General 2020 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[Jimcanuck]

Rowdy and Teoscar both vindicate the let the kids play crowd. Edited September 6, 2020 by Jimcanuck

[BlueRocky]

Rowdy makes the routine plays at first, that’s all you can really ask from your bat-first power hitting first baseman. It’s unrealistic to ask Rowdy to be Goldschmidt or Freeman.

 

Rowdy also has been playing first base in the minors since 2013. Vladdy started in July, fans need to understand it will take some time.

[max silver]

Rowdy makes the routine plays at first, that’s all you can really ask from your bat-first power hitting first baseman. It’s unrealistic to ask Rowdy to be Goldschmidt or Freeman.

 

Rowdy also has been playing first base in the minors since 2013. Vladdy started in July, fans need to understand it will take some time.

 

I think Vladdy has a chance to be a pretty good first baseman, he has pretty good hands and he's naturally far more athletic than Rowdy, he just needs to get his weight under control.

[Deadpool]

I went toe to toe with board heavyweights, supporting Rowdy over EE

 

Hey, that's unfair. I was very clear that I wanted neither of those two.

[Jimcanuck]

Hey, that's unfair. I was very clear that I wanted neither of those two.

 

I'm referring to board heavyweights, not you.

[Deadpool]

I'm referring to board heavyweights, not you.

 

I deserved that.

[Dokken]

Rowdy, Teoscar Hernandez too...

 

Beyond the numbers Vladdy just looks so hopeless sometimes to the TV scouts

 

Olerud363 TV Scout scouting report

 

Everybody crushed the red sox bad pitching except for the fat guy who left a gazillion on base. Jays would of scored 15 runs if it wasn't for the fat guy. His fat stomach kept him from getting the bat around and he popped up a couple and struck out a bunch

 

End TV Scouting report

 

Have to say today's scouting report is a bit different then the ussuall 110 mph ground balls scouting report. Maybe he shouldn't fix the launch angle after all.

 

Not sure how much of this is 'tongue in cheek', but I seriously think Vlad's excess bulk is affecting his hitting. If he could get to his Feb. physical form, he might be a lot better off.

[Jimcanuck]

Not sure how much of this is 'tongue in cheek', but I seriously think Vlad's excess bulk is affecting his hitting. If he could get to his Feb. physical form, he might be a lot better off.

 

For sure, excess weight generally leads to worse outcomes. To what extent in Vladdy's case is hard to say. He's hit all his life with a big ass and excess lbs. I tend to think it has a limited impact, and there are more significant factors at play. Flab does not lead to wild swings at bad pitches.

[Olerud363]

Not sure how much of this is 'tongue in cheek', but I seriously think Vlad's excess bulk is affecting his hitting. If he could get to his Feb. physical form, he might be a lot better off.

 

Obviously you can't judge a player on one game, but Vlad has some days where he just looks like a fat slob who can't hit. Everybody has games where they look awful but most guys aren't as fat as Vlad and weren't the greatest hitting prospect ever.

 

A casual who watches a game every Sunday would turn on today's game and be like WTF??? They would of heard that Vlad was suppose to be good, and be like "Why can't the fat kid get around on s***** red sox pitchers that the rest of the team is terrorizing??, f*** this fat kid", then they'd tweet to Wilner who scolds them (seriously).

 

Hopefully he loses some weight. I seem to remember him looking much better in 2018, stocky but quick.

[Ex Player]

For sure, excess weight generally leads to worse outcomes. To what extent in Vladdy's case is hard to say. He's hit all his life with a big ass and excess lbs. I tend to think it has a limited impact, and there are more significant factors at play. Flab does not lead to wild swings at bad pitches

It actually does. It slows down your reaction time a tiny bit, which means you can't wait on pitches as long as you could at a lighter weight. A pot belly is not a good thing to have if you want good batspeed

[Jimcanuck]

It actually does. It slows down your reaction time a tiny bit, which means you can't wait on pitches as long as you could at a lighter weight. A pot belly is not a good thing to have if you want good batspeed

 

I said it has an impact.

 

And batspeed is clearly not a Vladdy problem.

[Ex Player]

I said it has an impact.

 

And batspeed is clearly not a Vladdy problem

I'm pretty sure Vlad could have even better batspeed if he dropped some weight

[Deadpool]

It actually does. It slows down your reaction time a tiny bit, which means you can't wait on pitches as long as you could at a lighter weight. A pot belly is not a good thing to have if you want good batspeed

 

The implication here is that he's fatter in September than he was in August when he had a 142 wRC+. By all accounts he's actually lost weight since then...

 

Obviously his conditioning improving would benefit him, but he's 21 and he's comfortably above league average already, and has had stretches where he's been phenomenal.

 

And, I mean, you simply cannot EVER complain about Vladdy's bat speed, the guy routinely has balls leave his bat at 110+ MPH, even if he's drilling them directly into the ground. (I just checked, and the Jays have 2 of the top 5 hardest hit balls this year, Tellez being #1 at 117.4) Vladdy is #7 in all of baseball on balls hit 95 MPH+ with 57 (right behind Teo who has 58, man he's been amazing this year...)

 

Vladdy CRUSHES baseballs.

[Dokken]

The implication here is that he's fatter in September than he was in August when he had a 142 wRC+. By all accounts he's actually lost weight since then...

 

Obviously his conditioning improving would benefit him, but he's 21 and he's comfortably above league average already, and has had stretches where he's been phenomenal.

 

And, I mean, you simply cannot EVER complain about Vladdy's bat speed, the guy routinely has balls leave his bat at 110+ MPH, even if he's drilling them directly into the ground. (I just checked, and the Jays have 2 of the top 5 hardest hit balls this year, Tellez being #1 at 117.4) Vladdy is #7 in all of baseball on balls hit 95 MPH+ with 57 (right behind Teo who has 58, man he's been amazing this year...)

 

Vladdy CRUSHES baseballs.

 

Yes, it is not a matter of bat speed and resulting exit velocity. It is more a matter of reaction time to get the bat around into the 'damage-generating' zone. I'm just thinking the 'bulk' is inhibiting his reaction to contact time interval, and you know they say when a guy "fouled that one straight back" it is thought by many that it is because he is a bit late. Same with Vlad and pounding the ball into the ground?!

[Deadpool]

Yes, it is not a matter of bat speed and resulting exit velocity. It is more a matter of reaction time to get the bat around into the 'damage-generating' zone. I'm just thinking the 'bulk' is inhibiting his reaction to contact time interval, and you know they say when a guy "fouled that one straight back" it is thought by many that it is because he is a bit late. Same with Vlad and pounding the ball into the ground?!

 

So, what happened during the 110 PAs he had in August then? The weight wasn't an issue then (which, BTW, represents the bulk, no pun intended, of his PAs this season)?

[Dokken]

So, what happened during the 110 PAs he had in August then? The weight wasn't an issue then (which, BTW, represents the bulk, no pun intended, of his PAs this season)?

 

excellent question. I think this is a true triple-crown candidate, BUT with piss-poor conditioning, he becomes an inconsistent hitter with flashes of brilliance ?????

[Olerud363]

So, what happened during the 110 PAs he had in August then? The weight wasn't an issue then (which, BTW, represents the bulk, no pun intended, of his PAs this season)?

 

His good month wasn't that good for a good month. Juan Soto had like a 1.250 OPS in August, Vlad's so called "good" month is below Soto's average month.

 

There is quite a bit of random variability month to month. A great hitter's best months have an OPS way above 1.000.

 

Putting up .880 OPS months followed by .600 OPS months is replacement level.

[Deadpool]

His good month wasn't that good for a good month. Juan Soto had like a 1.250 OPS in August, Vlad's so called "good" month is below Soto's average month.

 

There is quite a bit of random variability month to month. A great hitter's best months have an OPS way above 1.000.

 

Putting up .880 OPS months followed by .600 OPS months is replacement level.

 

Look, we all know that you loathe Vladdy with every fibre of your being, but this is dumb even for you.

[Olerud363]

Look, we all know that you loathe Vladdy with every fibre of your being, but this is dumb even for you.

 

I don't loathe Vladdy, and would be ecstatic to see him succeed and am rooting for him.

 

You are cherry picking Vlad's best month to make your case. Do you think .900 OPS hitters just put up month after month of .900 OPSs?? That's not how it works.

 

A good hitter's best months are mind blowing 1.200 OPS months.

 

To claim Vlad is good because in a good month he'll put up a .890 OPS is silly. Monthly OPS have a high standard deviation. If Vlad becomes good he'll be putting up 1.100++ OPSs in his good months.

[Olerud363]

BABIP luck?

 

Yeah. Highest monthly OPS is not a good metric. Not just BABIP luck, but in one month, say 100 at bats, 2 homers are worth about 100 OPS points (80 slugging and 20 on base). You pull a couple of balls hard instead of hitting to center and it changes the month. Lots of luck, the ball park, the opposing pitchers, randomly missing or crushing hittable pitches.

 

Right now Vlad is old Albert Pujols, old Albert Pujols has OPSs ranging from .600 to about .900 any month right where Vlad is.

 

We all wanted Vlad to be young Albert Pujols with monthly OPSs ranging from .800 to 1.100 or so.

 

Hopefully it still happens.

[Scion]

Looking a bit deeper into August it looks like Vlad's BABIP regressed towards his career average and Vlad chased less which lead to more walks and less strikeouts. The GB rate was still worrying though, and until that is corrected I'm not sure we are going to see the elite bat that Vlad was projected to have.

[goldbug103]

His good month wasn't that good for a good month. Juan Soto had like a 1.250 OPS in August, Vlad's so called "good" month is below Soto's average month.

 

There is quite a bit of random variability month to month. A great hitter's best months have an OPS way above 1.000.

 

Putting up .880 OPS months followed by .600 OPS months is replacement level.

 

Agreed.And so far through one full season of at bats Fatty appears to be replacement level or even less considering his defensive value. I really want him to get better and succeed. But at this rate the Jays are better served keeping Tellez at first and signing a competent DH bat. Fatty can work out his bat path problems elsewhere. Alternatively Fatty can lose 50 pounds and move over to third base.

[Deadpool]

Looking a bit deeper into August it looks like Vlad's BABIP regressed towards his career average and Vlad chased less which lead to more walks and less strikeouts. The GB rate was still worrying though, and until that is corrected I'm not sure we are going to see the elite bat that Vlad was projected to have.

 

Realistically, Vladdy had a fairly normal BABIP in August, a horrid one in July and a below average one so far in September. He's hitting more fly balls and fewer grounders in September as well (though his LD% is down a bit, but nowhere near as bad as it was in July, it was 4.5%)

 

Again, he's doing this all as a 21 year old in the majors. At that age the vast majority of players are in low-A ball.

 

It would have been thrilling if he came up at 20 and was immediately the best hitter in baseball, and it truly sucks that he only hit the ground at a speedy jog rather than a full-on sprint, but FFS, he clearly has nothing to gain in the minors, as he destroyed every level as a teenager. He either develops in the MLB or you continue to let him face pitching that he's already resoundingly defeated.

 

While you may see August as an outlier, it's likely more a glimpse of him starting to put it together against more advanced competition.

[Olerud363]

Looking a bit deeper into August it looks like Vlad's BABIP regressed towards his career average and Vlad chased less which lead to more walks and less strikeouts. The GB rate was still worrying though, and until that is corrected I'm not sure we are going to see the elite bat that Vlad was projected to have.

 

It's not a good sign when identifiable problems are worse the next year. The weight and the ground ball rate

 

from 2019 to 2020 the weight went from what 260 to 270 or so?? Who knows exactly. (Pandemic influenced this, but others spent the lockdown training and came back fine).

 

ground ball rate went from 47% to 56%.

 

The narrative that people "hate" Vlad is so stupid. No one hates him. How is bringing up stats equivalent to hating??

 

We're suppose to say "Vlad came in at 280 and had a 65% ground ball rate for the first 6 weeks, but weight is already down to 265 and ground ball rate is now under 60, I love you Vlad, you are a legend."

[Deadpool]

It's not a good sign when identifiable problems are worse the next year. The weight and the ground ball rate

 

from 2019 to 2020 the weight went from what 260 to 270 or so?? Who knows exactly. (Pandemic influenced this, but others spent the lockdown training and came back fine).

 

ground ball rate went from 47% to 56%.

 

The narrative that people "hate" Vlad is so stupid. No one hates him. How is bringing up stats equivalent to hating??

 

We're suppose to say "Vlad came in at 280 and had a 65% ground ball rate for the first 6 weeks, but weight is already down to 265 and ground ball rate is now under 60, I love you Vlad, you are a legend."

 

You have literally no idea what his weight is, you are guessing. That simply isn't publicly available information.

 

You're also comparing 514 PAs last season to 160 this season.

 

GB% this year has gone from 68.2% in July, to 56.1% in August to 46.2% in September so far, that is an improvement of over 20% already this year. Of the top 5 players on the Jays with the lowest GB% you have Janssen (the lowest), Drury, Espinal, Shaw and Teo is #2 for goo measure, so GB% != success.

 

I don't think you hate Vlad because you bring up stats, I think you hate Vlad because you INCESSANTLY try to compare him to the best players in the league, you take every opportunity to s*** on him. Objectively he's been an asset to the team, and since nobody on the "f*** Vladdy" squad seems to remember this or think it's remotely relevant, he's doing this as the youngest player on the team. HE. IS. LEARNING. HOW. TO. PLAY. MAJOR. LEAGUE. BASEBALL. AT. AN. AGE. WHERE. MOST. BASEBALL. PLAYERS. ARE. IN. THE. LOW. MINORS.

[polar bear]

excellent question. I think this is a true triple-crown candidate, BUT with piss-poor conditioning, he becomes an inconsistent hitter with flashes of brilliance ?????

 

Flashes of brilliance ? I must have missed that game:confused:

[Laika]

Look, we all know that you loathe Vladdy with every fibre of your being, but this is dumb even for you.

 

Hard disagree. His point is clear and correct.

[dineke]

Odds that Vlad has the worst career out of the son of major leaguer prospects? lol

[Scion]

Realistically, Vladdy had a fairly normal BABIP in August, a horrid one in July and a below average one so far in September. He's hitting more fly balls and fewer grounders in September as well (though his LD% is down a bit, but nowhere near as bad as it was in July, it was 4.5%)

 

Again, he's doing this all as a 21 year old in the majors. At that age the vast majority of players are in low-A ball.

 

It would have been thrilling if he came up at 20 and was immediately the best hitter in baseball, and it truly sucks that he only hit the ground at a speedy jog rather than a full-on sprint, but FFS, he clearly has nothing to gain in the minors, as he destroyed every level as a teenager. He either develops in the MLB or you continue to let him face pitching that he's already resoundingly defeated.

 

While you may see August as an outlier, it's likely more a glimpse of him starting to put it together against more advanced competition.

 

Nowhere did I say august was an outlier. Regression towards the mean can be positive or negative, it is just towards the average. I also dont believe he is a bust, I just think there are worrying trends in his profile that need to be corrected for him to reach his potential and I'm not convinced they are weight related.

[Scion]

You have literally no idea what his weight is, you are guessing. That simply isn't publicly available information.

 

You're also comparing 514 PAs last season to 160 this season.

 

GB% this year has gone from 68.2% in July, to 56.1% in August to 46.2% in September so far, that is an improvement of over 20% already this year. Of the top 5 players on the Jays with the lowest GB% you have Janssen (the lowest), Drury, Espinal, Shaw and Teo is #2 for goo measure, so GB% != success.

 

I don't think you hate Vlad because you bring up stats, I think you hate Vlad because you INCESSANTLY try to compare him to the best players in the league, you take every opportunity to s*** on him. Objectively he's been an asset to the team, and since nobody on the "f*** Vladdy" squad seems to remember this or think it's remotely relevant, he's doing this as the youngest player on the team. HE. IS. LEARNING. HOW. TO. PLAY. MAJOR. LEAGUE. BASEBALL. AT. AN. AGE. WHERE. MOST. BASEBALL. PLAYERS. ARE. IN. THE. LOW. MINORS.

 

Small sample size bro. Also look at his first half GB rate and compare it to his second half. It ain't a 20% improvement...