AL Wild Card Round: Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays

[King]

I don't think batters should be allowed to swing 3-0, I think it leads to negative outcomes far more often than positive ones (simply because most things for MLB hitters lead to negative outcomes, if they didn't, a .300 batting average wouldn't be considered "good".)

Can we get some fact checking on this. I think this is very stupid.

 

According to your logic, no batter should ever swing because it leads to negative outcomes more than not.

[Deadpool]

Can we get some fact checking on this. I think this is very stupid.

 

According to your logic, no batter should ever swing because it leads to negative outcomes more than not.

 

No, that's absolutely not my logic, commander strawman. I'm saying you shouldn't swing in that specific situation.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/5/8151763/baseball-swinging-count-pitches-balls-strikes-strikezone-sluggers

 

 

"On 3-0 pitches, zone 5 is the 5th most common zone for a pitch to be thrown through; zones 11-14 are more common."

 

And I mean, Teo swung at a pitch at his f***ing eyeballs in this specific situation.

[Laika]

No, that's absolutely not my logic, commander strawman. I'm saying you shouldn't swing in that specific situation.

 

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/3/5/8151763/baseball-swinging-count-pitches-balls-strikes-strikezone-sluggers

 

 

"On 3-0 pitches, zone 5 is the 5th most common zone for a pitch to be thrown through; zones 11-14 are more common."

 

And I mean, Teo swung at a pitch at his f***ing eyeballs in this specific situation.

 

Wow, this is the ultimate goal post move.

 

You said players should not swing 3-0.

 

Now you are saying players should not swing at balls.

[Deadpool]

Wow, this is the ultimate goal post move.

 

You said players should not swing 3-0.

 

Now you are saying players should not swing at balls.

 

I'm saying players should not swing 3-0 regardless. I'm saying that the likelihood of a ball is greater than the likelihood of a cookie down the middle.

 

Not swinging 3-0, the best outcome is "free base, no out". and the worst outcome is "still in a hitter's count". The positive outcome is "34.5% chance of a hit". and the negative outcomes are "swings and the count is 3-1" or "generates 1 or more outs."

 

3-0 a pitch is called a ball 33% of the time (the number of pitches out of the zone is higher, as swinging at a pitch at your eyeballs counts as a strike there.) And if you put the ball in play (certainly not a sure thing) there's a 34.5% chance that it is a hit. 59% of 3-0 counts end in a walk regardless.

 

Taking a 3-0 pitch is more likely to have a positive outcome than swinging at one.

 

Edit: the positive outcome of swinging is actually 34.5% chance that, if you put the ball in play, it will result in a hit. You are, obviously, not guaranteed to put the ball in play on your swing.

 

Minor, but important, clarification.

[saskjayfan]

I'm saying players should not swing 3-0 regardless. I'm saying that the likelihood of a ball is greater than the likelihood of a cookie down the middle.

 

Not swinging 3-0, the best outcome is "free base, no out". and the worst outcome is "still in a hitter's count". The positive outcome is "34.5% chance of a hit". and the negative outcomes are "swings and the count is 3-1" or "generates 1 or more outs."

 

3-0 a pitch is called a ball 33% of the time (the number of pitches out of the zone is higher, as swinging at a pitch at your eyeballs counts as a strike there.) And if you put the ball in play (certainly not a sure thing) there's a 34.5% chance that it is a hit. 59% of 3-0 counts end in a walk regardless.

 

Taking a 3-0 pitch is more likely to have a positive outcome than swinging at one.

 

Edit: the positive outcome of swinging is actually 34.5% chance that, if you put the ball in play, it will result in a hit. You are, obviously, not guaranteed to put the ball in play on your swing.

 

Minor, but important, clarification.

 

I'm not generally a fan of swinging 3 and 0, but you can't make the argument in a vacuum either. We were down 3 runs late in the game. Given the dominance of the Rays pitching. What are the odds off getting 3 runs and what had your opportunities to score runs in the game been like. While the odds of a home run to tie are low, you had your best power hitter at the plate. The odds of him getting a hit to drive in some runs their might have been better than any expected odds to get guys on base and in scoring position in the coming innings given the dominant relievers we were facing.

[Laika]

I'm saying players should not swing 3-0 regardless. I'm saying that the likelihood of a ball is greater than the likelihood of a cookie down the middle.

 

Not swinging 3-0, the best outcome is "free base, no out". and the worst outcome is "still in a hitter's count". The positive outcome is "34.5% chance of a hit". and the negative outcomes are "swings and the count is 3-1" or "generates 1 or more outs."

 

3-0 a pitch is called a ball 33% of the time (the number of pitches out of the zone is higher, as swinging at a pitch at your eyeballs counts as a strike there.) And if you put the ball in play (certainly not a sure thing) there's a 34.5% chance that it is a hit. 59% of 3-0 counts end in a walk regardless.

 

Taking a 3-0 pitch is more likely to have a positive outcome than swinging at one.

 

Edit: the positive outcome of swinging is actually 34.5% chance that, if you put the ball in play, it will result in a hit. You are, obviously, not guaranteed to put the ball in play on your swing.

 

Minor, but important, clarification.

 

They needed a big dinger to tie. MLB hitters hit like .400+ on 3-0 counts and slug a million. It's the most likely count to get a meatball.

[DigitalRock]

They needed a big dinger to tie. MLB hitters hit like .400+ on 3-0 counts and slug a million. It's the most likely count to get a meatball.

 

But he never, it was not close to a strike, seeing 3 and 0 only if it is a good pitch to hit. That was huge, would have been 2 on for Gurriel....

[Laika]

But he never, it was not close to a strike, seeing 3 and 0 only if it is a good pitch to hit. That was huge, would have been 2 on for Gurriel....

 

It's almost like hitting is hard and sometimes a player thinks something is a good pitch when it isn't?

[wilko]

God damn Rays. I'd almost rather a thumping than this.

[DigitalRock]

It's almost like hitting is hard and sometimes a player thinks something is a good pitch when it isn't?

 

Which gives the" Do not swing 3 and 0" argument even more weight. Hitting is hard.

[Stangstag]

But he never, it was not close to a strike, seeing 3 and 0 only if it is a good pitch to hit. That was huge, would have been 2 on for Gurriel....

 

Yeah so the responsibility is on Teo to make sure he swings at a good pitch. He SHOULD have the green light, but he needs to be more selective.

[Laika]

Which gives the" Do not swing 3 and 0" argument even more weight. Hitting is hard.

 

No.

 

It was a very justifiable decision. The execution was poor.

Or he just missed the pitch. I mean, it was a ball but IIRC it was still hittable.

[DigitalRock]

Yeah so the responsibility is on Teo to make sure he swings at a good pitch. He SHOULD have the green light, but he needs to be more selective.

 

Exactly, there is a middle ground. Teo f***ed up. No issue with swinging 3 and 0 but the pitch was at his head. Got to be more selective

[DigitalRock]

No.

 

It was a very justifiable decision. The execution was poor.

Or he just missed the pitch. I mean, it was a ball but IIRC it was still hittable.

 

It was the issue was teo swinging at a pitch at his head, not the 3 and 0 green light.

[Laika]

It was the issue was teo swinging at a pitch at his head, not the 3 and 0 green light.

 

Ah yes. The baseball player swung at a ball. Inexcusable, really. Players should only be allowed to do things if they will succeed.

[DigitalRock]

Ah yes. The baseball player swung at a ball. Inexcusable, really. Players should only be allowed to do things if they will succeed.

 

I never said this, just teo f***ed up, that's all you seem into get snarky, angry easy. 3 and 0 I need to pogeon hole a pitcher, he never it happens.

[polar bear]

Forget the arguing Tampa is winning this series probably in three games maybe two

 

Wow! That’s quite the prediction.

[Krylian]

Ah yes. The baseball player swung at a ball. Inexcusable, really. Players should only be allowed to do things if they will succeed.

 

Isn't that what analytics tries to control? Putting the player in the best position to succeed? Removing Shoe after 3 innings? I understand things are not absolute, but stats try to make it as fool proof as possible?

 

In that instance, Teo shouldn't be swinging at anything that isn't exactly the pitch he's looking for in the exact location. If he was looking for a 98 mph fastball out of the strike zone then we have bigger issues.

[DigitalRock]

Ah yes. The baseball player swung at a ball. Inexcusable, really. Players should only be allowed to do things if they will succeed.

 

Also disingenuous, there is a difference between a ball a few inches off the plate and a ball that far out of the zone 3 and 0, No need for the silly childish snarl.

[Laika]

Isn't that what analytics tries to control? Putting the player in the best position to succeed? Removing Shoe after 3 innings? I understand things are not absolute, but stats try to make it as fool proof as possible?

 

In that instance, Teo shouldn't be swinging at anything that isn't exactly the pitch he's looking for in the exact location. If he was looking for a 98 mph fastball out of the strike zone then we have bigger issues.

 

If he swung at it 3-0 then clearly he identified it out of the hand as the type of pitch he was looking for. It was a nasty 98 mph FB with rise, just a hair above the zone. The pitch is practically designed in a lab to deceive a hitter into thinking they can crush it until it is juuuust too late to stop the swing. Hitters making pitch identification mistakes are like, the most common think in baseball. It's the entire game, really. If everyone could judge a pitch correctly out of the hand and make decisions accordingly there would be no sport.

 

Taking the basic 3-2 slider down the middle was what was actually a mental fart by Teoscar. Swinging at the 3-0 pitch was a justifiable decision with an understandably unfortunate result.

[Laika]

Also disingenuous, there is a difference between a ball a few inches off the plate and a ball that far out of the zone 3 and 0, No need for the silly childish snarl.

 

It missed the strike zone by like one inch. Move it a hair in one direction, or take a bit of spin or velocity off of it, and Teoscar might put that pitch in the seats.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635913&game_date=&type=pitch3d&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=call_name&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=&player=home-pitchers_664126&view=Umpire&coloring=Pitch%20Type

[Krylian]

It missed the strike zone by like one inch. Move it a hair in one direction, or take a bit of spin or velocity off of it, and Teoscar might put that pitch in the seats.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=635913&game_date=&type=pitch3d&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=call_name&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=&player=home-pitchers_664126&view=Umpire&coloring=Pitch%20Type

 

Regardless if it missed by and inch or a foot, it's it's borderline...in that instance, you let it go. You just do. These guys have a very good sense of the strike zone...it's really all they do. There's no way Teo didn't know it was borderline high. He tried to be a hero and that wasn't the time.

[Laika]

Regardless if it missed by and inch or a foot, it's it's borderline...in that instance, you let it go. You just do. These guys have a very good sense of the strike zone...it's really all they do. There's no way Teo didn't know it was borderline high. He tried to be a hero and that wasn't the time.

 

Uh they kind of needed a hero. Late and down multiple runs.

[Krylian]

Uh they kind of needed a hero. Late and down multiple runs.

 

3-2 hanging slider was the hero pitch

[connorp]

Can’t believe I’m firmly in Laila’s camp on an issue.

 

It was a rising fastball, jeesum. Ever play or watch some games? People aren’t swinging because they know it’s going to be a ball, it looks like something they can hit. If it’s gets a little less rise and it crushes it, he’s the new Bautista.

 

Or should he be extra careful and look for the walk with those monster .600 OPS bats coming up?

[dineke]

3-2 hanging slider was the hero pitch

 

He was obviously looking for a fastball.

[connorp]

He was obviously looking for a fastball.

 

Yeah he froze him. That’s kind of point of swinging on hitters counts, so you don’t find yourself in that situation.

[RobinThicc]

Hopefully some better luck today and the season can be extended.

[dineke]

Yeah he froze him. That’s kind of point of swinging on hitters counts, so you don’t find yourself in that situation.

 

Yep, Teoscar just can't sit fastball and adjust quick enough to foul off a breaking pitch. Was just laying off any breaking pitch and hoping it will be a ball but unfortunately it was down the midddle.

[Krylian]

He was obviously looking for a fastball.

 

Obviously....but with 2 strikes you need to protect the zone and make contact, not just look for something to drive.