Mookie 2021

[Laika]

Just making this thread so we can start getting excited about Toronto landing Mookie Betts next offseason.

 

- they'll have all the payroll space in the world

- there will be a wide open spot in the OF in all likelihood

- the team will be ready to win

- the organization will be ready to spend

- he will plug one of the biggest systemic holes since the organization does not have premium OF prospects

- Boston won't be able to afford him

- Some other big money teams might be at or near their payroll limits

 

It's nearly time for Rogers to hand out the biggest contract for a position player in MLB FA history. Mookie is the one to do it for.

[DigitalRock]

I'm on the Mookie "Angry Lip " Betts train.

[Krylian]

A Mookie signing would excite me, and your reasons are all solid, but I still have no faith in Rogers.

[Laika]

A Mookie signing would excite me, and your reasons are all solid, but I still have no faith in Rogers.

 

We live in a post Ryu world. You should have a shred of faith at least!

[Pendleton]

A Mookie signing would excite me, and your reasons are all solid, but I still have no faith in Rogers.

 

Ryu serious?

[Laika]

Let’s also not forget the reports/rumours that Toronto made offers or overtures to Strasburg and Cole...

[saskjayfan]

I said a couple weeks ago that Rogers should make the offer to Mookie next year, but we have to somehow convince him to come here too. It's part of the reason I want to extend Giles. I don't think we get a difference maker in a trade with Giles. He's a very good closer that helps our team more attractive to free agents.

[Laika]

I said a couple weeks ago that Rogers should make the offer to Mookie next year, but we have to somehow convince him to come here too. It's part of the reason I want to extend Giles. I don't think we get a difference maker in a trade with Giles. He's a very good closer that helps our team more attractive to free agents.

 

Has there been an elite reliever trade in recent memory that has not returned a "difference maker"?

[DigitalRock]

http://joyofsox.blogspot.com/2019/03/whats-up-with-mookie-snarl.html?m=1

 

Good read on the mookie lip snarl. Seems like he's a nice guy, snarl is not indicative of his personality.

[glory]

Yeah I don't think people realize that OF is the biggest hole in the entire org, not pitching. Who is the best OF prospect in the system? Maybe Chavez Young since it sounds like he can play CF but his bat has to catch up. The best OF on the big league roster is Grichuk who has 2 good months a year and is likely a 2 war player at best. I'm a Gurriel believer but he has to prove he can do it over a full season. It's just really bad top to bottom. Betts would be a great addition, although it's going to be a gross overpay and we'll likely regret the deal towards the end, but that's free agency.

[saskjayfan]

Has there been an elite reliever trade in recent memory that has not returned a "difference maker"?

 

Who's been traded? I wouldn't put Giles at the same level as Aroldis Chapman. Andrew Miller was at a tier above Giles and had 4 years of control. He was traded for "difference makers". It's 4 years later. What have Frazier, Sheffield or Heller done? You want to flip Giles for a guy who could be a difference maker in 3 years? We just signed Ryu. It's time to start adding pieces now, not subtracting. The goal should be competing in 2021. How can you suggest signing Betts next year and flipping Giles. The two don't go together. No team is trading a close to major league ready prospect for a year of Giles. The best your going to do is get a higher upside prospect that is 2 or 3 years away. It doesn't fit the timeline.

[saskjayfan]

Yeah I don't think people realize that OF is the biggest hole in the entire org, not pitching. Who is the best OF prospect in the system? Maybe Chavez Young since it sounds like he can play CF but his bat has to catch up. The best OF on the big league roster is Grichuk who has 2 good months a year and is likely a 2 war player at best. I'm a Gurriel believer but he has to prove he can do it over a full season. It's just really bad top to bottom. Betts would be a great addition, although it's going to be a gross overpay and we'll likely regret the deal towards the end, but that's free agency.

 

I'm the converted. Gurriel can hit. When he came back from his hamstring injury the guy was clearly not healthy and he was still getting his hits and then he could barely hobble to first.

[Jimcanuck]

Who's been traded? I wouldn't put Giles at the same level as Aroldis Chapman. Andrew Miller was at a tier above Giles and had 4 years of control. He was traded for "difference makers". It's 4 years later. What have Frazier, Sheffield or Heller done? You want to flip Giles for a guy who could be a difference maker in 3 years? We just signed Ryu. It's time to start adding pieces now, not subtracting. The goal should be competing in 2021. How can you suggest signing Betts next year and flipping Giles. The two don't go together. No team is trading a close to major league ready prospect for a year of Giles. The best your going to do is get a higher upside prospect that is 2 or 3 years away. It doesn't fit the timeline.

 

We can trade Giles now for an asset, ideally a good OF prospect. Sign Betts and Giles next year. Simple.

[saskjayfan]

We can trade Giles now for an asset, ideally a good OF prospect. Sign Betts and Giles next year. Simple.

 

sure. I would love to use the Yankees playbook. I'm not sure we're quite as desirable as the Yankees. If we trade Giles, our odds of signing him are not great. I feel if we extend today we also save 20% to 30% because I believe Giles is going to have a good year and his price will be higher next year in free agency.

[Dick_Pole]

Sign me up. Toronto even has a lame chant for him saved from the early 90's. Moo0oo0ooo00ookie.

[saskjayfan]

Sign me up. Toronto even has a lame chant for him saved from the early 90's. Moo0oo0ooo00ookie.

 

I don's see how we could possibly be in any better position to make a historic offer. In 2022 our payroll commitments are Ryu for 20, Grichuk for just over 10 and Lourdes who is just under 5 and all the kids are still pre-arb except Vlad who's super 2.

[Jimcanuck]

sure. I would love to use the Yankees playbook. I'm not sure we're quite as desirable as the Yankees. If we trade Giles, our odds of signing him are not great. I feel if we extend today we also save 20% to 30% because I believe Giles is going to have a good year and his price will be higher next year in free agency.

 

Haven't you repeatedly posted that Giles likes it in Toronto and would be open to an extension. Why then would our odds not be great?

[Laika]

Who's been traded? I wouldn't put Giles at the same level as Aroldis Chapman. Andrew Miller was at a tier above Giles and had 4 years of control. He was traded for "difference makers". It's 4 years later. What have Frazier, Sheffield or Heller done? You want to flip Giles for a guy who could be a difference maker in 3 years? We just signed Ryu. It's time to start adding pieces now, not subtracting. The goal should be competing in 2021. How can you suggest signing Betts next year and flipping Giles. The two don't go together. No team is trading a close to major league ready prospect for a year of Giles. The best your going to do is get a higher upside prospect that is 2 or 3 years away. It doesn't fit the timeline.

 

Even substantially worse relievers have returned some interesting, valuable, and in most cases MLB-ready or near MLB-ready returns in recent years.

 

Shane Greene got Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte

Chris Martin got Kolby Allard

Sergio Romo got Lewin Diaz

Keona Kela got Taylor Hearn

Roberto Osuna got Giles himself + other pieces

Chasen Shreve + Giovanny Gallegos got Luke Voit

Brad Hand got Francisco Mejia

Tony Watson got Oneil Cruz (wasn't close to MLB but a great return)

Justin Wilson got Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes

David Phelps got Pablo Lopez

Sean Doolitle + Ryan Madson got Blake Treinen, Sheldon Neuse, and Jesus f***ing Luzardo

 

This isn't really rocket science. Not trading Ken Giles probably makes the team worse over time and even has a chance to make the team worse in the mid/short term.

[Barkerfan23]

I think we need to play out this year to see where we are at with this organization

 

We could be surprised or disappointed but 2020 is a huge evaluation year

[xposbrad]

Assuming payroll next year will increase to maybe 120-130, so they'll have half their payroll for 3 players, Ryu/Grichuk/Betts? Should work ...

[max silver]

George Springer would be a great secondary target next off-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see Betts and Springer pull down Cole/Strasburg type contracts when things have settled. Springer is 3 years older than Betts, so hopefully an offer for 5 or 6 years would get it done.

[saskjayfan]

Even substantially worse relievers have returned some interesting, valuable, and in most cases MLB-ready or near MLB-ready returns in recent years.

 

Shane Greene got Joey Wentz and Travis Demeritte

Chris Martin got Kolby Allard

Sergio Romo got Lewin Diaz

Keona Kela got Taylor Hearn

Roberto Osuna got Giles himself + other pieces

Chasen Shreve + Giovanny Gallegos got Luke Voit

Brad Hand got Francisco Mejia

Tony Watson got Oneil Cruz (wasn't close to MLB but a great return)

Justin Wilson got Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes

David Phelps got Pablo Lopez

Sean Doolitle + Ryan Madson got Blake Treinen, Sheldon Neuse, and Jesus f***ing Luzardo

 

 

This isn't really rocket science. Not trading Ken Giles probably makes the team worse over time and even has a chance to make the team worse in the mid/short term.

 

In what planet does not trading Giles make us better in the short term?

 

You're listing prospects. The closer to the MLB they are the lower their ceiling. Luzardo great. Cherry pick trades, but you're talking a guy that's 3 plus years away. We traded Roy fricken Halladay in his prime and got what turned out to be nothing. Prospects are either gold or fools gold. You can go back to the top 50 lists from the last 10 years and you will see guys are all stars and guys who are busts. Even the most highly ranked prospects are far from a sure thing. You would have given your left nut to acquire Matt Moore when he was the number 1 ranked prospect in all of baseball and he's pitching in Japan now.

[Laika]

In what planet does not trading Giles make us better in the short term?

 

You're listing prospects. The closer to the MLB they are the lower their ceiling. Luzardo great. Cherry pick trades, but you're talking a guy that's 3 plus years away. We traded Roy fricken Halladay in his prime and got what turned out to be nothing. Prospects are either gold or fools gold. You can go back to the top 50 lists from the last 10 years and you will see guys are all stars and guys who are busts. Even the most highly ranked prospects are far from a sure thing. You would have given your left nut to acquire Matt Moore when he was the number 1 ranked prospect in all of baseball and he's pitching in Japan now.

 

The planet where Giles is a f***ing reliever who could explode at any minute and they should be able to get a premium return for him. Then they can just sign a free agent reliever!

 

You’ll never get it, clearly, but it is what it is

[saskjayfan]

The planet where Giles is a f***ing reliever who could explode at any minute and they should be able to get a premium return for him. Then they can just sign a free agent reliever!

 

You’ll never get it, clearly, but it is what it is

 

It's just a matter of risk tolerance. You have risk tolerance for prospects all day long. I have no problem betting on proven major league players who are not old, but not exactly young and you have to outlay significant capital for these players. There are countless examples of success and failure on both sides. I'm extremely optimistic on the young core here now and I don't want to waste opportunities to win. I want to accelerate the process not make moves to delay it. I could be over estimating how good we are now. I realize I'm a fairly optimistic guy and willing to roll the dice.

[Laika]

It's just a matter of risk tolerance. You have risk tolerance for prospects all day long. I have no problem betting on proven major league players who are not old, but not exactly young and you have to outlay significant capital for these players. There are countless examples of success and failure on both sides. I'm extremely optimistic on the young core here now and I don't want to waste opportunities to win. I want to accelerate the process not make moves to delay it. I could be over estimating how good we are now. I realize I'm a fairly optimistic guy and willing to roll the dice.

 

That's not "risk tolerance"; it's ignorance.

 

Toronto could trade Giles at the deadline for a player or players who can contribute over the next ~6 seasons, then make a point to sign a lockdown RP in free agency before 21. The MLB team would be in substantially the same position for 2021, financially and in terms of talent, had they extended Ken Giles, but they would have ~47 exciting years of control over players in addition to that.

 

Your idea doesn't accelerate any process, in theory. It just misses out on value. It has nothing to do with optimism.

 

Are you Ken Giles or something?

 

Enough of this in my Mookie thread though.

[Jimcanuck]

It's just a matter of risk tolerance. You have risk tolerance for prospects all day long. I have no problem betting on proven major league players who are not old, but not exactly young and you have to outlay significant capital for these players. There are countless examples of success and failure on both sides. I'm extremely optimistic on the young core here now and I don't want to waste opportunities to win. I want to accelerate the process not make moves to delay it. I could be over estimating how good we are now. I realize I'm a fairly optimistic guy and willing to roll the dice.

 

Definitely over estimating. Jays reaching .500 this year would be a big win.

 

Also, the attrition rate for prospects is high. Everyone knows that. It is why the more of them you have, and the better your player development program, the higher your chances of building a team like the Astros or Braves or Chisox of today.

[DigitalRock]

I'm the converted. Gurriel can hit. When he came back from his hamstring injury the guy was clearly not healthy and he was still getting his hits and then he could barely hobble to first.

 

I can't see how anyone can deny he can hit st this point, if you have a functioning brain.

[DigitalRock]

Definitely over estimating. Jays reaching .500 this year would be a big win.

 

Also, the attrition rate for prospects is high. Everyone knows that. It is why the more of them you have, and the better your player development program, the higher your chances of building a team like the Astros or Braves or Chisox of today.

 

Fully agree. I think the hays can hit 78 wins. .500 would be great this year. Year after hopefully contend.

[saskjayfan]

That's not "risk tolerance"; it's ignorance.

 

Toronto could trade Giles at the deadline for a player or players who can contribute over the next ~6 seasons, then make a point to sign a lockdown RP in free agency before 21. The MLB team would be in substantially the same position for 2021, financially and in terms of talent, had they extended Ken Giles, but they would have ~47 exciting years of control over players in addition to that.

 

Your idea doesn't accelerate any process, in theory. It just misses out on value. It has nothing to do with optimism.

 

Are you Ken Giles or something?

 

Enough of this in my Mookie thread though.

 

Yes, let's trade Giles for a guy who might provide 2 wins a season for 6 seasons in 2023 or 2024. Making a trade doesn't exist in a vacuum. If you waste all the excess value a young core like Vlad, Guerrero, Biggio, Pearson and Gurriel bring by never building a winner, you'll be talking about trading them for the next rebuild in 3 years when your prospect you've traded for hits the majors.

 

It's not exactly easy to get a guy like Giles on the free agent market. There was only one comparable reliever to Giles available on this year's market and you have to compete with 29 other teams. I prefer Giles to Harris too, and I think the comp pick you give up to sign that elite reliever will be just as valuable as what you're going to get back for Giles in trade.

[saskjayfan]

Fully agree. I think the hays can hit 78 wins. .500 would be great this year. Year after hopefully contend.

 

This team is still woefully short on pitching. We need a lot of upside surprises or we're going to have to get very active on the trade market or free agent market to get a staff that can compete. We do have a ton of financial flexibility and prospect capital so it's not out of the question, but it's a pretty big hill to climb.