The Baseball Withdrawal Thread

[Spanky99]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Ehjays]

I agree with this write up on Steib, if anyone remembers him, he was as good as they came back then

 

 

https://theaceofspaeder.com/2020/03/26/1601/?fbclid=IwAR2R_ZsiUSsdDlR6S1cYh1WfVSN6AbViSkV4_AiNQyfiwLIteRtTVG4mlIk

 

Not sure cut and paste will look..but here it goes:

 

 

Dave Stieb got his first and only shot at immortality on the 2004 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, the writers gave him about the same amount of time as he gave them during his playing career, as he tallied a paltry seven votes, and he was cast away the following year.

I contend that Stieb deserved a better look. Sure, his 176 wins and 1,669 punch outs pale in comparison to the hallowed standards of 300 victories and 3,000 strikeouts, but over the last decade or so we have learned to measure a ballplayers career utilizing more than just arbitrary benchmarks.

Dave Stieb initially retired due to injuries after the 1993 season, and then he returned for the 1998 season – a season during which he reported to Spring Training as a special instructor – before hanging it up for good… he left the game with a great career behind him, but having never finished better than fourth in Cy Young Award voting, he was far from a Hall of Famer… or was he?

Well, for starters, I do not only think that he should have won a Cy Young Award, I would argue that he should have taken home at least three, perhaps four.

In 1982, Stieb had his best Cy Young finish, fourth, behind Dan Quisenberry, Jim Palmer, and, the winner, Pete Vuckovich. The only problem is that he was markedly better than all of them. It is easy now to look at wins above replacement and note that Stieb led all American League pitchers with 7.6 WAR, equaling the combined totals of Palmer and Vuckovich. But WAR aside, let’s take a look at how Stieb stacked up against the 1982 AL Cy Young Award winner that season…

Pete Vuckovich: 18-5, 3.34 ERA, 30 GS, 9 CG, 1 SHO, 223.2 IP, 105 K, 234 H, 102 BB, 1.502 WHIP

Dave Stieb: 17-14, 3.25 ERA, 38 GS, 19 CG, 5 SHO, 288.1 IP, 141 K, 271 H, 75 BB, 1.200 WHIP

And just for the record Stieb’s 7.6 win above replacement were 4.8 more than what Vuckovich’s WAR total that season. He was also stellar down the stretch, completing eight of his final 12 games – being pulled after nine innings in two games that went into extra innings and after 11 innings in another – with a 1.95 ERA.

Edge? Stieb. Sorry, Clu Heywood.

LaMarr Hoyt took home the 1983 American League Cy Young Award, and Dave Stieb was on the outside looking in, as he did not even get a courtesy vote. Stieb, though, pitched just as well, even better by some standards, than he did the previous year (and better than everyone else receiving votes).

LaMarr Hoyt: 24-10, 3.66 ERA, 36 GS, 11 CG, 1 SHO, 260.2 IP, 148 K, 236 H, 31 BB, 1.024 WHIP

Dave Stieb: 17-12, 3.04 ERA, 36 GS, 14 CG, 4 SHO, 278.0 IP, 187 K, 223 H, 93 BB, 1.137 WHIP

Hoyt had a fine season, and was especially adept at keeping men off base by way of the free pass, but yet again modern statistics tell us that Stieb had the better season. Hoyt’s adjusted ERA was just 15 percent better than league average, where Stieb was 42 percent better, and that his 3.7 wins above replacement were trifling compared to Stieb’s 7.0 WAR.

Sabermetrics or baseball card stats… I am leaning Stieb either way.

The 1984 season saw Willie Hernandez to the American League Cy Young Award. Hernandez, a relief pitcher, had a fantastic season out of the ‘pen, and his victory is not nearly as offensive as the fact that Stieb finished just seventh without a single first place vote – or nearly as great an injustice as the fact that Hernandez also won the damn MVP Award while a guy like Cal Ripken Jr. got virtually no consideration – so let’s take a by the numbers look.

Willie Hernandez: 9-3, 1.92 ERA, 80 G, 32 SV, 140.1 IP, 112 K, 96 H, 36 BB, 0.941 WHIP

Dave Stieb: 16-8, 2.83 ERA, 35 GS, 11 CG, 2 SHO, 267.0 IP, 198 K, 215 H, 88 BB, 1.135 WHIP

My contention here is that BBWAA was, or at least thought they were, ahead of the curve in that they knew the value of relief pitching and finishing games long before anyone had a clue – consistently and incorrectly rewarding relievers in the 1970s and 1980s with Cy Young Awards and occasional MVPs – when the fact is, they did not.

Thought aside: this is no different than how the modern BBWAA heavily favors defensive prowess, as we see Omar Vizquel, undoubtedly one of the greatest fielding shortstops in history, garner support for the Hall of Fame, despite having a bat that was nearly 20 percent below average for his career. The unknown here? Value added by having an all-time great defender over just a generational great – I say it is negligible; give me Jimmy Rollins and his great mitt and good bat over Omar Vizquel and his all-time great glove and incompetent offense. But what do I know?

I do not believe Willie Hernandez and his 4.8 wins above replacement would be taking home the Cy Young Award had this season played out this way in modern baseball. Instead, Dave Stieb and his 7.9 WAR and his adjusted ERA+ of 146 would likely be considered a more suitable victor.

But instead, it happened in 1984, regardless, with or without the sabermetrics, give me the guy who tossed nearly twice as many innings. That is three for Stieb…

Bret Saberhagen, the 1985 American League Cy Young Award winner, was, in my opinion, the most deserving of any of the AL winners from 1982 to 1985. So maybe BBWAA actually got this one right, but where they definitely went wrong was another seventh place finish for Dave Stieb.

Bret Saberhagen: 20-6, 2.87 ERA, 32 GS, 10 CG, 1 SHO, 235.1 IP, 158 K, 211 H, 38 BB, 1.058 WHIP

Dave Stieb: 14-13, 2.48 ERA, 36 GS, 8 CG, 2 SHO, 265.0 IP, 167 K, 206 H, 96 BB, 1.140 WHIP

This one is close no matter how you spin it, even looking at the wins above replacement, Saberhagen edging Stieb, 7.1 to 6.8, and adjusted ERA+, favoring Stieb’s league best 171 over Saberhagen’s 143.

Stats aside: perhaps neither of these hurlers should have been awarded the Cy Young Award that season. Bert Blyleven compiled a 17-16 record, 3.16 ERA, 37 GS, 24 CG, 5 SHO, 293.2 IP, 206 K, 264 H, 75 BB, 1.154 WHIP, and years later, when the statistics were founded, added a 134 ERA+ with 6.8 WAR of his own…

Again, maybe they got this one right, or maybe they got it wrong… again. No matter how you spin it, there is no way the Dave Stieb should be without multiple Cy Young Awards and at least four straight top-three finishes.

Dave Stieb could have, under different circumstances, found himself on a list with Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton, Greg Maddux, Clayton Kershaw, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez, Jim Palmer, Max Scherzer, and Tom Seaver… among pitchers to win three or more Cy Young Awards, and then it might have been difficult to keep him out.

Dave Stieb was the best pitcher in baseball for a decade (1981-90) when he topped baseball tallying 49.1 wins above replacement over 2,284.2 innings pitched – 21.1 WAR than Hall of Famer Jack Morris accumulated over that period, despite Morris tossing 148.2 more innings.

Stats aside: Dave Stieb was also the best pitcher from 1980 to 1989, if my selection was too arbitrary for you, when he tallied 48.1 wins above replacement to Jack Morris’s 38.2 WAR. In fact, for a dozen years, from 1980 to 1991, Stieb led all pitchers with 55.6 WAR.

I am not (yet) prepared to say Dave Stieb belongs in the Hall of Fame, but I do believe that he deserved a better look.

[Beans]

Leave Spanky alone, guys.

[Deadpool]

Man, I wish I was old enough to appreciate Steib at the time. Those numbers are f***bonkers nuts.

[Spanky99]

Man, I wish I was old enough to appreciate Steib at the time. Those numbers are f***bonkers nuts.

 

Hahaha... youngin.

[Spanky99]

Leave Spanky alone, guys.

 

I'm good, man. lol

[Deadpool]

Hahaha... youngin.

 

What am I like, 2 years younger than you?

[Spanky99]

What am I like, 2 years younger than you?

 

5... I think.

[Deadpool]

5... I think.

 

Close enough. At my (our) age, the difference between 2 and 5 years is like a weekend bender.

[Spanky99]

Close enough. At my (our) age, the difference between 2 and 5 years is like a weekend bender.

 

lol... my all time favourite Jay!

 

Are you working through this virus, I would assume as much from home?

[Grant77]

Top 3 pitchers from each decade using fWAR:

 

1900: Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Rube Waddell

 

1910: Walter Johnson, Grover Alexander, Eddie Cicotte*

 

1920: Dazzy Vance, Eppa Rixey, Grover Alexander

 

1930: Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Paul Derringer*

 

1940: Hal Newhouser, Dutch Leonard*, Bob Feller

 

1950: Robin Roberts, Warren Spahn, Billy Pierce

 

1960: Bob Gibson, Jim Bunning, Juan Marichal

 

1970: Tom Seaver, Bert Blyleven, Gaylord Perry

(The top 9 from this decade are all inducted, including 4th place Ferguson Jenkins.

 

1980: Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris (Stieb basically tied with Morris).

 

1990: Greg Maddux, Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson,

 

2000: Randy Johnson, Roy Halladay, Javier Vazquez*

 

2010: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander

 

First, I just want to recognize that Grover Alexander and Randy Johnson were top 3 pitchers for 2 entire decades. There's some luck with the timing, but that's incredible achievement.

 

Anyways, it's clear that the author of the Stieb article used bWAR to illustrate his point and it's a good one. Even using fWAR, Stieb seems like a very obvious outlier. There are 4 other retired pitchers who didn't make the Hall of Fame and I'll address them below:

 

Eddie Cicotte was likely to make the Hall, but was banned from baseball. Not a great comp.

 

Paul Derringer and Dutch Leonard are good comps for Stieb in that they didn't do much outside of that decade. Unlike Stieb though, they played on bad teams and both ended up with a .513 win percentage, which certainly hurt both players. Derringer once went 7-27 with an ERA+ of 103, which is insane. If we're being honest though, both pitchers probably have a better Hall of Fame case than Stieb, even with the bias in the awards voting considered.

 

Vazquez' only real similarity with Steib is that he pitched in Canada and was ignored by voters in truly stunning fashion. The argument is that he was never truly dominant and just pitched a lot of innings, which is somewhat true, but we can't ignore the fact that he was right there with guys like the Big Unit and Doc for the span of a decade.

 

Does Stieb deserve to be in? I enjoy reading the arguments, but he didn't pitch enough in my opinion.

[Brownie19]

How the f*** did Pete Vuckovich win the Cy Young with a WHIP of 1.5 and a BB/K ratio of 1:1???

[Spanky99]

How the f*** did Pete Vuckovich win the Cy Young with a WHIP of 1.5 and a BB/K ratio of 1:1???

 

lol

[Grant77]

How the f*** did Pete Vuckovich win the Cy Young with a WHIP of 1.5 and a BB/K ratio of 1:1???

 

Maybe they factored in his hitting ability and great moustache.

 

He was taken by the Blue Jays in the expansion draft and kicked off a pretty cool trade chain that brought us names like Damaso Garcia, Alfredo Griffin, and Chris Chambliss.

[Brownie19]

Maybe they factored in his hitting ability and great moustache.

 

I'm sure he 'played the game the right way' and had all kinds of other attributes that voters thought actually mattered back in the day. It's just difficult to fathom a time when a WHIP of 1.5 and a BB/K ratio of 1:1 kept you in the rotation....or even in the major leagues - let alone won you the Cy Young award.

 

Yesterday I was watching the 1981 Edmonton Oilers game where Wayne scores 5 goals to get 50 goals in 39 games. After watching about 10 minutes of it, I couldn't help but come away thinking that hockey in 1981 was f***ING AWFUL and that I no longer consider Wayne Gretzky to be the best player ever to play the game. I fully imagine I'd come away with the same opinion if I watched Pete Vuckovich pitch in 1981.

[Grant77]

It's worth noting that even Dave Stieb only struck out 5.2/9. It was a different game back then with far fewer strikeouts. I'd argue that it was better in that respect.

 

Also, my reference to his hitting ability was due to his acting role in Major League. He did a nice job, check it out.

[Brownie19]

It's worth noting that even Dave Stieb only struck out 5.2/9. It was a different game back then with far fewer strikeouts. I'd argue that it was better in that respect.

 

Also, my reference to his hitting ability was due to his acting role in Major League. He did a nice job, check it out.

 

haha - that's hilarious. I never put that together.

 

I know Stieb didn't strikeout a lot (I was going to poise the question as to why, but I self concluded it's a combination of the hitters approach, the 'pitch to contact' approach and reduced velocity), but Stieb was VERY hard to hit and his WHIP was consistently in the 1.10 to 1.20 range. That range for good to great hitter hasn't changed much in the past 40 years (perhaps longer, I couldn't be bothered to look back).

[Grant77]

haha - that's hilarious. I never put that together.

 

I know Stieb didn't strikeout a lot (I was going to poise the question as to why, but I self concluded it's a combination of the hitters approach, the 'pitch to contact' approach and reduced velocity), but Stieb was VERY hard to hit and his WHIP was consistently in the 1.10 to 1.20 range. That range for good to great hitter hasn't changed much in the past 40 years (perhaps longer, I couldn't be bothered to look back).

 

If I were to guess, I would say it has a lot to do with velocity and a different approach from hitters. There were big strikeout guys like Dave Kingman and Rob Deer, but those types seemed to be a lot rarer than today. Most guys went for contact over power and that was valued by GMs of the day.

 

Looking back at the best pitcher of all time by WHIP, Addie Joss struck out only 3.5 batters per 9. It's easy today to think that strikeouts have always been the best way to judge pitchers, but that wasn't always the case. I'm certainly not making a case for Vuckovich, but it's so interesting how perceptions of pitchers have evolved.

[Brownie19]

If I were to guess, I would say it has a lot to do with velocity and a different approach from hitters. There were big strikeout guys like Dave Kingman and Rob Deer, but those types seemed to be a lot rarer than today. Most guys went for contact over power and that was valued by GMs of the day.

 

Looking back at the best pitcher of all time by WHIP, Addie Joss struck out only 3.5 batters per 9. It's easy today to think that strikeouts have always been the best way to judge pitchers, but that wasn't always the case. I'm certainly not making a case for Vuckovich, but it's so interesting how perceptions of pitchers have evolved.

 

Yeah I wasn't as surprised at the low K/9 values, but more that he also walked so many. If you can't strike people out and give up over a hit per inning - you simply can't walk over 4 per 9 innings.

[Ehjays]

 

Does Stieb deserve to be in? I enjoy reading the arguments, but he didn't pitch enough in my opinion.

 

You mention Stieb didn't pitch enough so I thought lets compare him with Halladay since they both pitched mostly for the same team

 

YRS IP CG

Stieb 16 2895 103

Roy 16 2749 67

 

They both pitched 16 years and Stieb threw more innings and more complete games.....so he didn't pitch enough?

So.....this begs the question to you.....Did Roy pitch enough?? I think we can both agree Roy deserves to be there...no doubt ...so lets leave that alone but I had to ask.

 

 

My opinion is very bias with Stieb....I think he should be in the Hall...but again that's bias, I think if you asked any of the opposing players back then, they would prefer to face Blyleven or Morris than Stieb guaranteed

and finally if Stieb pitched his entire career in Boston, New York or LA.....I think He would be in the Hall. Stay safe

[Grant77]

You mention Stieb didn't pitch enough so I thought lets compare him with Halladay since they both pitched mostly for the same team

 

YRS IP CG

Stieb 16 2895 103

Roy 16 2749 67

 

They both pitched 16 years and Stieb threw more innings and more complete games.....so he didn't pitch enough?

So.....this begs the question to you.....Did Roy pitch enough?? I think we can both agree Roy deserves to be there...no doubt ...so lets leave that alone but I had to ask.

 

 

My opinion is very bias with Stieb....I think he should be in the Hall...but again that's bias, I think if you asked any of the opposing players back then, they would prefer to face Blyleven or Morris than Stieb guaranteed

and finally if Stieb pitched his entire career in Boston, New York or LA.....I think He would be in the Hall. Stay safe

 

I get what you're saying, but pitcher usage was very different in the 80s. When Stieb paced the league in 1984, 51 other pitchers topped 200 innings and the top guys were regularly getting close to 300 innings. When Doc threw 266 in 2004, he led the league by more than 20 innings. He was an extreme outlier in that regard.

 

I do agree with your last point to an extent. Stieb did hurt himself in the awards voting with his personality. It would have been fun to watch him in one of those markets.

[Beans]

Man, I really miss baseball...

 

With today being the first day I'm actually taking this social distancing stuff seriously, it reminds me just how much I love everything about this sport—from the history to the stats to the minor leagues to the logos to the offseason to the way the game itself is so slow and precise—exactly the thing I need to temper myself.

 

And it's not here. And I really miss it.