General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2021)

[Dick_Pole]

Couldn't find a bold predictions thread for this year so I'll stuff this here. I've seen enough from this team and baseball in general to make these two:

 

1. Jays will win 95ish games this year.

2. Guerrero will flirt with .400, maybe land somewhere between Olerud and Gwynn, and hit 60+ home runs.

[Spanky99]

Couldn't find a bold predictions thread for this year so I'll stuff this here. I've seen enough from this team and baseball in general to make these two:

 

1. Jays will win 95ish games this year.

2. Guerrero will flirt with .400, maybe land somewhere between Olerud and Gwynn, and hit 60+ home runs.

 

25 bombs on the 25th of June is silly! Hitting 340. and makes it look easy, sure why not.

[BigCecil]

52/88 have to be a W to get to 90 wins. Losses like tonight sting. Given we are 2 games over thats a tall order. Will take a red hot stretch.

[Spanky99]

52/88 have to be a W to get to 90 wins. Losses like tonight sting. Given we are 2 games over thats a tall order. Will take a red hot stretch.

 

You worry to much, bud. Easy Peasy.

[BigCecil]

You worry to much, bud. Easy Peasy.

 

lol. Ya I do and you are too optimistic. .590 rest of the way isn't easy. Maybe if they add a bunch. Got to beat the O's when you have a 4 run lead in the 8th.

 

More I think about last night with tying run at plate and RHHs up, Montoyo should have brought in Romano to relieve Chatwood, if he was hot.

[Jimcanuck]

lol. Ya I do and you are too optimistic. .590 rest of the way isn't easy. Maybe if they add a bunch. Got to beat the O's when you have a 4 run lead in the 8th.

 

More I think about last night with tying run at plate and RHHs up, Montoyo should have brought in Romano to relieve Chatwood, if he was hot.

 

The current troubles are all on the FO, IMO. Montoyo's late inning options are meh, s***, meh, and s***.

[BigCecil]

The current troubles are all on the FO, IMO. Montoyo's late inning options are meh, s***, meh, and s***.

 

Ya the FO sure. But Charlie does have one bullet in the pen. He should have used its in the 8th with tying run at the plate against RHH. What was he saving that one bullet for is the fair question? Romano has been more than meh.

[Jimcanuck]

Ya the FO sure. But Charlie does have one bullet in the pen. He should have used its in the 8th with tying run at the plate against RHH. What was he saving that one bullet for is the fair question? Romano has been more than meh.

 

No idea what was going through Montoyo's head. Probably just the standard closer in the 9th thinking. Agree Romano (or Murphy?) should have been brought in.

[JFD]

Nevermind Charlie.. Ross Atkins is clueless. Much bigger problem

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nevermind Charlie.. Ross Atkins is clueless. Much bigger problem

 

The Jays have 8 relievers on the IL right now.

 

If Borucki, Dolis, Phelps, Merryweather, Yates and Cole are around, this team is probably 44-30 instead of 38-36.

 

So if by "clueless" you mean "without a crystal ball" then sure, he's clueless.

[JFD]

If the injury prone players weren't injured and the moron manager wasnt a moron, everything would be fine.

[Daniel Labude]

[Eat My Shatkins]

Kirk getting close, nice.

 

Now if we could just get a couple of good relievers who throw f***ing strikes.

[John_Havok]

52/88 have to be a W to get to 90 wins. Losses like tonight sting. Given we are 2 games over thats a tall order. Will take a red hot stretch.

 

Not mention a bullpen that doesnt walk in 6 runs every other f***ing night.

[Slade]

[rydermike]

Didn't the MLB make the starting pitcher suspensions 9 games before to avoid this cheating the system of not having it affect your starts. 5 games is so easy manipulate it to not lose your turn, especially since we have an off day

[Deadpool]

Didn't the MLB make the starting pitcher suspensions 9 games before to avoid this cheating the system of not having it affect your starts. 5 games is so easy manipulate it to not lose your turn, especially since we have an off day

 

It was ridiculous that he was suspended in the first place, so whatever.

[G-Snarls]

Jacob Barnes

 

I've seen his stats but not watched him pitch

 

Do we have something with him or probably not?

[Dick_Pole]

52/88 have to be a W to get to 90 wins. Losses like tonight sting. Given we are 2 games over thats a tall order. Will take a red hot stretch.

 

That's why it's called a BOLD prediction, not obvious and lame prediction. The 2015 team did it being .500 at the break so it's possible. I'm just taking a look at the spin rates after the crackdown, how that's impacted each team, how well the Jays offense have done despite it, how the Jays starters have turned it around, and a road-heavy schedule to date to come to this conclusion. The final piece is the BP and with guys slowly coming back and with a 3 inning workload each game instead of 4-5 innings, this should drastically improve its performance. The BP has bottomed out in its uselessness. Run differential implies a 93 win season and I think the Jays will get there.

[Laika]

Jacob Barnes

 

I've seen his stats but not watched him pitch

 

Do we have something with him or probably not?

 

Prob not but a good lightning in a bottle candidate. The guy has good stuff and has been very good before

[BCZ]

Fangraphs has the Jays with a 34.5% chance of making the play-offs. This seems shockingly high given they have to leapfrog 3 times to grab WC-2...

[Laika]

Fangraphs has the Jays with a 34.5% chance of making the play-offs. This seems shockingly high given they have to leapfrog 3 times to grab WC-2...

 

They are better than those teams

[G-Snarls]

They are better than those teams

 

I like your attitude

 

But at least one of them has to be the Yankees or Red Sox and possibly both

[Laika]

I like your attitude

 

But at least one of them has to be the Yankees or Red Sox and possibly both

 

Well Toronto currently has a better run differential than both. I think they truly are a better team than Boston and New York. Certainly Boston. Might be close with New York if you are assuming some health for the Yankees.

[The Iceman]

I think Toronto is a better team than NYY and similar to Boston. +/- means little. use the Boston series as the example. Split 2-2 and plus a billion runs. So what.

 

This version of the Blue Jays have given away more games that they should have won than any team in recent memory.

I fully expect this gifting of games will continue and this will bite them in the a$$ in the end.

 

Need a new culture, need a new manager.

[DigitalRock]

This team is clearly better then their record indicates, but too many blown games may come back to bite them, the offense is legit, depends on what atkins does at the deadline, but team should be setup for a run next 2-3 seasons.

[Laika]

+/- means little. use the Boston series as the example. Split 2-2 and plus a billion runs. So what.

 

This is terrible logic.

 

Run scoring rate vs run prevention rate across a large sample size means quite a bit. What happened in a couple of specific games means nothing - it's just noise.

[Farm]

This is terrible logic.

 

Run scoring rate vs run prevention rate across a large sample size means quite a bit. What happened in a couple of specific games means nothing - it's just noise.

 

Although if there's one thing that might prevent run differential from directly translating into W-L, it's the strength of a bullpen...

[Laika]

Although if there's one thing that might prevent run differential from directly translating into W-L, it's the strength of a bullpen...

 

Not necessarily true. Bad bullpens give up lots of runs and ruin a team's run diff

 

The delta between win loss and Pythagorean win loss is mostly luck. It should be assumed to be completely luck, most of the time.

 

I see what you're saying though. Some truth there, maybe, but it certainly would not explain the Blue Jays' delta IMO. Not even close.

[G-Snarls]

It's so frustrating to watch a very good starting staff and amazing lineup play to a record barely over .500

 

Once the 7th inning rolls around and the bullpen has to come in and Charlie can start to impact the game directly it's just maddening

 

Please help the bullpen