General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[The Iceman]

The Raptors wouldn't even have a team today if it wasn't for VC, he saved that franchise. They didn't always have the support.

 

Is that you VINCE?

 

Not true at all. They say Vince elevated the game of basketball in Canada but Toronto Raps the franchise have always been successful profit earners.

[Jays24]

I still don't get how they moved to Memphis, one of the smaller markets. A Vancouver nba team would have been killing it today with all the Asians that are in the city now.

 

Is that you VINCE?

 

Not true at all. They say Vince elevated the game of basketball in Canada but Toronto Raps the franchise have always been successful profit earners.

 

It definitely put them on the map at a time Canada was seen negatively around the league. Toronto has issues keeping guys till this day so imagine how was it back in the late 90s/early 2000s. Even if Vince left like a bitch, he put in the time to help the city become relevant.

[JuneBug]

I fail to see how this would be the end of the Jays. One of the stronger franchise and ownership pairing. Rogers has absolutely zero interest in moving this team to a U.S. city permanently.

 

Rogers may not have a choice but to sell the team in a theoretical scenario.... Will it happen? very likely not. But did you think 12 months ago that you would be wearing a chin diaper today?!

[The Cats Ass]

Rogers may not have a choice but to sell the team in a theoretical scenario.... Will it happen? very likely not. But did you think 12 months ago that you would be wearing a chin diaper today?!

 

MLB Association may not have any choice but to fold in some scenario.... Will it happen? very likely not. But did you think 12 months ago that you would be wearing a chin diaper today?!

[JuneBug]

MLB Association may not have any choice but to fold in some scenario.... Will it happen? very likely not. But did you think 12 months ago that you would be wearing a chin diaper today?!

 

not funny, there is no such thing as MLB Association!

 

P.S. all hail The Fauch!

[THANOS]

Anybody with an Athletic subscription mind posting below?

 

https://theathletic.com/2168808/2020/10/30/blue-jays-prospects-qa-keith-law-on-nate-pearson-austin-martin-and-more/

[LGBJ29]

The Blue Jays took a meaningful step forward during the 2020 season, finishing with a winning record and a playoff appearance. Along the way, the team also saw some of their prospects make the transition to the major leagues, including top arm Nate Pearson and fan favourite Alejandro Kirk. Meanwhile, with no minor leagues, the club’s best young prospects, such as Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin, were stationed at the alternate site.

 

With the Blue Jays emerging as an up-and-coming team, the club’s prospects will figure prominently in the team’s future success. So, where do they stand? How did the lost season impact their progression? Which arms stand the best chance to start in the majors one day? And can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still develop into a superstar?

 

To answer these questions and more, we talked with The Athletic’s prospect expert, Keith Law about the Blue Jays farm system.

 

1. Heading into the season, Nate Pearson was your top-ranked Blue Jays prospect. He had a strong debut, then his fastball command wobbled in his next few outings then he landed on the injured list for a month. It’s not what anyone wanted for his debut season, but on the bright side, he came back at the end of the season throwing 100 mph out of the bullpen. What did you make of Pearson’s rookie season? Do you still see him as the future ace of the Blue Jays rotation?

 

You saw why he was my No. 1 prospect for them, and one of the best in baseball, and unfortunately saw a little of what could go wrong — and has gone wrong — for him. Guys who throw this hard don’t have the greatest track record for durability, and he’s had several injuries now, some random and some more concerning. This year’s was in the latter bucket.

 

2. We all know how hyped of a prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was. He’s now played 183 games in the major leagues, and while his numbers are above average, they’re not spectacular, either. And, fair or not, they certainly fall short of what fans had been expecting from him after he lit up the minor leagues. I know you’re still a believer in Guerrero, though. Can you give fans a few reasons to keep the faith that he will one day be an offensive superstar?

 

He has all of the tools to be an elite hitter with power, but he hits the ball on the ground way too often, a function of his swing plane — and, unfortunately, he hasn’t been the kind of hitter where coaches could just take him aside and adjust his launch angle. He’s going to have to come to this himself. But I do think he’ll get there.

 

3. Your No. 9 ranked Blue Jays prospect, Alejandro Kirk, made his MLB debut this year at 21. I don’t know that any of expected him to debut so soon, but it was a weird season all around, so maybe we should have. For someone who hadn’t played above High A, he handled major-league pitching well. In 25 PAs, he hit .375/.400/.583 and struck out just four times. Assuming we have a relatively normal minor league schedule next year, the Blue Jays will have a decision on their hands next spring, whether he breaks camp with the MLB club or gets more seasoning in the minors. From your point of view, where does his game need more development? And does he need to do that in the minors?

 

The Jays have to be thrilled to see him put the ball in play that often against major-league pitching — and he was especially good against velocity, which is one of the main things you’d worry about with a hitter going from A-ball right to the majors. He had more hits against fastballs 95+ (3) than swings and misses (1!). My guess, based on this tiny sample, is that pitchers will start attacking him with breaking stuff to see if his relative weakness against those pitches is real. That’s the first area where I’d say he might need work — but again, I’m working with a tiny sample, and just basing it on where hitters who make significant jumps to the majors tend to struggle most. And the second is receiving major-league quality stuff, which, again, we just don’t really know how far along he is.

 

All of that said, hell yeah, let him play in the majors. He might legitimately be their best option right now, and his ability to hit fastballs could be enough to make him valuable while he works on other parts of his game.

 

4. Because of injury and this year’s cancelled season, your second-ranked Jays prospect Jordan Groshans will have only played 71 pro games over the last three years. He was at the alternate site this year, but we both know intrasquad games are not totally comparable to real games. Will this hurt his individual development? And how early do you see him reaching the majors?

 

I’ve asked numerous player development people about how the loss of a full season of the minors would affect players, and the consensus is that nobody really knows, but it will affect players differently, and some might be better off while others might be worse. I would guess, and it’s just a guess, that Groshans is in the latter camp for the reason you said — the guy hasn’t faced much professional pitching. You’re right that the alternate sites aren’t a true substitute for real games, because that’s your teammate on the mound, and he’s not going to bust 96 in on your hands. In all likelihood, we don’t see him in the majors until at least 2023.

 

 

Austin Martin (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

5. I know you’re a fan of Austin Martin. Ahead of the draft, you had him as the best all-around prospect. At No. 5, the Blue Jays were certainly in the right spot at the right time to pick him. A question I get from fans all the time is: What position will Martin play? The Blue Jays have thin centre field depth, so there’s intrigue around whether he can fill that hole. But I know during summer camp and at the alternate site, he was working at third base. So, where do you think the Blue Jays should play him?

 

He should play third base. I saw him there as a sophomore and he was ridiculous. He had issues throwing this spring before the college season ended, so Vandy tried him out in the outfield, but as long as that’s behind him (and I’ve heard he’s been fine) he has a chance to be a plus-plus defender at third.

 

6. Toronto is definitely a team that has to draft and develop starting pitchers since free agency isn’t the primary way they build a rotation. Understanding it’s hard to say anything with certainty when it comes to young arms, of some of the Blue Jays top-end pitching prospects, who do you like the best to remain a starter long-term?

 

Pearson’s a starter. (Alek) Manoah’s a starter. (Anthony) Kay is too, albeit more of a back-end one. (Eric) Pardinho could be if he comes back from TJ. I actually think Patrick Murphy has the elements to start but he might be the first cousin of Those Unlucky Andersons for all his injuries.

 

(Simeon) Woods Richardson is the one major pitching prospect they have who, in my opinion, has significant reliever risk. His arm is really late, and he doesn’t have a consistent breaking ball. That’s not to say he won’t be a starter, just that I think he has a lot more reliever risk than the Jays believe he does. I think the jury’s still out on what (Adam) Kloffenstein could be since he wasn’t great in 2019 and we didn’t see him this year. I do wonder if guys like that, who throw hard and were maybe used heavily in high school, will be better off for the year away from full-bore pitching.

 

7. With the offseason, there always comes trade rumours. I think the Blue Jays are a team that has a young (read: cheap) enough roster that they actually have the room to spend money in free agency to supplement their core. And we know MLB clubs clasp their prospects tighter than ever before. But in your opinion, if the Blue Jays wanted to sell high on a prospect, who would it be?

 

Could be Woods Richardson. Although if they really wanted to sell high on a prospect, Kirk’s stock would have to be as high as ever right now. (I’m not advocating they do so.)

 

8. Over the last two seasons, the Blue Jays have graduated a lot of their high-end prospects to the majors. But, your last organizational ranking had their farm system at No. 7 and that was before Martin. Where do you view them now and does their system have an obvious strength/weakness?

 

Strength is infielders, to some extent right-handed starters, and I think potential stars, with Martin, Pearson, Orelvis (Martinez), and then to a lesser extent Kirk or Groshans. Weakness is outfield and left-handed pitching. I don’t think my organization rankings will change very much this winter except for teams that graduated several prospects or teams that had exceptionally good drafts.

 

9. Finally, which Blue Jays prospect are we not talking enough about?

 

I don’t know how Jays fans themselves view the system, but I know that in general, we don’t talk about Latin American prospects as early as do we drafted prospects, so Orelvis jumps out as someone who has a chance to be a star and doesn’t get the national attention that other prospects of his calibre do.

[The Iceman]

ATHLETIC ARTICLE, Keith Law with the answers:The Blue Jays took a meaningful step forward during the 2020 season, finishing with a winning record and a playoff appearance. Along the way, the team also saw some of their prospects make the transition to the major leagues, including top arm Nate Pearson and fan favourite Alejandro Kirk. Meanwhile, with no minor leagues, the club’s best young prospects, such as Jordan Groshans and Austin Martin, were stationed at the alternate site.

 

With the Blue Jays emerging as an up-and-coming team, the club’s prospects will figure prominently in the team’s future success. So, where do they stand? How did the lost season impact their progression? Which arms stand the best chance to start in the majors one day? And can Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still develop into a superstar?

 

To answer these questions and more, we talked with The Athletic’s prospect expert, Keith Law about the Blue Jays farm system.

 

1. Heading into the season, Nate Pearson was your top-ranked Blue Jays prospect. He had a strong debut, then his fastball command wobbled in his next few outings then he landed on the injured list for a month. It’s not what anyone wanted for his debut season, but on the bright side, he came back at the end of the season throwing 100 mph out of the bullpen. What did you make of Pearson’s rookie season? Do you still see him as the future ace of the Blue Jays rotation?

 

You saw why he was my No. 1 prospect for them, and one of the best in baseball, and unfortunately saw a little of what could go wrong — and has gone wrong — for him. Guys who throw this hard don’t have the greatest track record for durability, and he’s had several injuries now, some random and some more concerning. This year’s was in the latter bucket.

 

2. We all know how hyped of a prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was. He’s now played 183 games in the major leagues, and while his numbers are above average, they’re not spectacular, either. And, fair or not, they certainly fall short of what fans had been expecting from him after he lit up the minor leagues. I know you’re still a believer in Guerrero, though. Can you give fans a few reasons to keep the faith that he will one day be an offensive superstar?

 

He has all of the tools to be an elite hitter with power, but he hits the ball on the ground way too often, a function of his swing plane — and, unfortunately, he hasn’t been the kind of hitter where coaches could just take him aside and adjust his launch angle. He’s going to have to come to this himself. But I do think he’ll get there.

 

3. Your No. 9 ranked Blue Jays prospect, Alejandro Kirk, made his MLB debut this year at 21. I don’t know that any of expected him to debut so soon, but it was a weird season all around, so maybe we should have. For someone who hadn’t played above High A, he handled major-league pitching well. In 25 PAs, he hit .375/.400/.583 and struck out just four times. Assuming we have a relatively normal minor league schedule next year, the Blue Jays will have a decision on their hands next spring, whether he breaks camp with the MLB club or gets more seasoning in the minors. From your point of view, where does his game need more development? And does he need to do that in the minors?

 

The Jays have to be thrilled to see him put the ball in play that often against major-league pitching — and he was especially good against velocity, which is one of the main things you’d worry about with a hitter going from A-ball right to the majors. He had more hits against fastballs 95+ (3) than swings and misses (1!). My guess, based on this tiny sample, is that pitchers will start attacking him with breaking stuff to see if his relative weakness against those pitches is real. That’s the first area where I’d say he might need work — but again, I’m working with a tiny sample, and just basing it on where hitters who make significant jumps to the majors tend to struggle most. And the second is receiving major-league quality stuff, which, again, we just don’t really know how far along he is.

 

All of that said, hell yeah, let him play in the majors. He might legitimately be their best option right now, and his ability to hit fastballs could be enough to make him valuable while he works on other parts of his game.

 

4. Because of injury and this year’s cancelled season, your second-ranked Jays prospect Jordan Groshans will have only played 71 pro games over the last three years. He was at the alternate site this year, but we both know intrasquad games are not totally comparable to real games. Will this hurt his individual development? And how early do you see him reaching the majors?

 

I’ve asked numerous player development people about how the loss of a full season of the minors would affect players, and the consensus is that nobody really knows, but it will affect players differently, and some might be better off while others might be worse. I would guess, and it’s just a guess, that Groshans is in the latter camp for the reason you said — the guy hasn’t faced much professional pitching. You’re right that the alternate sites aren’t a true substitute for real games, because that’s your teammate on the mound, and he’s not going to bust 96 in on your hands. In all likelihood, we don’t see him in the majors until at least 2023.

 

 

Austin Martin (Randy Litzinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

5. I know you’re a fan of Austin Martin. Ahead of the draft, you had him as the best all-around prospect. At No. 5, the Blue Jays were certainly in the right spot at the right time to pick him. A question I get from fans all the time is: What position will Martin play? The Blue Jays have thin centre field depth, so there’s intrigue around whether he can fill that hole. But I know during summer camp and at the alternate site, he was working at third base. So, where do you think the Blue Jays should play him?

 

He should play third base. I saw him there as a sophomore and he was ridiculous. He had issues throwing this spring before the college season ended, so Vandy tried him out in the outfield, but as long as that’s behind him (and I’ve heard he’s been fine) he has a chance to be a plus-plus defender at third.

 

6. Toronto is definitely a team that has to draft and develop starting pitchers since free agency isn’t the primary way they build a rotation. Understanding it’s hard to say anything with certainty when it comes to young arms, of some of the Blue Jays top-end pitching prospects, who do you like the best to remain a starter long-term?

 

Pearson’s a starter. (Alek) Manoah’s a starter. (Anthony) Kay is too, albeit more of a back-end one. (Eric) Pardinho could be if he comes back from TJ. I actually think Patrick Murphy has the elements to start but he might be the first cousin of Those Unlucky Andersons for all his injuries.

 

(Simeon) Woods Richardson is the one major pitching prospect they have who, in my opinion, has significant reliever risk. His arm is really late, and he doesn’t have a consistent breaking ball. That’s not to say he won’t be a starter, just that I think he has a lot more reliever risk than the Jays believe he does. I think the jury’s still out on what (Adam) Kloffenstein could be since he wasn’t great in 2019 and we didn’t see him this year. I do wonder if guys like that, who throw hard and were maybe used heavily in high school, will be better off for the year away from full-bore pitching.

 

7. With the offseason, there always comes trade rumours. I think the Blue Jays are a team that has a young (read: cheap) enough roster that they actually have the room to spend money in free agency to supplement their core. And we know MLB clubs clasp their prospects tighter than ever before. But in your opinion, if the Blue Jays wanted to sell high on a prospect, who would it be?

 

Could be Woods Richardson. Although if they really wanted to sell high on a prospect, Kirk’s stock would have to be as high as ever right now. (I’m not advocating they do so.)

 

8. Over the last two seasons, the Blue Jays have graduated a lot of their high-end prospects to the majors. But, your last organizational ranking had their farm system at No. 7 and that was before Martin. Where do you view them now and does their system have an obvious strength/weakness?

 

Strength is infielders, to some extent right-handed starters, and I think potential stars, with Martin, Pearson, Orelvis (Martinez), and then to a lesser extent Kirk or Groshans. Weakness is outfield and left-handed pitching. I don’t think my organization rankings will change very much this winter except for teams that graduated several prospects or teams that had exceptionally good drafts.

 

9. Finally, which Blue Jays prospect are we not talking enough about?

 

I don’t know how Jays fans themselves view the system, but I know that in general, we don’t talk about Latin American prospects as early as do we drafted prospects, so Orelvis jumps out as someone who has a chance to be a star and doesn’t get the national attention that other prospects of his calibre do.

Edited October 31, 2020 by The Iceman

[Spanky99]

The f***...

[Brownie19]

Of course Keith Law is down on SWR. He always has to go against the grain with a couple of prospects.

[THANOS]

Of course Keith Law is down on SWR. He always has to go against the grain with a couple of prospects.

 

Yeah I shook my head on that too. How does Manoah have no reliever risk with only 2b elite pitches and developing CH, but SWR who has 4 pitches and immaculate control has lots of reliever risk lol?

[max silver]

Yeah I shook my head on that too. How does Manoah have no reliever risk with only 2b elite pitches and developing CH, but SWR who has 4 pitches and immaculate control has lots of reliever risk lol?

 

If reports from the offsite training facility are to be believed SWR also saw his stuff uptick nicely in 2020, where he has been touching upper 90's velocity and sitting mid 90's if I recall correctly. Combine this with the plus plus command and you have the makings of a potential star.

[Laika]

Yeah I shook my head on that too. How does Manoah have no reliever risk with only 2b elite pitches and developing CH, but SWR who has 4 pitches and immaculate control has lots of reliever risk lol?

 

Manoah had an elite statistical profile in college. Arguably the top D1 player based on stats alone. He missed bats, had good control, and a good batted ball profile. He was also able to get opposite handed hitters out even without much of a changeup.

 

Law's concerns RE: SWR are based partially on mechanics. But, SWR is also a control + strikeout guy without an amazing batted ball profile. The one blemish on his MiLB stats is a tendency to give up line drives. Perhaps he is filling up the zone with non-elite stuff?

 

The number of pitches someone has can be focused on too much. Give me a guy with a 70/60/45 arsenal over a guy with a 55/55/50/50 bag, or whatever.

 

Just playing Keith's advocate, here.

[Brownie19]

Yeah I shook my head on that too. How does Manoah have no reliever risk with only 2b elite pitches and developing CH, but SWR who has 4 pitches and immaculate control has lots of reliever risk lol?

 

Apparently because his arm is late?

 

Can anyone explain how that apparent mechanical flaw would make you a higher risk to end up in the bullpen? He thinks it will lead to arm injuries? He won't be consistent enough to start? I don't get it.

[Jimcanuck]

SWR is only 20. Reliever risk with 20 yr old pitcher is kind of a given, and not so or a lot less so for a top SP out of college like Manoah.

 

Here's hoping Law is wrong, again.

[Laika]

Apparently because his arm is late?

 

Can anyone explain how that apparent mechanical flaw would make you a higher risk to end up in the bullpen? He thinks it will lead to arm injuries? He won't be consistent enough to start? I don't get it.

 

Injury risk. If a pitcher's arm is not on time it increases stress on the arm.

 

This is perhaps the biggest reason Roberto Osuna was sent straight to the bullpen.

[Brownie19]

Injury risk. If a pitcher's arm is not on time it increases stress on the arm.

 

This is perhaps the biggest reason Roberto Osuna was sent straight to the bullpen.

 

And they don't even try to fix the mechanical flaw because that stress is necessary to generate the results they are getting (and need to succeed)?

[Brownie19]

SWR is only 20. Reliever risk with 20 yr old pitcher is kind of a given, and not so or a lot less so for a top SP out of college like Manoah.

 

Here's hoping Law is wrong, again.

 

Except Law lists Pardinho as a potential starter (without lumping him in with SWR as a reliver risk) even though he's younger and coming off TJS. So either that's not his logic, or he's incredibly inconsistent applying his logic.

[Laika]

And they don't even try to fix the mechanical flaw because that stress is necessary to generate the results they are getting (and need to succeed)?

 

Sometimes. It’s a case by case basis.

 

It would be hard to justify a mechanical overhaul to a player like SWR in light of the results to date. I’m assuming he also does not have a horrific arm action like Osuna... it’s probably just a bit late

[Jimcanuck]

Except Law lists Pardinho as a potential starter (without lumping him in with SWR as a reliver risk) even though he's younger and coming off TJS. So either that's not his logic, or he's incredibly inconsistent applying his logic.

 

Who the f*** knows. I don't think there is much logic to what Law says, a lot of it is his gut talking.

[Ray]

Ryu and Montoyo both finalists for Cy Young and Manager of the Year, respectively.

[Spanky99]

Teoscar Hernandez won the RF Silver Slugger Award!

[saskjayfan]

Teoscar Hernandez won the RF Silver Slugger Award!

 

Teoscar is a guy who always has a smile on his face. He's just a fantastic person. I'm so happy for Teoscar. I hope he can continue his play in the coming years. What a beauty!

[Krylian]

[Jays24]

 

Hope he passes on the cake this year lol

[EZe]

Teoscar Hernandez won the RF Silver Slugger Award!

 

Anyone else tempted to sell high ?

[Spanky99]

Anyone else tempted to sell high ?

 

Not at this juncture in time, lol. I understand where you're going with this, though. A young cheap beast breaking out is hard for me to think the Jays would do anything like that unless it's a mega-deal.

[L54]

Anyone else tempted to sell high ?

 

Yup. I’d look to move one of him or LGJ for controllable pitching. I think they both played way above their heads. Corner OF’s are always available to acquire.

[Spanky99]

Yup. I’d look to move one of him or LGJ for controllable pitching. I think they both played way above their heads. Corner OF’s are always available to acquire.

 

Ozuna, Brantley... they're the only guys available via FA?

[L54]

Ozuna, Brantley... they're the only guys available via FA?

 

Sure they’d obviously both fit. If someone comes along with a SP or infield upgrade for one of these corner outfielders I’d make that trade.