeuch lol Yankee hitters gonna be frothing at the mouth to face zeuch lmao

 

Oh my bad, well time to clench and hope he keeps it on the ground, thanks by the way, I legit thought it was Zoinks for some reason. They should've used Wags instead.

[Spanky99]

6-2 so far, should've been 7-1... GO JAYS GO!!!

[Krylian]

6-2 so far, should've been 7-1... GO JAYS GO!!!

 

To be fair, they should've lost that 10-7 game where they were down 7-4 with 2 outs in the 9th. I say that last bullpen implosion balances that out.

[Spanky99]

To be fair, they should've lost that 10-7 game where they were down 7-4 with 2 outs in the 9th. I say that last bullpen implosion balances that out.

 

Sure... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Dah Dugout]

85-87 wins seems doable with that schedule.

[DigitalRock]

I still believe this team can be a playoff team , with additions at the deadline.

[InvincibleTiger]

Weren't the Jays 51-51 in 2015 at one point and wound up winning 93? 42-18

[G-Snarls]

Itshappening.gif

[Krylian]

Weren't the Jays 51-51 in 2015 at one point and wound up winning 93? 42-18

 

50-51. But that's not really how you want to draw it up.

[Spanky99]

8-2

[G-Snarls]

85-87 wins seems doable with that schedule.

 

If they play 0.576 the rest of the way that's 90 wins

 

If they play 0.553 the rest of the way that's 88 wins

 

Very doable especially if the bullpen is improved

[Scion]

The Jays just need to continue to make hay against the bad teams and hover around .500 against the rest until the deadline. At that point management will hopefully have added enough through trade and call-ups that the team can compete against anyone.

[Laika]

6 against the Rays before the ASG in July and then 7 against Boston that month after the ASG.

 

Put your big boy pants on and win a bunch of those games. Win the division.

[Spanky99]

10-4

[G-Snarls]

6 against the Rays before the ASG in July and then 7 against Boston that month after the ASG.

 

Put your big boy pants on and win a bunch of those games. Win the division.

 

Posted this in another thread but...

 

After the all star break the Red Sox play *18* straight games against only the Blue Jays, Rays and Yankees. With NO off days.

 

Would love to see them finally lose some ground

Edited July 4, 2021 by G-Snarls

[max silver]

6 against the Rays before the ASG in July and then 7 against Boston that month after the ASG.

 

Put your big boy pants on and win a bunch of those games. Win the division.

 

With the dismantling of the Rays the last few days the Jays are off to a good start.