Jays Midyear Review

[Ray]

Totally agree but the question is how much is he worth. I said 5 yr /$80M in the thread that addressed this a while back. But as he continues to go out and perform well, his stock continues to rise. Whether that can be appropriately leveraged in a July trade deal remains to be seen.

 

Why on earth would we pay Stroman $80M when comparable guys like Sonny Gray are getting $40M, and better pitchers like Kyle Hendricks are also getting around $60M.

 

The valuation gap between Stroman and the front office is probably far too large to overcome at this point. He likely wants far too much than what the front office is willing to give and what the market dictates he should get.

[Ray]

I echo most everyone's sentiments on here. I'm confident enough in the hitting core of Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, and Gurriel Jr. at this point. I still have faith that Jansen will turn it around offensively, and given the tremendous strides he's made defensively, he's looking like an incredibly valuable piece if/when he puts it together. This is exactly why I think we should go ahead and supplement this core with some premium free agent talent this offseason. I can definitely envision a scenario where if we add 1-2 good hitters in that lineup via free agency and/or trade, we might actually be an above average hitting team next season.

 

As for the Teoscars, Drurys, McKinneys, Tellez's, and Alfords of the world, I would proceed ahead with the notion that they are what they are, even though it doesn't quite make sense to write them off just yet. But you shouldn't be counting on them to break out and become viable everyday players. It should end up being a happy surprise if it does.

 

The pitching in this system is a bit of an enigma to me. There's a ton of young controllable arms that are going to be coming up/ready relatively soon. It's to the point where I think we'd be terrible unlucky if we don't end up getting 1-2 league average starters and a couple solid bullpen pieces from the following group:

 

AAA: Zeuch, Merryweather, Paulino, Pannone, Reid-Foley, Sopko, Waguespack,

AA: Nate Pearson, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Zach Logue, Yennsy Diaz,

A+: Allgeyer, Joey Murray, Josh Winckowski

 

Not counting whoever we end up getting from the Giles and Stroman trades.

 

Again, I would still try to supplement the major league rotation with 1 or 2 free agents or trade acquisitions as well. In a perfect world, all those guys will still be starting in the minors next season and will force your hand instead of you having to count on them to break out.

[wk680]

Why on earth would we pay Stroman $80M when comparable guys like Sonny Gray are getting $40M, and better pitchers like Kyle Hendricks are also getting around $60M.

 

The valuation gap between Stroman and the front office is probably far too large to overcome at this point. He likely wants far too much than what the front office is willing to give and what the market dictates he should get.

 

Stroman had 3.4 fWAR in 2016 add 3.2 fWAR in 2017, with about 200 ip in both. Had a down season in 2018 but is back again on pace to hit close to 200 ip with 3.5+ fWAR. So, if you go with the 1 WAR is worth about $8M, then a 5 yr contract at $16M per year would seem to be a decent value proposition with his track record and age. It is also important to consider that , as the other poster said, free agents are not knocking down the door to come to the Jays, so why not just pay your own guy (who actually wants to stay) what you would need to pay someone to come in from the outside for similar results.

[Jonn]

Jansen's WAR is still higher than Vlady's in a similar number of games and PA's.

 

That's either encouraging as it means his defense has been great and thus when the bat comes around, he'll be a solid starting catcher.

 

Or it's really sad how poorly Vlady's first couple months in the majors have gone.

 

I am surprised how people have turned a blind eye to Vlad's so so start. Yes hes hit balls hard and yes he went on a great power stretch. But outside of that hes been pretty meh.

[Abomination]

I am surprised how people have turned a blind eye to Vlad's so so start. Yes hes hit balls hard and yes he went on a great power stretch. But outside of that hes been pretty meh.

 

I'm pretty sure what we're seeing right now is Vladdy at his worst, and he's still almost league average. I don't think anyone is worried about him.

[BlueRocky]

He’s 115 wRC+ and .810 OPS batting 2nd. If that’s seeing Vlad at his worst he’s in pretty good shape.

[glory]

Vlad's only 20. I expected him to come in and be a beast right away too but it doesn't always happen like that. I'm not worried.

 

I do wish they'd move him off 3B soon though. He'll hit enough to still be elite at 1B. The bat will be more important than any defensive value he will ever provide. Nothing wrong with having him at third this year since the team sucks, but long term I hope the plan is to shift him over.

[saskjayfan]

I echo most everyone's sentiments on here. I'm confident enough in the hitting core of Vlad, Bichette, Biggio, and Gurriel Jr. at this point. I still have faith that Jansen will turn it around offensively, and given the tremendous strides he's made defensively, he's looking like an incredibly valuable piece if/when he puts it together. This is exactly why I think we should go ahead and supplement this core with some premium free agent talent this offseason. I can definitely envision a scenario where if we add 1-2 good hitters in that lineup via free agency and/or trade, we might actually be an above average hitting team next season.

 

As for the Teoscars, Drurys, McKinneys, Tellez's, and Alfords of the world, I would proceed ahead with the notion that they are what they are, even though it doesn't quite make sense to write them off just yet. But you shouldn't be counting on them to break out and become viable everyday players. It should end up being a happy surprise if it does.

 

The pitching in this system is a bit of an enigma to me. There's a ton of young controllable arms that are going to be coming up/ready relatively soon. It's to the point where I think we'd be terrible unlucky if we don't end up getting 1-2 league average starters and a couple solid bullpen pieces from the following group:

 

AAA: Zeuch, Merryweather, Paulino, Pannone, Reid-Foley, Sopko, Waguespack,

AA: Nate Pearson, Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, Zach Logue, Yennsy Diaz,

A+: Allgeyer, Joey Murray, Josh Winckowski

 

Not counting whoever we end up getting from the Giles and Stroman trades.

 

Again, I would still try to supplement the major league rotation with 1 or 2 free agents or trade acquisitions as well. In a perfect world, all those guys will still be starting in the minors next season and will force your hand instead of you having to count on them to break out.

 

how are 1-2 league average starters going to compete with the Yankees? We need a front end of the rotation arms, not a bunch of back end of the rotation starters. Do you really want to dip into the free agent pool for pitchers? One free agents won't come here and look at the free agents coming up in the next two years. Free agent pitching deals can be a crap shoot. Stroman doesn't rely on power to be effective. He will be 30 in year one of his free agent extension, not 31 or 32. Stroman's relatively low risk in terms of the risk that pitcher's typically carry imo. I think his stuff will hold up fairly well and he has shown to be fairly durable with no major arm injuries.

[saskjayfan]

Vlad's only 20. I expected him to come in and be a beast right away too but it doesn't always happen like that. I'm not worried.

 

I do wish they'd move him off 3B soon though. He'll hit enough to still be elite at 1B. The bat will be more important than any defensive value he will ever provide. Nothing wrong with having him at third this year since the team sucks, but long term I hope the plan is to shift him over.

 

maybe we can sign donaldson in the offseason!

[saskjayfan]

He’s 115 wRC+ and .810 OPS batting 2nd. If that’s seeing Vlad at his worst he’s in pretty good shape.

 

I thought Vlad's wRC+ was 94 and with a .726 OPS..lol. I'm not really worried about Vlad, but I'm not counting his minor league stats.

[Bobthe4th]

I thought Vlad's wRC+ was 94 and with a .726 OPS..lol. I'm not really worried about Vlad, but I'm not counting his minor league stats.

 

He is quoting Vlad’s stats when he hits second in the lineup.

[Bobthe4th]

how are 1-2 league average starters going to compete with the Yankees? We need a front end of the rotation arms, not a bunch of back end of the rotation starters. Do you really want to dip into the free agent pool for pitchers? One free agents won't come here and look at the free agents coming up in the next two years. Free agent pitching deals can be a crap shoot. Stroman doesn't rely on power to be effective. He will be 30 in year one of his free agent extension, not 31 or 32. Stroman's relatively low risk in terms of the risk that pitcher's typically carry imo. I think his stuff will hold up fairly well and he has shown to be fairly durable with no major arm injuries.

 

1-2 league average starters won’t allow us to compete, but will solidify the rotation in the second year of a (hopefully) relatively quick rebuild.

 

Extending Stroman won’t allow us to compete next year either.

 

I want to extend Stroman too, but it’s clear it’s not going to happen as the FO doesn’t want to pay him what he wants. I guess from their point of view they’d rather overpay a starter when we are close to competing again. There will always be pitchers who will sign wherever the money is.

[Ray]

how are 1-2 league average starters going to compete with the Yankees? We need a front end of the rotation arms, not a bunch of back end of the rotation starters. Do you really want to dip into the free agent pool for pitchers? One free agents won't come here and look at the free agents coming up in the next two years. Free agent pitching deals can be a crap shoot.

 

Or you know, trade for Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole like the Astros did. Free agency isn't the only option here. Obviously you're hoping Nate Pearson becomes a front of the rotation guy and Hector Perez finally figures out command (or control?) and becomes a #2, but not only does that have a small likelihood of occurring, if that DOES happen, they also have to prove they can stay (a) healthy ( consistent. Tampa Bay is going through this right now. Blake Snell is struggling mightily after a Cy Young season. Tyler Glasnow is out with a forearm strain. Brent Honeywell is out with TJ. Young pitchers are a landmine.

 

And having cost controlled optionable backend guys is hardly the worst thing in the world. The reason you'll be able to pay those top of the rotation guys (and other major league talent around the field) their hefty salaries is because the Borucki's, Thorntons, Zeuch's and others will be making depressed salaries for 6 seasons.

 

Stroman had 3.4 fWAR in 2016 add 3.2 fWAR in 2017, with about 200 ip in both. Had a down season in 2018 but is back again on pace to hit close to 200 ip with 3.5+ fWAR. So, if you go with the 1 WAR is worth about $8M, then a 5 yr contract at $16M per year would seem to be a decent value proposition with his track record and age. It is also important to consider that , as the other poster said, free agents are not knocking down the door to come to the Jays, so why not just pay your own guy (who actually wants to stay) what you would need to pay someone to come in from the outside for similar results.

 

Since 2014 (Stroman's debut):

 

Marcus Stroman: 755.1 IP, 13.7 fWAR,

Lance Lynn: 814.2 IP, 13.8 fWAR, 3 yr $30M

Sonny Gray: 895.1 IP, 14.2 fWAR, 4 yr $38M

JA Happ: 926.1 IP, 13.7 fWAR, 2 yr $34M

 

Not to mention Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Hendricks who were both due to be free agents at the same time as Stroman and got around $50M (and are also considerably better than him). Granted some of those guys got lesser $ because of age, but I struggle to see why we should give Stroman more than twice what those other guys got when they're all inherently mid rotation guys at the end of the day. Does he deserve $40M more just because he's younger?

 

Again, I'm not against an extension. But I am against overpaying for one when similar pitchers got less.

[Brownie19]

Snell's basically the same guy he was last year. Last year he has a ton of luck, this year, no luck. Same pitcher.

[Laika]

Snell's basically the same guy he was last year. Last year he has a ton of luck, this year, no luck. Same pitcher.

 

It's crazy how far "luck" can appear to swing a pitcher's fortunes. 1.80 ERA to a 5.00+ ERA with the same K and BB rates.

 

It makes me think that perhaps there is something else under Snell's hood. Is everything really exactly the same? Are players approaching him in a different way, whereby their K/BB rates are the same but their batted ball profiles are different? I'm sure the majority of this is good luck meets bad luck but some of it might not be.

 

Remember that Chris Archer with Tampa Bay somehow managed to go from great to mediocre without a decline in K/BB rates. It basically just showed up in his ERA.

[DigitalRock]

I am surprised how people have turned a blind eye to Vlad's so so start. Yes hes hit balls hard and yes he went on a great power stretch. But outside of that hes been pretty meh.

 

The only issue with Vlad was the crazy hype, his projections for his rookie year were too high...he is fine, only 20, people expected him to hit like an all-star right of the jump.

[DigitalRock]

I thought Vlad's wRC+ was 94 and with a .726 OPS..lol. I'm not really worried about Vlad, but I'm not counting his minor league stats.

 

Why are his stats hitting second only valid though?

[Brownie19]

It's crazy how far "luck" can appear to swing a pitcher's fortunes. 1.80 ERA to a 5.00+ ERA with the same K and BB rates.

 

It makes me think that perhaps there is something else under Snell's hood. Is everything really exactly the same? Are players approaching him in a different way, whereby their K/BB rates are the same but their batted ball profiles are different? I'm sure the majority of this is good luck meets bad luck but some of it might not be.

 

Remember that Chris Archer with Tampa Bay somehow managed to go from great to mediocre without a decline in K/BB rates. It basically just showed up in his ERA.

 

2018: 1.89 ERA 2.95 FIP, 3.16 xFIP 11.01 K/9 3.19 BB/9 .241 BABIP 88 LOB%

2019: 5.01 ERA 3.48 FIP, 3.20 xFIP 11.96 K/9 3.30 BB/9 .357 BABIP 66 LOB%

 

Are hitters taking a different approach? or is there just a ton of luck involved in those last 2 metrics?

[saskjayfan]

Or you know, trade for Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole like the Astros did. Free agency isn't the only option here. Obviously you're hoping Nate Pearson becomes a front of the rotation guy and Hector Perez finally figures out command (or control?) and becomes a #2, but not only does that have a small likelihood of occurring, if that DOES happen, they also have to prove they can stay (a) healthy ( consistent. Tampa Bay is going through this right now. Blake Snell is struggling mightily after a Cy Young season. Tyler Glasnow is out with a forearm strain. Brent Honeywell is out with TJ. Young pitchers are a landmine.

 

And having cost controlled optionable backend guys is hardly the worst thing in the world. The reason you'll be able to pay those top of the rotation guys (and other major league talent around the field) their hefty salaries is because the Borucki's, Thorntons, Zeuch's and others will be making depressed salaries for 6 seasons.

 

 

 

Since 2014 (Stroman's debut):

 

Marcus Stroman: 755.1 IP, 13.7 fWAR,

Lance Lynn: 814.2 IP, 13.8 fWAR, 3 yr $30M

Sonny Gray: 895.1 IP, 14.2 fWAR, 4 yr $38M

JA Happ: 926.1 IP, 13.7 fWAR, 2 yr $34M

 

Not to mention Carlos Carrasco and Kyle Hendricks who were both due to be free agents at the same time as Stroman and got around $50M (and are also considerably better than him). Granted some of those guys got lesser $ because of age, but I struggle to see why we should give Stroman more than twice what those other guys got when they're all inherently mid rotation guys at the end of the day. Does he deserve $40M more just because he's younger?

 

Again, I'm not against an extension. But I am against overpaying for one when similar pitchers got less.

 

why are you cherry picking the guys best contracts and ignoring all the overpaid crap contracts. Carrasoco was a lot older, with more injury risk and he took a team friendly deal. Hendricks is also a year and a half older than Stroman and he played for the cubs. He wanted the security and liked the team and took a team friendly deal. Now no young player can sign an early extension. Well look at Albies. You're not as good as him, so you get less money. That's silly.

 

Lynn had tommy John and came off a tough year, Gray had a tough year, Happ was old. We're going to trade for Verlander and Cole. Who are we going to trade for these guys? We traded for a lot of prospects who don't look so good right now. Maybe the Stroman trade will provide fantastic results. The upside is probably higher by trading him, but the risks are also much higher. Stroman might take less than 5 for 80. Maybe 5 and 65 or 70 gets it done. I'm going with the safe play and at least making him an offer.

[saskjayfan]

1-2 league average starters won’t allow us to compete, but will solidify the rotation in the second year of a (hopefully) relatively quick rebuild.

 

Extending Stroman won’t allow us to compete next year either.

 

I want to extend Stroman too, but it’s clear it’s not going to happen as the FO doesn’t want to pay him what he wants. I guess from their point of view they’d rather overpay a starter when we are close to competing again. There will always be pitchers who will sign wherever the money is.

 

The Yankees have just over 90 mil committed for 2021. That's just depressing. Sure their arb guys will eat up another 40 mil, but they can probably still spend 100+ million. Good luck out bidding the yankees in 2 years.

[Laika]

2018: 1.89 ERA 2.95 FIP, 3.16 xFIP 11.01 K/9 3.19 BB/9 .241 BABIP 88 LOB%

2019: 5.01 ERA 3.48 FIP, 3.20 xFIP 11.96 K/9 3.30 BB/9 .357 BABIP 66 LOB%

 

Are hitters taking a different approach? or is there just a ton of luck involved in those last 2 metrics?

 

LOB% is pretty hard for a pitcher to control.

 

There can be some non-luck in BABIP.

[Jimcanuck]

The Yankees have just over 90 mil committed for 2021. That's just depressing. Sure their arb guys will eat up another 40 mil, but they can probably still spend 100+ million. Good luck out bidding the yankees in 2 years.

 

Need to focus on player development, high performance team, confirmed.

 

Still need to build up the prospect pool, still too early to buy or trade for high priced vets.

[Brownie19]

LOB% is pretty hard for a pitcher to control.

 

There can be some non-luck in BABIP.

 

That was my point...doesn't it include a lot of 'luck' like BABIP?

[Ray]

why are you cherry picking the guys best contracts and ignoring all the overpaid crap contracts. Carrasoco was a lot older, with more injury risk and he took a team friendly deal. Hendricks is also a year and a half older than Stroman and he played for the cubs. He wanted the security and liked the team and took a team friendly deal. Now no young player can sign an early extension. Well look at Albies. You're not as good as him, so you get less money. That's silly.

 

Lynn had tommy John and came off a tough year, Gray had a tough year, Happ was old. We're going to trade for Verlander and Cole. Who are we going to trade for these guys? We traded for a lot of prospects who don't look so good right now. Maybe the Stroman trade will provide fantastic results. The upside is probably higher by trading him, but the risks are also much higher. Stroman might take less than 5 for 80. Maybe 5 and 65 or 70 gets it done. I'm going with the safe play and at least making him an offer.

 

That's usually how deals before free agency work. You don't get free agent value because you get access to guaranteed money earlier.

 

At the end of the day, Stroman is not a #1 or even #2 on a good team. He's prone to his down seasons due to his pitch to contact philosophy. Even during his best season in 2017, he ranked bottom 8% in the league for Hard-Hit%. He's a career 1.283 WHIP guy. He can can be a FIP overperformer or underperformer in any given year. Which #3 30-year old starter in the league with a near 1.3 career WHIP would get $80M in this day and age? This is not the same market where the Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake's of the world got $90M.

 

As for who we would trade for top of line starters, probably a package of top prospects. That's usually how trades for elite talent work. Maybe less if they're a veteran with a large contract.

[Bobthe4th]

At the end of the day, Stroman is not a #1 or even #2 on a good team. He's prone to his down seasons due to his pitch to contact philosophy. Even during his best season in 2017, he ranked bottom 8% in the league for Hard-Hit%. He's a career 1.283 WHIP guy. He can can be a FIP overperformer or underperformer in any given year. Which #3 30-year old starter in the league with a near 1.3 career WHIP would get $80M in this day and age? This is not the same market where the Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake's of the world got $90M.

 

Disagree. He’s not a genuine ace, but he’s absolutely capable of being a number 2 on a playoff team. Realistically how many actually ace level pitchers are there around the league - 15?

 

You seem really down on Stroman. But a 3 WAR starter is good for top 20-25 in the game.

[Ray]

Disagree. He’s not a genuine ace, but he’s absolutely capable of being a number 2 on a playoff team. Realistically how many actually ace level pitchers are there around the league - 15?

 

You seem really down on Stroman. But a 3 WAR starter is good for top 20-25 in the game.

 

It's not so much being down on him as much as trying to properly evaluate him. I'd like to keep him, but probably not for the amount he's going to realistically demand.

 

I simply think he gives up far too many baserunners and relies on external factors to be a true #2, also taking into account that #2 starters on competitive teams have increased in quality in recent years. They don't have to be aces necessarily, but they're better at preventing runners from reaching base and also have a higher than league average strikeout rate.

 

Let's take a look at Stroman's 2016 and 2017:

 

2016: 9.2 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.289 WHIP, 4.37 ERA

2017: 9.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.308 WHIP, 3.09 ERA

 

Fairly similar peripherals both years for Stroman, and yet dramatically different results. The main difference between both years? 68.6% LOB% in 2016, and 78.1% LOB%. The fact that his results vary greatly depending on LOB%, which also seems to have variation year to year, doesn't necessarily scream #2 to me.

[Abomination]

It's not so much being down on him as much as trying to properly evaluate him. I'd like to keep him, but probably not for the amount he's going to realistically demand.

 

I simply think he gives up far too many baserunners and relies on external factors to be a true #2, also taking into account that #2 starters on competitive teams have increased in quality in recent years. They don't have to be aces necessarily, but they're better at preventing runners from reaching base and also have a higher than league average strikeout rate.

 

Let's take a look at Stroman's 2016 and 2017:

 

2016: 9.2 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.289 WHIP, 4.37 ERA

2017: 9.0 H/9, 0.9 HR/9, 2.8 BB/9, 7.3 K/9, 1.308 WHIP, 3.09 ERA

 

Fairly similar peripherals both years for Stroman, and yet dramatically different results. The main difference between both years? 68.6% LOB% in 2016, and 78.1% LOB%. The fact that his results vary greatly depending on LOB%, which also seems to have variation year to year, doesn't necessarily scream #2 to me.

 

Ignoring the usage of results in your argument, I'm in favor of extending Stroman, but it's not a slam dunk decision. He's been trending in the wrong direction for several years now, at least in terms of xFIP.

 

2014: 3.17, 2015: 3.34, 2016: 3.41, 2017: 3.59, 2018: 3.84, 2019: 4.12.

 

That's not a trajectory you really want to see continue for another couple years.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

well if we look at his Effectiveness or Efficiency or compete for both those Years

In Question Beaver has Stroman as within a hair of each as well too!

Stroman B.E.V.R for 17 was 363 and only slightly better then his 368 he get from B.E.V.R in sixteen (think golf on Pitchers)

The closer to Zero the Better and Negative even better !

So based on this I would Say it was not Stromans fault and would suggest TeamD

Was not as good in 16 as 17 as a whole

Or we make have committed more errors

Did we ???

In comparison Right now Stroman B.E.V.R

Has him outperforming both those years

With a 341B.E.V.R to date !

 

B.E.V.R the tooth is out there, sees all !